{"id":73974,"date":"2025-04-19T18:07:16","date_gmt":"2025-04-20T01:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=73974"},"modified":"2025-04-20T20:21:46","modified_gmt":"2025-04-21T03:21:46","slug":"oh-so-close-to-end-to-oversold-trading-period-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/04\/19\/oh-so-close-to-end-to-oversold-trading-period-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Oh So Close to An End to This Oversold Trading Period! &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We finally got a breather: a calm weekday and a holiday for both the US stock and bond markets. The break felt more relieving than even <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/04\/09\/tariff-blink-an-oversold-market-rejoices-the-market-breadth\/\">the tariff pause<\/a>, a sign of just how tense things have been in the markets. Market breadth was my major headline as twice in the week, including Thursday, the oversold period looked ready to come to an end. Instead, the market only came oh so close to an end to oversold trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among the week\u2019s major developments, <a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2025\/04\/18\/an-early-look-at-stagflationary-pressures\/\">Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the Fed is stuck between stagflationary pressures<\/a>. This admission carried heavy implications, especially as <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/trump-study-whether-fire-fed-145547980.html\">President Trump considers removing Powell\u2014despite legal constraints<\/a>. This brewing and ominous conflict between the executive branch and central bank independence is likely weighing heavily on U.S. financial markets. History shows that markets react poorly when political winds and machinations capture monetary policy. The unsettling uncertainty alone could weigh heavily on both the US bond market and the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>S&amp;P 500 (SPY)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500 (SPY)<\/strong> confirmed resistance from its declining 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line). The 20DMA has been a formidable barrier ever since the index confirmed resistance at its 200DMA last month. The index should continue to trade within a tight range until a fresh negative catalyst emerges. I am still bracing for a break below recent lows based on <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/30\/200dma-signal-another-way-to-find-bottom-for-bear-market\/\">technical precedent<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"799\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) confirmed 20DMA resistance amidst tariff blinks, awaiting a fresh catalyst.\" class=\"wp-image-73959\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-SP-500-SPY.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-SP-500-SPY-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-SP-500-SPY-1320x698.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) confirmed 20DMA resistance amidst tariff blinks, awaiting a fresh catalyst.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>NASDAQ (COMPQ)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>NASDAQ<\/strong> also confirmed resistance at its 20DMA. More critically, the tech laden index held above the conventional bear market line &#8211; 20% down from its all-time high. This line has proven to be an important technical level, and algorithms are likely watching closely. I cautiously bought into a bounce with a calendar call spread with the short side already expired. I am ready to get more aggressive if the NASDAQ shows positive trading momentum early in the week.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1509\" height=\"799\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) recovered from its breakdown below the former all-time high and conventional bear market line, rising up towards the 20DMA only to confirm resistance.\" class=\"wp-image-73960\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1509w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1509px) 100vw, 1509px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) recovered from its breakdown below the former all-time high and conventional bear market line, rising up towards the 20DMA only to confirm resistance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>IWM<\/strong> continues to trade within its range between the conventional bear market line and the pre-pandemic high. The ETF of small caps actually gained 0.8% and outperformed the major indices. These stocks also helped bring the oversold period oh so close to an end.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"799\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rose 0.8% and churned throughout the week between the bear market line and the pre-pandemic high.\" class=\"wp-image-73961\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1320x698.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rose 0.8% and churned throughout the week between the bear market line and the pre-pandemic high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call When Oh So Close<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 19.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (Day #11 of oversold period)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 24.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The percentage of stocks trading above their 50DMAs, <strong>AT50 (MMFI)<\/strong>, remained in oversold territory for the 11th consecutive trading day. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/04\/03\/finally-oversold-but-so-what\/\">When the oversold period began<\/a>, I asked the question &#8220;so what?&#8221; At the time I was feeling the weight of a larger bear market. Now, 11 trading days in, this extended oversold period indeed reinforces bear market behavior despite <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">the short-term bullish implications of oversold trading<\/a>. My favorite technical indicator briefly crossed above the 20% oversold threshold twice during the week. On Thursday, AT50 reached 20.04%, before pulling back to 19.2%. In a bull market, this &#8220;tease&#8221; would have been enough for me to celebrate the end of oversold trading. However, with AT50 trending lower and suffering through a historically extended oversold period, I must remain measured. There are only 7 other oversold periods that have lasted longer than the current one (since 1950).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/20231029_SP-500-Performance-After-An-Oversold-Period-Ends.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"755\" height=\"467\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/20231029_SP-500-Performance-After-An-Oversold-Period-Ends.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Performance After An Oversold Period Ends\" class=\"wp-image-66372\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>S&amp;P 500 Performance After An Oversold Period Ends<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Equities<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>UNH<\/strong> suffered a post-earnings collapse of 22.4%, gapping down below both the 50DMA and 200DMA. Previously considered a defensive play, the stock is now testing the bottom of a long-term trading range dating back to late 2021. UNH is too extended to the downside for me to short, but I will fade a rally to or toward the post-earnings open. