{"id":73145,"date":"2025-03-17T20:32:27","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T03:32:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=73145"},"modified":"2025-03-17T20:32:28","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T03:32:28","slug":"cool-follow-through-for-bear-market-relief-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/03\/17\/cool-follow-through-for-bear-market-relief-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Cool Follow-Through for the Bear Market Relief &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock market saw a cool and strong follow-through day, reinforcing the potential for a sustainable low (NOT a bottom). Based on changes in market breadth, I discussed the potential for a sustainable low in &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/03\/15\/finally-some-convincing-bear-market-relief-the-market-breadth\/\">FINALLY, Some Convincing Bear Market Relief \u2013 The Market Breadth<\/a>&#8220;. A flip in the short-term trends for the major indices <a href=\"https:\/\/swingtradebot.com\/equities\/general-market-analysis?trading_date=2025-03-17\">from negative to neutral or positive<\/a> further supported the notion of a sustainable low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500 (SPY)<\/strong> is advancing toward resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA) (the blue line). This level looms larger than usual given <a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2025\/03\/14\/maximum-pressure-for-the-federal-reserve\/\">the upcoming decision on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The Fed may trigger a deciding factor on the direction of a 200DMA pivot.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/031525-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/eqPqQlLq\/\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) gained 2.1% in a strong rebound headed towards the 200DMA, but remains in a downtrend.\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><strong>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) is reaching for resistance at the 200-day moving average ahead of the Fed\u2019s decision.<\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>NASDAQ (COMPQ)<\/strong> struggled despite the market&#8217;s strength, gaining only 0.3% as big-cap tech stocks wavered and weakened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nvidia (NVDA): Dropped 1.8%, leading me to buy a put option at its 20-day moving average as a hedge against my QQQ position.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Meta (META): Flat on the day despite prior momentum. I bought some shares.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Microsoft (MSFT): Failed to hold gains, fading near its 22-day moving average.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Amazon (AMZN): Lost 1%, continuing its struggle at the 200-day moving average, where it has faced resistance. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tesla (TSLA): Dropped 4.8%, reversing its recent attempt to break resistance. The stock now appears poised for a retest of its 2023 breakout point.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/031525-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/PyMyQ9BT\/\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) rose 2.6% but remains deep in bearish territory below its 200DMA, churning throughout this week.\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><strong>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) underperformed, gaining only 0.3% amid weak big-cap tech stocks.<\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The <strong>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)<\/strong> gained 1.3%. The ETF of small caps looks like it will avoid a test of its official bear market line. Now IWM looks like it is stretching for a test of downtrending 20DMA (the dotted line) resistance. As part of my trading strategy, I bought call options on IWM on Friday and successfully flipped them today. This flip reflects my bear market caution &#8211; profits should not be held longer than necessary. While IWM has underperformed, I remain a long-term shareholder, trading around the core position with options.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/031525-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/D5X2ioeB\/\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) churned like the NASDAQ, and gained 2.4% to end the week, flattening its trend but still in a bear market.\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) looks like it will avoid a test of its official bear market threshold as two days of strong gains reinforce a sustainable low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With Cool Follow-Through<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 30.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 40.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>AT50 (MMFI)<\/strong>, which tracks the percentage of stocks above their 50DMAs, rose by 3.5 percentage points, climbing back above the 30% threshold. While this is a positive sign for market stabilization, it does not eliminate the possibility of quick reversals in this bear market. <strong>AT200 (MMTH)<\/strong>, which measures stocks above their 200DMA, also gained nearly 3 percentage points. This market breadth indicator of long-term health reversed all of last week&#8217;s loss and thus reinforced the cool follow-through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The VIX fell 6%, continuing its sharp decline. It is nearing the 20-level, the threshold for elevated market volatility. I was finally able to take profits on VXX put options (my last tranche).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/031525-volatility-index-VIX.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/xQs3X9pY\/\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) was unable to break out above the December high, declining and preparing for a 20DMA test.\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><strong>The VIX declined 6%, nearing the 20-level, indicating reduced market volatility.<\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Equities: In Cool Follow-Through<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Goldman Sachs Group (GS)<\/strong> was my favorite chart of the day. The investment bank&#8217;s stock confirmed a 200DMA breakout with a second higher close. GS also has a long runway ahead of testing downtrending 20DMA resistance. I am using swingtradebot to identify additional strong <a href=\"https:\/\/swingtradebot.com\/events\/5\/equities?selected_date=2025-03-17&amp;end_date=2025-03-17\">200DMA breakouts<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/031525-Micron-Technology-Inc-MU-1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/FqPJ59qz\/\" alt=\"Micron Technology (MU) broke out above the 50DMA, remaining in a trading range capped by its 200DMA.\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Micron Technology (MU)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><strong>The Goldman Sachs Group <\/strong><\/em><strong><em>(GS) gained 1.8% to confirm its 200DMA breakout.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/031525-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/QhLnHuxN\/\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) jumped to 27%, signaling strong buying power and narrowly avoiding oversold conditions.\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) climbed above 30%, indicating improved market breadth and reinforcing last week&#8217;s sustainable low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/031525-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/sjzTCCkk\/\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) climbed to 37.4%, slowing down its downward trajectory. Continued strength is needed to confirm a lasting recovery.\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) AT200 gained nearly 3 percentage points, reversing all of last week&#8217;s loss and thus reinforcing the cool follow-through rally.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods<\/strong>: Day #314 over 20%, Day #1 over 30% (overperiod ending 5 days under 30%), Day #11 under 40%, Day #23 under 50%, Day #50 under 60%, Day #151 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong> long SPY shares, long QQQ call, long NVDA put, long AMZN, long TSLA put spread, long META shares, long IWM<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/drduru.bsky.social\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BlueSky<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/ahan.analytics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>* Blog notes: this blog was written based on the heavily edited transcript of the following video that includes a live review of the stock charts featured in this post. I used ChatGPT to process the transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Cool Follow-Through for Bear Market Relief - The Market Breadth #stockmarket\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_uQJVOj11QQ?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary The stock market saw a cool and strong follow-through day, reinforcing the potential for a sustainable low (NOT a bottom). Based on changes in market breadth, I discussed the potential for a sustainable low in &#8220;FINALLY, Some Convincing Bear Market Relief \u2013 The Market Breadth&#8220;. A flip in the short-term trends for &#8230; <a title=\"Cool Follow-Through for the Bear Market Relief &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/03\/17\/cool-follow-through-for-bear-market-relief-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":73146,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,548,219,62],"tags":[1820,2832,2201,2395,208,2218,909,413,65,362,303,931],"class_list":["post-73145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breakout","category-financials","category-high-tech","category-technical-analysis","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compq","tag-goldman-sachs-group","tag-gs","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cool Follow-Through for the Bear Market Relief - The Market Breadth - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The stock market followed through with a cool and strong rally with big cap tech lagging. 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