{"id":70900,"date":"2024-10-12T23:25:08","date_gmt":"2024-10-13T06:25:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=70900"},"modified":"2024-10-12T23:53:18","modified_gmt":"2024-10-13T06:53:18","slug":"all-time-highs-defy-octobers-warnings-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/10\/12\/all-time-highs-defy-octobers-warnings-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"All-Time Highs Defy October&#8217;s Warnings &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>October is the third of <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/09\/11\/how-to-trade-during-the-stock-markets-most-dangerous-months\/\">the stock market&#8217;s three most dangerous months<\/a>. October, 2024 started with a convergence of bad news tailor-made to fulfill October&#8217;s seasonal destiny: intensifying war and geo-political tensions, two intense hurricanes, the looming contentiousness of the U.S. presidential election, another failure from the overbought threshold (<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/blog\/\">bearish according to the AT50 trading rules<\/a>), even a strong September job&#8217;s report and what looks like <a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2024\/10\/10\/who-is-paying-attention-to-stabilizing-core-inflation\/\">stabilizing inflation<\/a> that both promise to delay the rate cut goodies for the stock market. The market is not even fazed by a strengthening U.S. dollar and a resurgent volatility index (VIX). None of these signs mattered. After a maximum drawdown of 1.2%, the S&amp;P 500 decided to defy all these October warnings and print all-time highs going into earnings season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) closed at two all-time highs last week. Overall, the index has carried a bullish uptrend with just brief interruptions from breakdowns below the 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below). This trading action is a quintessential example of defying gravity.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) remained above the 20DMA, confiming support and setting a new all-time high.\" class=\"wp-image-70886\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2.0047732696897373;width:812px;height:auto\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-SP-500-SPY.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-SP-500-SPY-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-SP-500-SPY-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-SP-500-SPY-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) remained above the 20DMA, confiming support and setting a new all-time high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ is trying once again to fill the gap from July that marked the confirmation of a bearish engulfing top. With a close above the September high, the tech laden index is well-positioned to finally invalidate that bearish signal&#8230;and join the S&amp;P 500 in an effort to deft October&#8217;s warnings.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ) recovered by returning to its September high, after a gradual drop towards the 20DMA.\" class=\"wp-image-70887\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1320x649.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>NASDAQ (COMPQ) recovered by returning to its September high, after a gradual drop towards the 20DMA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) woke up with a 2.0% gain. That move confirmed 50DMA support, a trendline that traders tested twice this month.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"797\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) confirmed 50DMA support twice in a row, rising towards the September high.\" class=\"wp-image-70888\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1536x761.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1320x654.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) confirmed 50DMA support twice in a row, rising towards the September high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call to Deft October&#8217;s Warnings<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 63.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 59.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, drifted downward all week and then popped on Friday from 54.4% to 63.8%. Once again, my favorite technical indicator looks poised to push into overbought territory. The mildly bearish signal that was generated from late September&#8217;s failure to tap the overbought threshold was only good for a mild October pullback. The maximum drawdown for the month sits at 1.2%. It is below <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/09\/11\/how-to-trade-during-the-stock-markets-most-dangerous-months\/\">the median and the average maximum drawdown for the month<\/a>. However, as I noted in <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/10\/06\/strong-jobs-report-shakes-lethargic-trading-the-market-breadth\/\">the last Market Breadth<\/a>, given the market has made it this far despite numerous warnings, I cannot foresee a near-term catalyst that will produce a more seasonal October pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If my acquiescence to complacency proves wrong well then my periodic admonition to &#8220;get ready so you don&#8217;t need to be ready&#8221; will loom large again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like the S&amp;P 500, financials don&#8217;t care about October&#8217;s warnings. The SPDR Select Sector Fund &#8211; Financial (XLF) closed the week at an all-time high. XLF gained 1.9% on Friday on an impressive breakout. