{"id":69141,"date":"2024-06-06T18:41:09","date_gmt":"2024-06-07T01:41:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=69141"},"modified":"2024-06-06T18:41:44","modified_gmt":"2024-06-07T01:41:44","slug":"an-early-trigger-on-20pct-rule-for-buying-ewz-brazil-etf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/06\/06\/an-early-trigger-on-20pct-rule-for-buying-ewz-brazil-etf\/","title":{"rendered":"An Early Trigger on the 20% Rule for Buying EWZ (Brazil ETF)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Earlier this week, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) tested its October, 2023 low. This test of support stopped just short of a 20% correction from the last high set on December 19, 2023. At the closing low, EWZ reached an 18.3% pullback from that last high. I decided to pull an early trigger on <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/05\/23\/buy-ewz-but-trend-turning-down\/\">the 20% rule for buying EWZ<\/a> for three key reasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Partially thanks to this week&#8217;s rate cuts from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofcanada.ca\/2024\/06\/fad-press-release-2024-06-05\/\">the Bank of Canada (BoC)<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pr\/date\/2024\/html\/ecb.mp240606~2148ecdb3c.en.html\">the European Central Bank (ECB)<\/a>, financial markets are sniffing out the start of a global rate cut cycle. These rate cuts tend to support commodity prices and risk-seeking in emerging markets. Brazil checks off on both.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The October lows provide a natural point of support for buying EWZ.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I learned a lasting lesson from passing over buying NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) because its steep one-day sell-off on April 19, 2024 came $6 short of my $750 buy target. NVDA closed today at $1209.98.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"837\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20240606_EWZ-iShares-MSCI-Brazil-ETF.png\" alt=\"The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) rebounded perfectly off its October low. So far, so good.\" class=\"wp-image-69142\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20240606_EWZ-iShares-MSCI-Brazil-ETF.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20240606_EWZ-iShares-MSCI-Brazil-ETF-768x426.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20240606_EWZ-iShares-MSCI-Brazil-ETF-1320x732.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) rebounded perfectly off its October low. So far, so good.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>If EWZ continues lower from here, I will buy at least one more time at the exact point of the 20% correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>My 20% rule for buying EWZ is a short-term (or swing) trade. Note well, EWZ traded around $61 (not adjusted for dividends) around the time when I first formalized this rule in 2010. This time around, a declining 50-day moving average (DMA) may define the ceiling for this recent trade. However, if the Federal Reserve surprises markets with a rate cut next week or even rolls out a specific timetable for a rate cut, I fully expect EWZ to eventually log a 50DMA breakout and continue rallying.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"837\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20240606_TLT-iShares-20-Year-Treasury-Bond-ETF.png\" alt=\"The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) finally broke away from its downtrend channel as bond markets sniff out an imminent rate cut cycle and sense looming economic weakening.\" class=\"wp-image-69143\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20240606_TLT-iShares-20-Year-Treasury-Bond-ETF.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20240606_TLT-iShares-20-Year-Treasury-Bond-ETF-768x426.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20240606_TLT-iShares-20-Year-Treasury-Bond-ETF-1320x732.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) finally broke away from its downtrend channel as bond markets sniff out an imminent rate cut cycle and sense looming economic weakening.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The chart above shows an important breakout for the the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). A higher TLT means lower rates, so the breakout, combined with the higher low, suggests that rates will start to trend lower from here. Given the stock market&#8217;s giddy anticipation of Fed rate cuts at some point, I bought TLT puts into this pop as a small hedge against other bullish trades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long EWZ, long TLT puts, long NVDA call diagonal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Earlier this week, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) tested its October, 2023 low. This test of support stopped just short of a 20% correction from the last high set on December 19, 2023. At the closing low, EWZ reached an 18.3% pullback from that last high. I decided to pull an early trigger on &#8230; <a title=\"An Early Trigger on the 20% Rule for Buying EWZ (Brazil ETF)\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/06\/06\/an-early-trigger-on-20pct-rule-for-buying-ewz-brazil-etf\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":69146,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[181,511,62,1210],"tags":[183,1242,2704,115,280],"class_list":["post-69141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brazil","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-model","tag-ewz","tag-ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf","tag-ishares-msci-brazil-etf","tag-monetary-policy","tag-tlt"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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