{"id":72178,"date":"2025-01-18T22:08:07","date_gmt":"2025-01-19T06:08:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=72178"},"modified":"2025-01-18T22:12:55","modified_gmt":"2025-01-19T06:12:55","slug":"was-the-stock-market-oversold-enough-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/01\/18\/was-the-stock-market-oversold-enough-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Was the Stock Market &#8220;Oversold Enough&#8221;? &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The week opened with market breadth dropping to within five percentage points of the oversold threshold. This was the closest encounter with oversold since late October, 2023. The stock market never looked back from there. <a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2025\/01\/16\/a-fresh-opportunity-to-fade-bonds-as-a-marginal-change-in-inflation-ignites-a-near-oversold-market\/\">A favorable mid-week inflation report <\/a>helped propel the stock market with the assistance of declining long-term bond yields. The momentum was enough to reposition the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ into bullish setups. As a result, the stock market looks like it was &#8220;oversold enough&#8221;. Yet, the stock market has churned since mid-December&#8217;s last all-time highs and sits in a wide trading range. A number of political and economic uncertainties await, and the stock market actually looks like it is waiting to respond. Accordingly, until the next all-time highs, the stock market promises to continue delivering yo-yo, up and down action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) came into the week with a confirmed breakdown below its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below). A gap down open looked set to extend the pullback that started with <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/12\/18\/from-euphoria-to-oversold-in-a-day-the-market-breadth\/\">mid-December&#8217;s plunge<\/a>. Buyers jumped in and barely looked back from there. After a brief pause at 50DMA resistance on Thursday, buyers ended the week with a 50DMA breakout and a 3-week high. The confirmed breakout above the 20DMA (dashed line below) ends a short-term downtrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the S&amp;P 500 is repositioned for bullish momentum, I used the opportunity to refresh a hedge against bullishness with a March $565\/550 put spread. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) broke out above the 50DMA, recovering all of its recent losses.\" class=\"wp-image-72164\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-SP-500-SPY.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-SP-500-SPY-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-SP-500-SPY-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-SP-500-SPY-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) broke out above the 50DMA, recovering all of its recent losses.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQX) went into the week with a fresh 50DMA breakdown. The tech-laden index confirmed the 50DMA breakdown despite a sharp rebound off Monday&#8217;s intraday low. Next, a fade and further weakness on Tuesday looked ominous. The post-CPI rally on Wednesday saved the NASDAQ with a 50DMA breakout that got confirmed by Friday&#8217;s gain and 20DMA breakout. The rapid sequence of bearish and bullish moves is characteristic of yo-yo action around and through important trendlines.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) broke out above the 50DMA, following through enough to break out above the 20DMA too.\" class=\"wp-image-72165\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) broke out above the 50DMA, following through enough to break out above the 20DMA too.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) started the week with a 3-month low and laggard status relative to the other major indices. Buyers jumped into IWM from the open and never looked back. IWM gained every day of the week and closed the week at a new (marginal) high of the year. This spurt of enthusiasm for small caps helped push market breadth away from the oversold threshold and into its highest close of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) confirmed lower Bollinger Band support as it rose above its 20DMA.\" class=\"wp-image-72166\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><strong>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) confirmed lower Bollinger Band support as it rose above its 20DMA.<\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call After Oversold Enough<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 40.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 54.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, closed the week at 40.1%. As stated earlier, my favorite technical indicator rallied from a near miss with the overbought threshold (at 20%) to a new high for the year. That momentum qualifies for an assumption that market breadth got oversold enough to create bullish trading conditions. However, since I anticipate more choppy trading, I am patiently leaving the short-term trading call at neutral. The main lesson from the market&#8217;s latest bounce back is that the raging bull market remains well-intact&#8230;.even with <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/01\/12\/post-election-euphoria-fizzling-with-oversold-in-sight-the-market-breadth\/\">plenty of room ahead for disappointment<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) is again a key feature stock. AAPL ended the previous week with an ominous 50DMA