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/09\/15\/return-to-giddy-anticipation-of-rate-cuts-market-breadth\/\">The bad news a month ago that kept me from going long XLF<\/a>, as a play on holding 50DMA support, looks and feels like a quaint and distant memory!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Financial-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-XLF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Financial-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-XLF.png\" alt=\"Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) pushed away from its 20DMA and set a new all-time high.\" class=\"wp-image-70896\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Financial-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-XLF.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Financial-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-XLF-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Financial-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-XLF-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Financial-Select-Sector-SPDR-Fund-XLF-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) pushed away from its 20DMA and set a new all-time high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>My Tesla Inc (TSLA) trade failed. I was counting on hype from Tesla&#8217;s (TSLA) announcement about its forthcoming robotaxi to get the TSLA fans scooping up shares before and after the event. If I had not locked into a bullish assumption about the event, I might have noticed the complete absence of excitement and hype going into the announcement. On October 2, TSLA dropped on disappointing September delivery numbers and never recovered. The stock drifted downward into Thursday night&#8217;s event and gapped down Friday morning. The 8.8% loss broke 50DMA support and closed TSLA just above its 2023 breakout point (not shown below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After a quick (re)assessment I decided to carry over the trade at least one week. I took profits on Tradr 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSLQ), rolled over the weekly long put, and took delivery of shares on the short put. On Monday, I plan to sell a call option against the shares. If I do not log a profit in the coming days, I will evaluate one more time whether to roll the position to a further date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Tesla&#39;s stock loses more than 8% after an unfavorable public reaction to CEO Elon Musk&#39;s &quot;We, Robot&quot; event unveiling the long-awaited Cybertaxi and Robovan.  <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/munster_gene?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@munster_gene<\/a> of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/deepwatermgmt?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@deepwatermgmt<\/a> attended the invitation-only event and gives his take on what he saw. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7ODsX1cIdb\">pic.twitter.com\/7ODsX1cIdb<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC&#39;s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBCFastMoney\/status\/1844858333284454652?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 11, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Tesla-Inc-TSLA.png\" alt=\"A robotaxi dud: Tesla Inc (TSLA) broke down below its 50DMA with an 8% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-70889\" title=\"Tesla Inc (TSLA)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Tesla-Inc-TSLA.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Tesla-Inc-TSLA-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Tesla-Inc-TSLA-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Tesla-Inc-TSLA-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>A robotaxi dud: Tesla Inc (TSLA) broke down below its 50DMA with an 8% loss.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) benefited from Tesla&#8217;s robotaxi dud. UBER gained 10.8% and closed at an all-time high. It never even occurred to me to use UBER as part of a hedged trade on Tesla&#8217;s robotaxi event. It also never occurred to me that UBER&#8217;s strength going into that announcement was one more warning sign. UBER&#8217;s breakout is as bullish as it gets and makes the stock a buy on the dips until\/unless traders fully reverse Friday&#8217;s gain.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Uber-Technologies-Inc-UBER.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Uber-Technologies-Inc-UBER.png\" alt=\"Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) soared 10.8% to an all-time high as relieved investors celebrated Tesla's robotaxi dud.\" class=\"wp-image-70890\" title=\"Uber Technologies Inc (UBER)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Uber-Technologies-Inc-UBER.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Uber-Technologies-Inc-UBER-768x377.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Uber-Technologies-Inc-UBER-1536x755.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Uber-Technologies-Inc-UBER-1320x649.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) soared 10.8% to an all-time high as relieved investors celebrated Tesla&#8217;s robotaxi dud.