{"id":69478,"date":"2024-07-02T21:15:43","date_gmt":"2024-07-03T04:15:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=69478"},"modified":"2024-07-02T21:15:44","modified_gmt":"2024-07-03T04:15:44","slug":"what-happened-to-homebuilders-a-citigroup-downgrade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/07\/02\/what-happened-to-homebuilders-a-citigroup-downgrade\/","title":{"rendered":"What Happened to the Homebuilders: A Citigroup Downgrade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Question. When an analyst lowers the price target on a stock to a level still substantially higher than the current price, what do you expect to happen? What if that price target comes with a downgrade from buy to neutral? If you answered lower, you win a prize&#8230; a discounted price on homebuilder stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>A<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/citi-downgrades-d-r-horton-142957318.html\"> Citigroup downgrade<\/a> of Lennar (LEN) and DR Horton (DHI) to neutral accompanied price target cuts on the stocks from $174 to $164 and from $181 to $156 respectively. Those new price targets, presumably 12-month targets, imply 21.1% and 15.4% upside respectively from today&#8217;s close. Those returns look pretty good to me. Yet, the slides are understandable given Citigroup listed a litany of reasons for caution. From CNBC&#8217;s Fast Money short coverage of the downgrade (podcast):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Softness in permits, starts, sales, and pricing continuing into the second half of the year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Outsized exposure to Florida and Texas housing markets which are &#8220;rolling over&#8221;.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I covered all of these topics in past reviews of the housing market and most recently in &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/06\/29\/what-happened-in-the-housing-market-spring-selling-season-bust\/\">What Happened in the Housing Market \u2013 A Spring Selling Season Bust<\/a>&#8220;. Thus, Citigroup&#8217;s assessment does not surprise me. What interests me more is the technical damage done to LEN, DHI and the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) in general. LEN closed near a 7-month low and finished reversing its gains from December earnings. DHI closed at a 7-month low and looks even more toppy than LEN. ITB fell right to the bottom of its former trading range and feebly bounced from there. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"837\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/20240702_ITB-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF.png\" alt=\"The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) tested the bottom of its former trading range and looks positioned to drop into a bear market.\" class=\"wp-image-69480\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/20240702_ITB-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/20240702_ITB-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF-768x426.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/20240702_ITB-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF-1320x732.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) tested the bottom of its former trading range and looks positioned to drop into a bear market.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>I added a line to identify a bear market &#8211; conventionally triggered when an index or stock drops at least 20% from its all-time high &#8211; given a bearish assessment from Carter Braxton Worth on CNBC&#8217;s Fast Money. He made the technical case for continued selling pressure at least down to the bottom of a multi-year uptrend channel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Chart Master <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CarterBWorth?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@CarterBWorth<\/a> is doubling down on his homebuilders call! Why the charts may suggest it&#39;s time to sell: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/6L28FDVTop\">pic.twitter.com\/6L28FDVTop<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC&#39;s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBCFastMoney\/status\/1808258973784510778?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 2, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If the calendar was in the middle of <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/01\/03\/how-home-builder-stocks-trade-in-a-seasonal-pattern\/\">the seasonally strong period for home builder stocks<\/a>, I would start buying ITB here (adding to a very small core position). Instead, I am looking at the calendar and wondering whether a bear market might perfectly coincide with or near the start of the buying season homebuilder stocks. A big wildcard is the on-going drama waiting for the Fed to finally cut interest rates. That event could spark an &#8220;early&#8221; rally what would be hard to resist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long ITB<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Question. When an analyst lowers the price target on a stock to a level still substantially higher than the current price, what do you expect to happen? What if that price target comes with a downgrade from buy to neutral? If you answered lower, you win a prize&#8230; a discounted price on homebuilder stocks. A &#8230; <a title=\"What Happened to the Homebuilders: A Citigroup Downgrade\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/07\/02\/what-happened-to-homebuilders-a-citigroup-downgrade\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":69279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[393,35,62,982],"tags":[2259,893,1003,1051,2663,1206,78,77,3515],"class_list":["post-69478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyst-coverage","category-housing","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-carter-worth","tag-citigroup","tag-dhi","tag-dr-horton-inc","tag-ishares-u-s-home-construction-etf","tag-itb","tag-len","tag-lennar","tag-lennar-corporation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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