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-UnitedHealth-Group-Inc-UNH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-UnitedHealth-Group-Inc-UNH.png\" alt=\"UnitedHealth Group (UNH) plunged 22.4% post-earnings, crashing below both the 200DMA and 50DMA and nearly reaching the February intraday low.\" class=\"wp-image-73962\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Walmart Inc (WMT)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-UnitedHealth-Group-Inc-UNH.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-UnitedHealth-Group-Inc-UNH-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-UnitedHealth-Group-Inc-UNH-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-UnitedHealth-Group-Inc-UNH-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>UnitedHealth Group (UNH) plunged 22.4% post-earnings, crashing below both the 200DMA and 50DMA and nearly reaching the February intraday low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>LLY<\/strong> soared 14.3% on positive GLP-1 drug news but stopped between its 50DMA and 200DMA. It remains stuck in a trading range that has persisted since early 2024. It\u2019s a good result, but the stock still needs to break resistance to regain upward momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Eli-Lilly-And-Co-LLY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Eli-Lilly-And-Co-LLY.png\" alt=\"Eli Lilly (LLY) jumped 14.3% on GLP-1 news but stalled at resistance between 50DMA and 200DMA, nearly hitting the late March high.\" class=\"wp-image-73963\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Eli Lilly (LLY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Eli-Lilly-And-Co-LLY.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Eli-Lilly-And-Co-LLY-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Eli-Lilly-And-Co-LLY-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Eli-Lilly-And-Co-LLY-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Eli Lilly (LLY) jumped 14.3% on GLP-1 news but stalled at resistance between 50DMA and 200DMA, nearly hitting the late March high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Dollar General Corporation (DG)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>DG<\/strong> gained 4.2%, breaking out above its 200DMA for the second time this month, and the momentum suggests more upside. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/04\/03\/finally-oversold-but-so-what\/\">I pointed out DG&#8217;s strength on the first breakout<\/a> and claimed the stock is a buy on the dips. So I went into this second breakout holding a call option as the stock held 20DMA support. I cannot quite understand why this bottoming process is unfolding. My best guess is that investors are worrying about a recession that will push consumers toward discount retailers no matter how high prices go with tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dollar-General-Corp-DG.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dollar-General-Corp-DG.png\" alt=\"Dollar General (DG) rose 4.2% and broke out above its 200DMA while holding 20DMA support, nearing the late March high.\" class=\"wp-image-73964\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Dollar General (DG)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dollar-General-Corp-DG.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dollar-General-Corp-DG-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dollar-General-Corp-DG-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dollar-General-Corp-DG-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Dollar General (DG) rose 4.2% and broke out above its 200DMA while holding 20DMA support, nearing the late March high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Walmart Inc. (WMT)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>America&#8217;s favorite discount retailer is also displaying its own version of strength. <strong>WMT<\/strong> is attempting a comeback after a 6.5% post-earnings drop last month. The stock recovered from a 200DMA breakdown and now clings to 50DMA as fresh support. This resilience is another possible indicator of economic stress driving investors to discount plays.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Walmart-Inc-WMT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Walmart-Inc-WMT.png\" alt=\"Walmart (WMT) broke out above its 200DMA, rallying through its 50DMA and clinging to support.\" class=\"wp-image-73965\" title=\"Walmart (WMT) \" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Walmart-Inc-WMT.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Walmart-Inc-WMT-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Walmart-Inc-WMT-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Walmart-Inc-WMT-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Walmart (WMT) broke out above its 200DMA, rallying through its 50DMA and clinging to support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>SPDR Select Sector Fund &#8211; Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Consumer discretionary sits at the opposite end of discount retailers. Based on confirmed resistance at a downtrending 20DMA, I bought a put spread as a small hedge against my bullishness. XLY is filled with discretionary names that will likely suffer during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-Consumer-Discretionary-XLY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1608\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-Consumer-Discretionary-XLY.png\" alt=\"Select Sector SPDR Fund Consumer Discretionary (XLY) confirmed 20DMA resistance and set up a short trade.\" class=\"wp-image-73966\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Select Sector SPDR Fund Consumer Discretionary (XLY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-Consumer-Discretionary-XLY.png 1608w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-Consumer-Discretionary-XLY-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-Consumer-Discretionary-XLY-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-Consumer-Discretionary-XLY-1320x653.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1608px) 100vw, 1608px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Select Sector SPDR Fund Consumer Discretionary (XLY) confirmed 20DMA resistance and set up a short trade.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>LGIH<\/strong> continues its consistent downtrend, even approaching pandemic-era lows. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lgihomes.com\/map-search\">Its market presence<\/a> in strong-growth southern states like Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas makes this underperformance even more alarming. LGIH is one of the weakest homebuilders I follow.