breakdown. AAPL&#8217;s subsequent rebound stopped cold at 50DMA resistance with a 4.0% slide confirming resistance. Once again AAPL faces <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/apple-smartphone-shipments-china-fell-25-q4-canalys-says-2025-01-16\/\">concerns about demand in China<\/a>. Each time this kind of news trots into the foreground, investors forget about the headlines in short order. The general market&#8217;s rebound currently supports an imminent recovery. However, I duly note that a major pullback is long overdue given <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AAPL\/charting?compare=AAPL&amp;interval=10Y&amp;metric=pe_ratio\">AAPL&#8217;s lofty valuation<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1625\" height=\"562\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/20250118_AAPL-PE-ratio.png\" alt=\"The AAPL P\/E is coming off a major high but remains extremely elevated compared to the last 10 years.\" class=\"wp-image-72198\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/20250118_AAPL-PE-ratio.png 1625w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/20250118_AAPL-PE-ratio-768x266.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/20250118_AAPL-PE-ratio-1536x531.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/20250118_AAPL-PE-ratio-1320x457.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1625px) 100vw, 1625px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The AAPL P\/E is coming off a major high but remains extremely elevated compared to the last 10 years.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png\" alt=\"Apple Inc (AAPL) abruptly confirmed 50DMA resistance, falling by 4% as it dropped along the lower Bollinger Band.\" class=\"wp-image-72167\" title=\"Apple Inc (AAPL)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Apple-Inc-AAPL-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Apple-Inc-AAPL-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Apple-Inc-AAPL-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Apple Inc (AAPL) abruptly confirmed 50DMA resistance, falling by 4% as it dropped along the lower Bollinger Band.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>In the previous week, I held a put spread on Caterpillar, Inc (CAT) as a hedge on bullishness. Buyers wasted no time in laying waste to that position. CAT bounced sharply on Monday by 3.3% and set the tone for the week. CAT ended the week with a 50DMA breakout and even stretched above its upper Bollinger Band (BB). That stretch motivated me to return to a fresh hedge, a weekly $375\/365 put spread.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Caterpillar-Inc-CAT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Caterpillar-Inc-CAT.png\" alt=\"Caterpillar Inc (CAT) made a huge comeback this week, rising rapidly before it broke out above its 50DMA.\" class=\"wp-image-72168\" title=\"Caterpillar Inc (CAT)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Caterpillar-Inc-CAT.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Caterpillar-Inc-CAT-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Caterpillar-Inc-CAT-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Caterpillar-Inc-CAT-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Caterpillar Inc (CAT) made a huge comeback this week, rising rapidly before it broke out above its 50DMA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/01\/12\/post-election-euphoria-fizzling-with-oversold-in-sight-the-market-breadth\/\">My guess<\/a> that D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS) would not hold 50DMA support turned out to be correct for a whole day. The same guy who started the quantum sell-off gave quantum speculation fresh life, thus saving QBTS just in time from a confirmed bearish breakdown. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) surprisingly announced <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.nvidia.com\/blog\/gtc-2025-quantum-day\/\">quantum day for March 20th<\/a>. Not only will CEO Jensen Huang speak but also a whole host of quantum companies will get an opportunity to contribute to the quantum excitement, including QBTS! Here is the list of chosen ones:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Alice &amp; Bob<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Atom Computing<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>D-Wave<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Infleqtion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>IonQ (IONQ)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pasqal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PsiQuantum<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Quantinuum<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Quantum Circuits<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>QuEra Computing<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rigetti (RGTI)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>SEEQC<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>QBTS rebounded 23.5% on the news and closed above its 50DMA. After another 22.4% gain, QBTS stopped cold. Still, with NVDA providing a tailwind to the space, I am very tempted to get back into the game speculating on these stocks. For now, the technicals look quite toppy across the board with questionable support from the last pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"799\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/20250117_QBTS-D-Wave-Quantum-Inc.png\" alt=\"D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS) recovered sharply from a 50DMA breakdown but ended the week poised for a fresh pullback.