{"id":7021,"date":"2011-09-02T04:18:56","date_gmt":"2011-09-02T08:18:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=7021"},"modified":"2011-09-02T04:18:56","modified_gmt":"2011-09-02T08:18:56","slug":"bullish-outlook-joy-global-commodity-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/09\/02\/bullish-outlook-joy-global-commodity-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Despite Bullish Outlook from Joy Global, the &#8220;Commodity Crash&#8221; Playbook Stays Active"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/291133-despite-bullish-outlook-from-joy-global-the-commodity-crash-playbook-stays-active\" title=\"FULL TEXT OF ARTICLE\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>While <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/08\/05\/t2108-update-110804\/\" title=\"S&#038;P 500 closes in oversold conditions\" target=\"_blank\">the stock market was oversold<\/a>, I focused on accumulating beaten-down, commodity-related stocks as part of <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/tag\/commodities-crash-playbook\/\" title=\"Articles related to trades made on commodity-related stocks\" target=\"_blank\">my &#8220;commodities crash&#8221; playbook<\/a> as explained in &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/278697-profiting-from-physical-assets-in-a-resource-constrained-world-rules-and-picks\" title=\"Profit from commodities\" target=\"_blank\">Profiting from Physical Assets in a Resource-Constrained World &#8211; Rules and Picks<\/a>.&#8221; The swoon in August produced many commodity stocks that erased their post-QE2 gains; I used such milestones to trigger purchases. On rallies, I have chosen to lock in a few profits given the recent sell-off in commodity stocks did not represent the kind of wholesale crash that I was expecting&#8230;. {snip}&#8230; <a href=\"http:\/\/investors.joyglobal.com\/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=602343\" title=\"Joy Global 3Q2011 earnings report\" target=\"_blank\">The most recent earnings report from Joy Global<\/a> (JOYG) on August 31 confirms that what just happened to commodity stocks did not coincide with a significant slowdown in China nor did it represent a crash. JOYG is even bullish for 2012.<\/p>\n<p>Here are two key sections from the earnings report&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Taken together, JOYG remains bullish overall for 2012&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>These descriptions are good reasons for continuing to hold some amount of commodity stocks, but they also reveal the material vulnerability to the bullish case. <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, if China manages to navigate these risks over the coming months, I will increasingly have to assume the window for the commodity crash has indeed passed. <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Post-earnings trading in JOYG reveals the ambivalence in the market. The stock rocketed as much as 7% right into stiff resistance at the 50-day moving average (DMA) and 200DMA, but closed with a mere 1% gain. JOYG closed the entire post-earnings gap up at its lowest point in the day.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_7037\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7037\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110831_JOYG.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110831_JOYG.jpg\" alt=\"JOYG&#039;s sharp recovery from 2011 lows may be over for a while\" title=\"JOYG&#039;s sharp recovery from 2011 lows may be over for a while\" width=\"525\" height=\"464\" class=\"size-full wp-image-7037\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110831_JOYG.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110831_JOYG-300x265.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-7037\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">JOYG&#039;s sharp recovery from 2011 lows may be over for a while<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n*<strong>Chart created using <a href=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\">TeleChart<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/291133-despite-bullish-outlook-from-joy-global-the-commodity-crash-playbook-stays-active\" title=\"FULL TEXT OF ARTICLE\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) While the stock market was oversold, I focused on accumulating beaten-down, commodity-related stocks as part of my &#8220;commodities crash&#8221; playbook as explained in &#8220;Profiting from Physical Assets in a Resource-Constrained World &#8211; Rules and Picks.&#8221; &#8230; <a title=\"Despite Bullish Outlook from Joy Global, the &#8220;Commodity Crash&#8221; Playbook Stays Active\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/09\/02\/bullish-outlook-joy-global-commodity-crash\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[181,4,199,220,59],"tags":[685,183,726,727,661],"class_list":["post-7021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brazil","category-china","category-commodities","category-earnings","category-economy","tag-commodities-crash-playbook","tag-ewz","tag-joy-global","tag-joyg","tag-vale"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Despite Bullish Outlook from Joy Global, the &quot;Commodity Crash&quot; Playbook Stays Active - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/09\/02\/bullish-outlook-joy-global-commodity-crash\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Despite Bullish Outlook from Joy Global, the &quot;Commodity Crash&quot; Playbook Stays Active - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) While the stock market was oversold, I focused on accumulating beaten-down, commodity-related stocks as part of my &#8220;commodities crash&#8221; playbook as explained in &#8220;Profiting from Physical Assets in a Resource-Constrained World &#8211; Rules and Picks.&#8221; ... 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