{"id":71765,"date":"2024-12-18T18:16:25","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T02:16:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=71765"},"modified":"2024-12-19T09:10:23","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T17:10:23","slug":"from-euphoria-to-oversold-in-a-day-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/12\/18\/from-euphoria-to-oversold-in-a-day-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"From Euphoria to Oversold In A Day? &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If you followed <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/12\/15\/market-breadth-breakdown-belies-tech-strength-the-market-breadth\/\">December&#8217;s deterioration in market breadth<\/a> and\/or paid attention to <a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2024\/12\/12\/bonds-try-to-weigh-on-a-market-trying-to-look-past-stabilizing-inflation\/\">the inflation numbers and the smoke signals from the Federal Reserve<\/a>, today&#8217;s market sell-off does not surprise you. What surprises me at the time of writing is the complete collapse in market breadth. The stock market essentially plunged from euphoria to oversold in a day. While my favorite indicator of market breadth did not hit official oversold conditions, the extreme nature of today&#8217;s move creates a &#8220;quasi&#8221; oversold condition. I recorded the video below to provide an updated description of the strengthening warnings going into the Fed decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"What to Watch for As Strong Tech Stocks Continue to Hide Underlying  #Stockmarket Weakness\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/hrW0PWARhUk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed-related disappointment was the catalyst that finally got the entire stock market&#8217;s attention. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered the clear message in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20241218a.htm\">today&#8217;s decision on monetary policy<\/a>: the Fed MIGHT cut at most twice next year because inflation has been &#8220;firmer&#8221; than expected. The core news first came in the updated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20241218b.htm\">Summary of Economic Projections<\/a>. While the Fed cut rates as expected by 25 basis points (bps) (to a range of 4-1\/4 to 4-1\/2 percent), the Fed slashed its expectations for 2025 rate cuts from 100 to 50 bps. Moreover, inflation expectations (the 2025 core PCE inflation rate) increased from 2.2% to 2.5%. The market took zero solace in a slight increase in projected real GDP growth from 2.0% to 2.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"FOMC Press Conference, December 18, 2024\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nsNgk46qHgw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>All month long, in fact ever since the Fed&#8217;s first rate cut in September, the bond market paid attention even as the stock market whistled blithely along. Last week the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) finished reversing the initial (and misplaced) euphoria about the pick to run the U.S. Treasury in the next administration. Today, TLT almost tested the bottom of the presumed trading range. A breakdown from here <strong><em>should<\/em><\/strong> keep the stock market&#8217;s attention. I took profits last week on my last round of TLT puts.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"799\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_TLT-iShares-20-Year-Treasury-Bond-ETF.png\" alt=\"The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) dropped 1.6% post-Fed and nearly tested the bottom of its presumed trading range.\" class=\"wp-image-71770\" title=\"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_TLT-iShares-20-Year-Treasury-Bond-ETF.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_TLT-iShares-20-Year-Treasury-Bond-ETF-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_TLT-iShares-20-Year-Treasury-Bond-ETF-1320x698.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) dropped 1.6% post-Fed and nearly tested the bottom of its presumed trading range.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) sliced right through support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below). Sellers finally stopped dumping stocks overboard right at the closing low from last month. That low created a picture-perfect test of 20DMA support (the dashed line). A complete reversal of post-election gains seems imminent now (the gap up that last confirmed 50DMA support).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once I recognized that the stock market was waking up to risk, I loaded up on SPY $590 put options expiring on Friday. However, the put options quickly doubled in value at which point I took profits. An old options trading rule dictates taking profits on a quick double. Besides, the S&amp;P 500 was already down about 1.9% with 45 minutes left to closing and looming 50DMA support. An oversold bounce could have kicked in anytime. Instead, sellers maintained their fury into the close and those same put options more than tripled from my selling price! Wow!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_SPY-SPDR-SP-500-ETF-Trust.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"799\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_SPY-SPDR-SP-500-ETF-Trust.png\" alt=\"The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) sliced right through 50DMA support with a massive 3.0% plunge that is testing the last low from November.\" class=\"wp-image-71772\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2.0047732696897373;width:812px;height:auto\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_SPY-SPDR-SP-500-ETF-Trust.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_SPY-SPDR-SP-500-ETF-Trust-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_SPY-SPDR-SP-500-ETF-Trust-1320x698.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) sliced right through 50DMA support with a massive 3.0% plunge that is testing the last low from November.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQX) has been the paragon of strength this month and through the (presumed) Santa Claus rally. Before today, the tech-laden index was up a nifty 4.6% versus the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s flat performance. That divergence was even more dramatic given the S&amp;P 500 equal weighted index was DOWN 4.1% before today (and plunged another 3.0% today!). While the S&amp;P 500 now looks ready to reverse all its post-election gains, the NASDAQ may be just getting started. First, a test of 50DMA support&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"799\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) sliced through its 20DMA with a 3.6% loss. An overdue test of 50DMA support looms....\" class=\"wp-image-71773\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_COMPQ-NASDAQ-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_COMPQ-NASDAQ-1320x698.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) sliced through its 20DMA with a 3.6% loss. An overdue test of 50DMA support looms&#8230;.