\" class=\"wp-image-72200\" title=\"D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/20250117_QBTS-D-Wave-Quantum-Inc.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/20250117_QBTS-D-Wave-Quantum-Inc-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/20250117_QBTS-D-Wave-Quantum-Inc-1320x698.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS) recovered sharply from a 50DMA breakdown but ended the week poised for a fresh pullback.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Elastic N.V. (ESTC) failed to follow through on <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/11\/23\/support-holds-firm-ahead-of-holiday-week-the-market-breadth\/\">its post-earnings surge<\/a>. After a brief push, ESTC has dribbled lower for six weeks. Now buyers must stand their ground at the 50DMA alongside downtrending resistance with the 20DMA. A higher close from here gets me back in.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Elastic-NV-ESTC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Elastic-NV-ESTC.png\" alt=\"Elastic NV (ESTC) reversed its momentum towards closing its post-earnings gap, riding along the 50DMA.\" class=\"wp-image-72169\" title=\"Elastic NV (ESTC)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Elastic-NV-ESTC.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Elastic-NV-ESTC-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Elastic-NV-ESTC-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Elastic-NV-ESTC-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Elastic NV (ESTC) reversed its momentum towards closing its post-earnings gap, riding along the 50DMA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/12\/07\/turnaround-december-defies-sagging-market-breadth-the-market-breadth\/\">I was bullish<\/a> on Five Below Inc (FIVE) going into and coming out of earnings. Unfortunately, FIVE never followed through on its pre-earnings momentum. The stock is now suffering from a confirmed 50DMA breakdown and is back in bearish position.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Five-Below-Inc-FIVE.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Five-Below-Inc-FIVE.png\" alt=\"Five Below Inc (FIVE) confirmed a 50DMA breakdown and returned to the middle of its Fall trading range.\" class=\"wp-image-72170\" title=\"Five Below Inc (FIVE)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Five-Below-Inc-FIVE.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Five-Below-Inc-FIVE-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Five-Below-Inc-FIVE-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Five-Below-Inc-FIVE-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Five Below Inc (FIVE) confirmed a 50DMA breakdown and returned to the middle of its Fall trading range.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Shopify, Inc (SHOP) is also in bearish position despite significant momentum from its last earnings report. SHOP spent the week feebly trying to recover from a confirmed 50DMA breakdown. Now the stock is fighting converged resistance from its 50 and 20DMAs. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Shopify-Inc-SHOP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Shopify-Inc-SHOP.png\" alt=\"After confirmed a 50DMA breakdown, Shopify Inc (SHOP) is facing down converged resistance from its 20 and 50DMAs.\" class=\"wp-image-72171\" title=\"Shopify Inc (SHOP)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Shopify-Inc-SHOP.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Shopify-Inc-SHOP-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Shopify-Inc-SHOP-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Shopify-Inc-SHOP-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>After confirmed a 50DMA breakdown, Shopify Inc (SHOP) is facing down converged resistance from its 20 and 50DMAs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Financials tried to deliver an exclamation mark on the bottom created by the market reaching &#8220;oversold enough&#8221;. JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM) gained 2.0% post-earnings and kept rallying from that all-time high. I chased financials by buying February call options on SPDR Select Sector Fund &#8211; Financial (XLF) to play its 50DMA breakout. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-JPMorgan-Chase-Co-JPM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-JPMorgan-Chase-Co-JPM.png\" alt=\"Post-earnings JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM) confirmed 50DMA support and continued to surge to fresh all-time highs.\" class=\"wp-image-72172\" title=\"JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-JPMorgan-Chase-Co-JPM.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-JPMorgan-Chase-Co-JPM-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-JPMorgan-Chase-Co-JPM-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-JPMorgan-Chase-Co-JPM-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Post-earnings JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM) confirmed 50DMA support and continued to surge to fresh all-time highs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Walmart Inc (WMT) has had an impressive and beautiful uptrend for over a year. From a technical standpoint, I have little excuse for failing to lock WMT into the longer-term portfolio. Now, WMT has sagged enough since the December all-time high to slide along a short-term downtrend defined by the 20DMA. On Thursday, WMT tentatively tested 50DMA support. I am assuming after this test, WMT will resume its rise to $100. I just need to see a higher close before I participate in THAT run&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Walmart-Inc-WMT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"797\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Walmart-Inc-WMT.png\" alt=\"Walmart Inc (WMT) churned throughout the week while pivoting around its declining 20DMA and clinging to 50DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-72173\" title=\"Walmart Inc (WMT)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Walmart-Inc-WMT.