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>My 180-degree flip on Redfin Corporation (RDFN) worked out as the stock made a beeline to 50DMA support as I expected. I took profits on the 50DMA test. I flipped 180 degrees yet again after RDFN closed above 50DMA resistance. This trade stays on my radar because I suspect the moment I give up is when RDFN will suddenly soar as it did so many times on its rebound from the summer lows&#8230;or it will collapse (consistent with my nagging feeling that RDFN does not have a long-term sustainable business). Long-term rates have been rising, so it makes sense that RDFN faded almost the entire move from the last rally. I will flip yet again on a fresh low.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Redfin-Corp-RDFN.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Redfin-Corp-RDFN.png\" alt=\"Redfin Corp (RDFN) declined into a 50DMA breakdown after hitting a new high for the year. A 6.6% gain created a new 50DMA breakout.\" class=\"wp-image-70891\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Redfin Corp (RDFN)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Redfin-Corp-RDFN.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Redfin-Corp-RDFN-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Redfin-Corp-RDFN-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Redfin-Corp-RDFN-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Redfin Corp (RDFN) declined into a 50DMA breakdown after hitting a new high for the year. A 6.6% gain created a new 50DMA breakout.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>My hedged trade on Roblox Inc (RBLX) worked out in to the downside despite <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/10\/06\/strong-jobs-report-shakes-lethargic-trading-the-market-breadth\/\">my suspicion that the stock was ready to fake out bears on a 50DMA breakdown<\/a>. A short-seller issued a scathing report on RBLX that sent the stock down 9.0% at the open. With the stock trading an extreme (well below the lower Bollinger Band (BB)), I quickly took profits on the strangle position. With buyers already fighting back with a full reversal of the losses induced by the short-seller, I am likely to put on a fresh strangle position&#8230;suspecting that buyers are fueling up to continue fighting back.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/20241012_RBLX-Roblox-Corporation.png\" alt=\"Roblox Corporation (RBLX) rebounded quickly from a short-seller inspired breakdown. However, RBLX remains below 50DMA resistance.\" class=\"wp-image-70927\" title=\"Roblox Corporation (RBLX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/20241012_RBLX-Roblox-Corporation.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/20241012_RBLX-Roblox-Corporation-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/20241012_RBLX-Roblox-Corporation-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Roblox Corporation (RBLX) rebounded quickly from a short-seller inspired breakdown. However, RBLX remains below 50DMA resistance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Ulta Beauty, Inc (ULTA) looked like one of many consumer discretionary stocks making impressive rebounds. A 50DMA breakout fizzled out right at ULTA&#8217;s summer highs. I bought into a successful test of 50DMA support with shares and then a call spread. The shares stopped out when ULTA broke below its 50DMA. I will have to bail on the call spread if ULTA reverses from Friday&#8217;s attempt to recover 50DMA support.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Ulta-Beauty-Inc-ULTA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Ulta-Beauty-Inc-ULTA.png\" alt=\"Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) broke down below its 50DMA, but just barely squeezed above it at the close of the week.\" class=\"wp-image-70892\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Ulta-Beauty-Inc-ULTA.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Ulta-Beauty-Inc-ULTA-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Ulta-Beauty-Inc-ULTA-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Ulta-Beauty-Inc-ULTA-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) broke down below its 50DMA, but just barely squeezed above it at the close of the week.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>MongoDB, Inc (MDB) carved out an impressive rebound from 50DMA support. I bought shares on Thursday&#8217;s confirmation of support. Now MDB faces a big test at its post-earnings high. I am interpreting MDB&#8217;s 18.3% post-earnings gain as the beginning of a full recovery from May&#8217;s post-earnings gap down.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Mongodb-Inc-MDB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Mongodb-Inc-MDB.png\" alt=\"Mongodb Inc (MDB) bounced away from 50DMA support, almost reaching the September high.\" class=\"wp-image-70893\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Mongodb Inc (MDB)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Mongodb-Inc-MDB.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Mongodb-Inc-MDB-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Mongodb-Inc-MDB-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Mongodb-Inc-MDB-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Mongodb Inc (MDB) bounced away from 50DMA support, almost reaching the September high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Snowflake Inc (SNOW) is trying to turn around again. I added to shares on the confirmed 50DMA breakout. I am sticking by this expensive database software stock based on insider purchases by executives. This turn is only confirmed by a higher high above the close before the August post-earnings gap down.