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is MY big disappointment. My hopes for a turn-around at some point were completely smashed by today&#8217;s 4.4% collapse. IWM gave up all its post-election gains and then some. It looks poised to next test the lows that were part of its last successful test of 50DMA support. IWM is even once again below the summer&#8217;s blow-off tops. My last batch of IWM call options were of course evaporated. I will stubbornly look to open a fresh round as early as Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"799\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) plunged 4.4% with a complete reversal of post-election gains.\" class=\"wp-image-71777\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-1320x698.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) plunged 4.4% with a complete reversal of post-election gains.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call From Euphoria to Oversold<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 30.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 51.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, plunged from 48.8% to 30.8%. This one-day collapse is the most dramatic suffered by my favorite technical indicator since the pandemic. From that vantage point alone, AT50 is essentially in an oversold extreme even though the <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50 trading rules<\/a> define oversold conditions below 20%. The volatility index (VIX) added to the extreme nature of the move by soaring 73.9% to its 4th highest close of the year and the highest percentage closing gain of the year. If AT50 were officially oversold, I would be aggressively bullish with plans to start buying &#8220;something&#8221; first thing Thursday morning. Instead, I am tentatively upgrading the stock market from neutral to cautiously bullish. This short-term trading call acknowledges the outsized extremes of today&#8217;s trading action while providing me &#8220;psychological license&#8221; to stay on the trading sidelines until more of the dust settles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Note well that this year continues to be a strange year for AT50. This tried and true indicator of market breadth has yet to drop into oversold territory even on an intraday basis. On the bearish side, AT50 fell from overbought resistance (70%) SIX times with each episode resulting in tepid trading for shorts. This sixth episode was the strangest of all because of the extreme and extended nature of the divergence in the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ. I never felt comfortable downgrading from neutral to bearish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the stock market gaps down at the open along with a fresh surge in the VIX, I will get into &#8220;buy something&#8221; mode.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_VIX-Volatility-SP-500-Index.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_VIX-Volatility-SP-500-Index.png\" alt=\"Volatility S&amp;P 500 Index (VIX) shot straight up to a whopping 73.9% gain. The biggest closing gain of the year.\" class=\"wp-image-71785\" title=\"Volatility S&amp;P 500 Index (VIX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_VIX-Volatility-SP-500-Index.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_VIX-Volatility-SP-500-Index-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_VIX-Volatility-SP-500-Index-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Volatility S&amp;P 500 Index (VIX) shot straight up to a whopping 73.9% gain. The biggest closing gain of the year.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>My first order of business will be to clear my decks of almost all remaining bearish positions. My biggest one is my go-to hedge against bullishness: Caterpillar, Inc (CAT). Given the market&#8217;s deteriorating technicals, I got bold enough to add to my puts going into the Fed meeting. Moreover, CAT&#8217;s two rebounds after initially dropping 2.1% post-earnings did not make sense beyond pure technical trading games. I even stopped myself from taking profits today (the options rule for taking profits after a quick double do not apply here). Given the outsized profits on this position and the stretched close below the lower Bollinger Band (BB), CAT will be my first position to close after Thursday&#8217;s open.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_CAT-Caterpillar-Inc.png\" alt=\"Like so many stocks, Caterpillar Inc (CAT) has been falling most of December. Today's 3.2% drop sliced CAT past its post-earnings intraday low.\" class=\"wp-image-71788\" title=\"Caterpillar Inc (CAT)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_CAT-Caterpillar-Inc.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_CAT-Caterpillar-Inc-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_CAT-Caterpillar-Inc-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Like so many stocks, Caterpillar Inc (CAT) has been falling most of December. Today&#8217;s 3.2% drop sliced CAT past its post-earnings intraday low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/12\/01\/lazy-holiday-week-sets-up-december-buys-the-market-breadth\/\">At the beginning of the month<\/a>, I marveled at how monday.com (MNDY) quickly rebounded after I bought a put spread to play a bearish post-earnings 50DMA breakdown. Fast forward to this week where sellers suddenly accelerated their interest in the stock. A 7.9% plunge the day before managed to put my spread back to flat. After the open, a sudden 3% or so follow-through in selling compelled me to go ahead and take profits. I saw no news to explain the selling, so I figured MNDY was just as likely to bounce as it was to keep selling through the Fed. MNDY ended the day with another 7.9% loss (on the nose!).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_MNDY-monday.com-Ltd.png\" alt=\"After two straight days of heavy selling, monday.com Ltd (MNDY) has nearly closed a post-earnings gap up from August.\" class=\"wp-image-71790\" title=\"After two straight days of heavy selling, monday.com Ltd (MNDY) has nearly closed a post-earnings gap up from August.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_MNDY-monday.com-Ltd.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_MNDY-monday.com-Ltd-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_MNDY-monday.com-Ltd-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>After two straight days of heavy selling, monday.com Ltd (MNDY) has nearly closed a post-earnings gap up from August.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;ll end on a hopeful note. Crowdstrike (CRWD) is one of the 30% of stocks still trading above its 50DMA. I am surprised that the stock recovered so quickly from <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/07\/20\/historic-tech-outage-punctuates-end-of-overbought-conditions-the-market-breadth\/\">the summer&#8217;s disastrous outage<\/a>. Even though <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/07\/22\/bears-signal-readiness-to-bow-out-the-market-breadth\/\">I fingered Congressional testimony as a (classic) buying spot<\/a>, I left the stock alone (hopefully at least one of you out there kept up with CRWD&#8217;s news flow and technicals!). Now CRWD is pulling back from a test of all-time highs and looks ready to test uptrending 50DMA support. During oversold trading, I sometimes like to start buying the survivors.