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Walmart-Inc-WMT-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Walmart-Inc-WMT-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Walmart-Inc-WMT-1320x653.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Walmart Inc (WMT) churned throughout the week while pivoting around its declining 20DMA and clinging to 50DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>I assumed Cintas Corporation (CNTAS) would continue its post-earnings malaise with further selling. Instead, after a bit of cooling, CTAS has managed to rally almost all month. The provider of workplace outfits looks set to finish reversing its post-earnings loss with a test of overhead 50DMA resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Cintas-Corp-CTAS.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Cintas-Corp-CTAS.png\" alt=\"Cintas Corp (CTAS) has nearly reversed all its post-earnings loss after a 20DMA breakout.\" class=\"wp-image-72174\" title=\"Cintas Corp (CTAS)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Cintas-Corp-CTAS.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Cintas-Corp-CTAS-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Cintas-Corp-CTAS-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-Cintas-Corp-CTAS-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Cintas Corp (CTAS) has nearly reversed all its post-earnings loss after a 20DMA breakout.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) once again avoided breaking the oversold threshold. Its sharp rebound set a new high for the year.\" class=\"wp-image-72175\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT50-MMFI.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT50-MMFI-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT50-MMFI-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT50-MMFI-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) once again avoided breaking the oversold threshold. Its sharp rebound set a new high for the year.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) rebounded perfectly from a test of 2024's intraday low and set a new closing high for 2025.\" class=\"wp-image-72176\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT200-MMTH.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT200-MMTH-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT200-MMTH-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/011725-AT200-MMTH-1320x649.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) rebounded perfectly from a test of 2024&#8217;s intraday low and set a new closing high for 2025.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods<\/strong>: Day #283 over 20%, Day #4 over 30% (overperiod), Day #16 under 40%, Day #16 under 50%, Day #20 under 60%, Day #121 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong> long SPY put spread, long IWM, long CAT put, long XLF calls<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/drduru.bsky.social\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BlueSky<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/ahan.analytics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary The week opened with market breadth dropping to within five percentage points of the oversold threshold. This was the closest encounter with oversold since late October, 2023. The stock market never looked back from there. A favorable mid-week inflation report helped propel the stock market with the assistance of declining long-term bond &#8230; <a title=\"Was the Stock Market &#8220;Oversold Enough&#8221;? &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/01\/18\/was-the-stock-market-oversold-enough-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":72175,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,483,482,1862,921,220,548,219,43,1312,491,3604,512,338,1311,511,62,982,920],"tags":[250,534,1820,2832,64,63,294,2201,295,3608,2534,2257,2875,2218,909,3232,351,413,3607,65,1684,2367,362,3090,1177],"class_list":["post-72178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-business-services","category-downtrend","category-earnings","category-financials","category-high-tech","category-industrial-sector","category-manufacturing-2","category-oversold","category-quantum-computing","category-resistance","category-retail","category-software","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","category-uptrend","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-cat","tag-caterpillar-inc","tag-cintas","tag-compq","tag-ctas","tag-d-wave-quantum-inc","tag-elastic-nv","tag-estc","tag-five","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-jp-morgan-chase-co","tag-jpm","tag-nasdaq","tag-qbts","tag-sp-500","tag-shop","tag-shopify","tag-spy","tag-walmart-inc","tag-wmt"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Was the Stock Market &quot;Oversold Enough&quot;? - The Market Breadth - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The stock market dropped near the oversold threshold but bullishly reversed. 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