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Snowflake-Inc-SNOW.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Snowflake-Inc-SNOW.png\" alt=\"Snowflake Inc (SNOW) hugged the 20DMA until eventually breaking out above the 50DMA.\" class=\"wp-image-70894\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Snowflake Inc (SNOW)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Snowflake-Inc-SNOW.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Snowflake-Inc-SNOW-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Snowflake-Inc-SNOW-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Snowflake-Inc-SNOW-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Snowflake Inc (SNOW) hugged the 20DMA until eventually breaking out above the 50DMA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Zoom Video Communications, Inc (ZM) has been my favorite &#8220;hope&#8221; trade. I bought shares as ZM drifted into 20DMA support (the dashed line). ZM has not looked this good the entire time it has struggled in a now two year trading range. I am sticking by this one on the assumption that at some point, the stock will look &#8220;cheap&#8221; enough for bargain hunters to swoop in with force.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM.png\" alt=\"Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM) churned around the 20DMA, staying above the 50DMA and approaching the August high.\" class=\"wp-image-70895\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM) churned around the 20DMA, staying above the 50DMA and approaching the August high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) churned downward throughout the week, but Friday's pop closed the week with a gain.\" class=\"wp-image-70897\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT50-MMFI.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT50-MMFI-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT50-MMFI-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT50-MMFI-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) churned downward throughout the week, but Friday&#8217;s pop closed the week with a gain.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) gradually declined throughout the week, but reversed its entire loss on the last day of the week.\" class=\"wp-image-70898\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT200-MMTH.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT200-MMTH-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT200-MMTH-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/101124-AT200-MMTH-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) gradually declined throughout the week, but reversed its entire loss on the last day of the week.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods<\/strong>: Day #223 over 20%, Day #122 over 30%, Day #46 over 40%, Day #21 over 50%, Day #1 over 60% (1st day of overperiod ending 8 days under 60%), Day #61 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong> long SPY put spread, long IWM shares and call options, long QQQ put spread, long RDFN, long ULTA call spread, long TSLA shares and put option, long MDB<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary October is the third of the stock market&#8217;s three most dangerous months. October, 2024 started with a convergence of bad news tailor-made to fulfill October&#8217;s seasonal destiny: intensifying war and geo-political tensions, two intense hurricanes, the looming contentiousness of the U.S. presidential election, another failure from the overbought threshold (bearish according to &#8230; <a title=\"All-Time Highs Defy October&#8217;s Warnings &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/10\/12\/all-time-highs-defy-octobers-warnings-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":70913,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[368,584,1303,483,482,3148,2637,1576,219,35,512,338,1311,511,62,982,518],"tags":[1152,1820,2832,2201,116,1598,2218,909,2067,2369,413,2955,2057,3274,3035,65,2765,2764,2993,362,3153,887,2186,2407,1781,1947,311,2207,2336],"class_list":["post-70900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-automotive","category-bollinger-band","category-bottom","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-communications","category-electric-vehicles","category-entertainment","category-high-tech","category-housing","category-resistance","category-retail","category-software","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","category-transportation","tag-all-time-high","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compq","tag-cpi","tag-inflation","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-mdb","tag-mongodb","tag-nasdaq","tag-rblx","tag-rdfn","tag-redfin-corporation","tag-roblox-corporation","tag-sp-500","tag-snow","tag-snowflake-inc","tag-spdr-select-sector-fund-financial","tag-spy","tag-tesla-inc","tag-tsla","tag-uber","tag-uber-technologies","tag-ulta","tag-ulta-beauty","tag-xlf","tag-zm","tag-zoom-video-communications"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>All-Time Highs Defy October&#039;s Warnings - The Market Breadth - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"October began with a convergence of bad news tailor-made to fulfill October&#039;s seasonal destiny. 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