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-LGI-Homes-Inc-LGIH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1615\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-LGI-Homes-Inc-LGIH.png\" alt=\"LGI Homes (LGIH) is in a persistent downtrend alongside the lower bollinger band, nearing 2020 pandemic lows despite exposure to strong-growth Sun Belt markets. \" class=\"wp-image-73967\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"LGI Homes (LGIH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-LGI-Homes-Inc-LGIH.png 1615w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-LGI-Homes-Inc-LGIH-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-LGI-Homes-Inc-LGIH-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-LGI-Homes-Inc-LGIH-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1615px) 100vw, 1615px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>LGI Homes (LGIH) is in a persistent downtrend alongside the lower bollinger band, nearing 2020 pandemic lows despite exposure to strong-growth Sun Belt markets. <\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Dave &amp; Buster\u2019s Entertainment Inc. (PLAY)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>PLAY<\/strong> is slowly waking up after churning post-earnings. Insiders have been buying, including the CEO, so I am inclined to stick with PLAY until I am absolutely forced to stand down and take a loss.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dave-Busters-Entertainment-Inc-PLAY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dave-Busters-Entertainment-Inc-PLAY.png\" alt=\"Dave &amp; Buster\u2019s (PLAY) broke out above its 20DMA, preparing to test 50DMA resistance for the first time since November of 2024.\" class=\"wp-image-73968\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772\" title=\"Dave &amp; Buster\u2019s (PLAY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dave-Busters-Entertainment-Inc-PLAY.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dave-Busters-Entertainment-Inc-PLAY-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dave-Busters-Entertainment-Inc-PLAY-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-Dave-Busters-Entertainment-Inc-PLAY-1320x649.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Dave &amp; Buster\u2019s (PLAY) broke out above its 20DMA, preparing to test 50DMA resistance for the first time since November of 2024.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>While I think the current economic chaos is a poor environment for speculating, some quantum computing stocks like <strong>IONQ<\/strong> are surprisingly remaining resilient. IONQ is one of the 24.5% of stocks that is still trading above its 200DMA. However, IONQ is still one of the 81% of stocks stuck below its 50DMA. I am a buyer on a 50DMA breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-IONQ-Inc-IONQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-IONQ-Inc-IONQ.png\" alt=\"IONQ Inc (IONQ) churned between its 200DMA and 50DMA, testing support and resistance respectively.\" class=\"wp-image-73969\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772\" title=\"IONQ Inc (IONQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-IONQ-Inc-IONQ.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-IONQ-Inc-IONQ-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-IONQ-Inc-IONQ-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-IONQ-Inc-IONQ-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><strong>IONQ Inc (IONQ) churned between its 200DMA and 50DMA, testing support and resistance respectively.<\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1608\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) remains oversold at 19.2%, unable to hold a brief breakout above 20%. The oversold period is now a bearish 11 days long.\" class=\"wp-image-73970\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT50-MMFI.png 1608w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT50-MMFI-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT50-MMFI-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT50-MMFI-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1608px) 100vw, 1608px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) remains oversold at 19.2%, unable to hold a brief breakout above 20%. The oversold period is now a bearish 11 days long.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) churned with no real progress, maintaining levels established during the post-tariff surge.\" class=\"wp-image-73971\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT200-MMTH.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT200-MMTH-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT200-MMTH-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/041825-AT200-MMTH-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) churned with no real progress, maintaining levels established during the post-tariff surge.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods<\/strong>: Day #11 under 20% (oversold), Day #15 under 30%, Day #36 under 40%, Day #48 under 50%, Day #73 under 60%, Day #174 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong> long SPY shares and put spread, long QQQ call, long DG call, long PLAY<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/drduru.bsky.social\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BlueSky<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/ahan.analytics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>* Blog notes: this blog was written based on the heavily edited transcript of the following video that includes a live review of the stock charts featured in this post. I used ChatGPT to process the transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Oh So Close to An End to This Oversold Trading Period! #stockmarket #technicalanalysis\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/wT4pOwfpL4k?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary We finally got a breather: a calm weekday and a holiday for both the US stock and bond markets. The break felt more relieving than even the tariff pause, a sign of just how tense things have been in the markets. Market breadth was my major headline as twice in the week, &#8230; <a title=\"Oh So Close to An End to This Oversold Trading Period! &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/04\/19\/oh-so-close-to-end-to-oversold-trading-period-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":73994,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,483,482,1576,300,219,35,491,3604,338,62,982],"tags":[2832,2201,2529,3318,3319,3725,3605,3606,2218,909,1450,1449,3723,413,2528,65,3718,362,3722,3724,3090,1177,326],"class_list":["post-73974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-entertainment","category-health-care","category-high-tech","category-housing","category-oversold","category-quantum-computing","category-retail","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-at50","tag-compq","tag-dave-and-busters-entertainment","tag-dg","tag-dollar-general-corporation","tag-eli-lily-and-company","tag-ionq","tag-ionq-inc","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-lgi-homes","tag-lgih","tag-lly","tag-nasdaq","tag-play","tag-sp-500","tag-spdr-select-sector-fund-consumer-discretionary","tag-spy","tag-unh","tag-unitedhealth-group-incorporated","tag-walmart-inc","tag-wmt","tag-xly"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oh So Close to An End to This Oversold Trading Period!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The stock market came so close to ending oversold trading, but political and market tensions linger as Fed Chair Powell talks stagflation.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/04\/19\/oh-so-close-to-end-to-oversold-trading-period-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oh So Close to An End to This Oversold Trading Period! 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