{"id":6982,"date":"2011-08-29T20:09:16","date_gmt":"2011-08-30T00:09:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=6982"},"modified":"2011-08-30T08:42:51","modified_gmt":"2011-08-30T12:42:51","slug":"t2108-update-110829","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/08\/29\/t2108-update-110829\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update – August 29, 2011 (Finally Oversold No More)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 27% (The FIRST day out of an historic oversold period that lasted 17 days – 3rd longest since 1987).
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 32
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong><\/p>\n

What a pleasant surprise. On Friday, I was thinking that the market would remain stymied by the 20DMA and the 20% oversold threshold<\/a>. Neither held, as T2108 finally bolted out of oversold territory after spending a historic 17 days mired in oversold conditions. Moreover, the S&P 500 broke above key resistance levels; I was expecting a rally like today’s 3% pop on the S&P 500 to wait until the first of September. The index is now trying to leave behind a tangled and twisted mess of angst and churn, but it will quickly need to deal with overhead resistance from the now declining 50DMA and flattening 200DMA.<\/p>\n


\n
\"S&P<\/a>
S&P 500 overcomes major resistance to break out of oversold territory<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center>
\n<\/p>\n

One of the tests for success in playing oversold conditions is to compare the maximum downdraft (risk) with the return on the first day post-oversold (initial reward). On August 4<\/a>, the S&P 500 fell 5% to close at 1200 and first entered oversold territory. The index hit rock bottom 5 days later on an intra-day basis at 1101 for an 8.3% maximum drawdown. The conservative trader waited until close to the low of the next day as the VIX (the volatility index) quickly surged 20% above the previous day’s high. The low on August 5 was 1168, and assuming the conservative trader was quick and nimble that day (not likely), s\/he suffered a maximum drawdown of 5.7%. With the S&P 500 closing at 1210, the aggressive trader so far has little to show for all that risk UNLESS s\/he followed my advice to add to positions. The conservative trader has a more attractive, but still tiny, return of 2.8%. This poor risk\/reward on the first day out of oversold territory is not a surprise given the extreme and historic nature of this sell-off. I am expecting some extremes on the positive side to follow eventually.<\/p>\n

The best outcome so far is that no one following T2108 panicked and dumped entire portfolios during the oversold period, thus saving a lot of grief and unnecessary loss. (Note well that the rules to sell trading<\/strong> positions on a break of the 1101 low included a rule to buy back into the market well before the oversold period ended and to maintain short positions).<\/p>\n

So, surviving the oversold period was the “easy” part. As I have mentioned before (prematurely as it turned out!), constructing an exit strategy after the oversold period ends represents a bigger mental challenge. I have no set rules. Given the virulence of this sell-off, I think caution remains warranted. Locking in some profits makes a lot of sense, especially to provide stamina if the market suddenly dips back into oversold territory (I am expecting a retest of overhead resistance first). I sold some of my long SSO position and intend to evaluate further sales on a day-by-day basis. I still have not closed out the few shorts and puts that I have. My ultimate target is to wait on overbought conditions to return and\/or a retest of the overhead resistance shown above. I think the S&P 500 hits overhead resistance well before T2108 gets overbought, even with most 40DMAs in decline now. (For details on related trades see my twitter feed<\/a> and\/or search for the #120trade hashtag<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

I have switched the trading call to “hold” primarily to reflect the end of a period where buying on the dips appeared to hold large rewards relative to risk. Traders should use very careful discretion in new bullish trades given today’s technical discussion.<\/p>\n

Finally, the VIX<\/a> appears just about ready to validate a sustained rally. It dropped 9% and is testing the levels from the last local peak in the S&P 500. A close below 30.8 or so, should grease the skids for the VIX. With these expectations, I am maintaining my put positions on VXX<\/a> here. (Click preceding links for current charts.)<\/p>\n


\nCharts below are the latest<\/strong> snapshots of T2108 (and the S&P 500)<\/em>
\nRefresh browser if the charts are the same as the last T2108 update.
\n<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Red line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long shares and calls on SSO, long VXX puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.) T2108 Status: 27% (The FIRST day out of an historic oversold period that lasted 17 days – 3rd longest … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-6982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update - August 29, 2011 (Finally Oversold No More) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/08\/29\/t2108-update-110829\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update - August 29, 2011 (Finally Oversold No More) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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