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_CRWD-CrowdStrike-Holdings-Inc.png\" alt=\"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc (CRWD) fell 7.2% and confirmed a failed test of resistance at its all-time high. A 50DMA test of support now looms.\" class=\"wp-image-71792\" title=\"Alphabet Inc (GOOG)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_CRWD-CrowdStrike-Holdings-Inc.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_CRWD-CrowdStrike-Holdings-Inc-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_CRWD-CrowdStrike-Holdings-Inc-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc (CRWD) fell 7.2% and confirmed a failed test of resistance at its all-time high. A 50DMA test of support now looms.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT50-MMFI-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-50-Day-Moving-Average.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"799\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT50-MMFI-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-50-Day-Moving-Average.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) plunged to its 5th lowest close of the year on a test of the intraday low from August. Will AT50 finally achieve official oversold conditions this year?\" class=\"wp-image-71780\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT50-MMFI-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-50-Day-Moving-Average.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT50-MMFI-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-50-Day-Moving-Average-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT50-MMFI-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-50-Day-Moving-Average-1320x698.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) plunged to its 5th lowest close of the year on a test of the intraday low from August. Will AT50 finally achieve official oversold conditions this year?<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT200-MMTH-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-200-Day-Moving-Average.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT200-MMTH-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-200-Day-Moving-Average.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) stopped well short of testing the year's lows but looks ready to do so.\" class=\"wp-image-71783\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT200-MMTH-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-200-Day-Moving-Average.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT200-MMTH-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-200-Day-Moving-Average-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT200-MMTH-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-200-Day-Moving-Average-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) stopped well short of testing the year&#8217;s lows but looks ready to do so.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods<\/strong>: Day #268 over 20%, Day #167 over 30% (overperiod), Day #1 under 40% (ending 90 days over 40%), Day #1 under 50% (ending 28 days over 50%), Day #5 under 60%, Day #106 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong> long SPY put spread, long IWM shares and call options, long QQQ put spread, long CAT puts, long VXX put options<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/drduru.bsky.social\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BlueSky<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/ahan.analytics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary If you followed December&#8217;s deterioration in market breadth and\/or paid attention to the inflation numbers and the smoke signals from the Federal Reserve, today&#8217;s market sell-off does not surprise you. What surprises me at the time of writing is the complete collapse in market breadth. The stock market essentially plunged from euphoria &#8230; <a title=\"From Euphoria to Oversold In A Day? &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/12\/18\/from-euphoria-to-oversold-in-a-day-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":71780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,456,483,58,219,43,1312,491,512,1311,62,982],"tags":[1820,2832,64,63,2201,3531,3529,3597,1242,2218,909,115,413,65,362,280,2303,303,931,120],"class_list":["post-71765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-bonds-2","category-breakdown","category-federal-reserve","category-high-tech","category-industrial-sector","category-manufacturing-2","category-oversold","category-resistance","category-software","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-cat","tag-caterpillar-inc","tag-compq","tag-crowdstrike-holdings-inc","tag-crwd","tag-ipath-series-b-sp-500-vix-short-term-futures-etn","tag-ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-monetary-policy","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-tlt","tag-trading-call-change","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index","tag-vxx"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>From Euphoria to Oversold In A Day? - The Market Breadth - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"An overdue confirmation of a bearish divergence created an extreme plunge from euphoria to oversold in a day. 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Now what?","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/12\/18\/from-euphoria-to-oversold-in-a-day-the-market-breadth\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/12\/18\/from-euphoria-to-oversold-in-a-day-the-market-breadth\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/12\/18\/from-euphoria-to-oversold-in-a-day-the-market-breadth\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT50-MMFI-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-50-Day-Moving-Average.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/20241218_AT50-MMFI-Percent-of-Stocks-Above-50-Day-Moving-Average.png","width":1510,"height":799,"caption":"AT50 (MMFI) plunged to its 5th lowest close of the year on a test of the intraday low from August. Will AT50 finally achieve official oversold conditions this year?"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/12\/18\/from-euphoria-to-oversold-in-a-day-the-market-breadth\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"From Euphoria to Oversold In A Day? &#8211; The Market Breadth"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#website","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/","name":"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","description":"Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0","name":"Dr. Duru","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","width":900,"height":100,"caption":"Dr. Duru"},"logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/onetwentytwo","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/","https:\/\/x.com\/drduru"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71765"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71765\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":71798,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71765\/revisions\/71798"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}