{"id":68308,"date":"2024-04-04T18:40:45","date_gmt":"2024-04-05T01:40:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=68308"},"modified":"2024-04-04T18:43:58","modified_gmt":"2024-04-05T01:43:58","slug":"watching-nvda-instead-of-jobs-report-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/04\/04\/watching-nvda-instead-of-jobs-report-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Watching NVDA Instead of the Jobs Report &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) confirmed a double-top with today&#8217;s 3.4% loss. For only the sixth time this year, NVDA closed below its uptrending support at the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line below). Three of these closes have come in the last three days. The stock is now within &#8220;inches&#8221; of confirming <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Pa826lZfUxM\">the bearish-engulfing topping pattern<\/a> that has made me leery for almost a month. While most eyes will be on Friday&#8217;s job report for March, my eyes will be watching NVDA instead given how the stock has captured the stock market&#8217;s imagination and sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"836\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_NVDA-NVIDIA-Corporation.png\" alt=\"NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is looking even more toppy after a decisive close below 20DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-68309\" title=\"NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_NVDA-NVIDIA-Corporation.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_NVDA-NVIDIA-Corporation-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_NVDA-NVIDIA-Corporation-1320x746.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is looking even more toppy after a decisive close below 20DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/03\/29\/market-breadth-ends-q1-with-an-important-breakout\/\">my last Market Breadth<\/a>, in reference to 20DMA support, I claimed that &#8220;if NVDA actually closes lower, the technical flavor of the market will sour just a bit.&#8221; The technical flavor has indeed soured with the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ also marking their first decisive closes below 20DMA support of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In my last post I also claimed that &#8220;if NVDA closes below the last lows, around $840, suddenly a quick test of 50DMA support comes into play.&#8221; That test is now within reach. Given how NVDA has captured market sentiment, that 50DMA test could be the (technical) event of the year so far. A failure of 50DMA support would\/should shift sentiment decisively in favor of the bears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, I am watching NVDA instead of the jobs report, and I will be more interested in the trading action in NVDA as another earnings season approaches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) lost 1.2% as it closed below its 20DMA support. A firm uptrend looks further disturbed by the bearish engulfing pattern caused by today&#8217;s sharp reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_SPY-SP500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"836\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_SPY-SP500.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) suffers a decisive close below its uptrending 20DMA support with a 1.2% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-68313\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2.0047732696897373;width:812px;height:auto\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_SPY-SP500.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_SPY-SP500-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_SPY-SP500-1320x746.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) suffers a decisive close below its uptrending 20DMA support with a 1.2% loss.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) printed an even more notable bearish engulfing pattern along with its decisive close below uptrending 20DMA support. The 1.4% loss even put a 50DMA test within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1479\" height=\"836\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) suffered a decisive close below uptrending 20DMA support and is already close to a critical test of 50DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-68312\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:836px;height:auto\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png 1479w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_COMPQ-NASDAQ-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_COMPQ-NASDAQ-1320x746.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1479px) 100vw, 1479px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) suffered a decisive close below uptrending 20DMA support and is already close to a critical test of 50DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call While Watching NVDA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 52.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 60.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: skeptical<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, closed at 52.1%. Just like that, my favorite technical indicator is no longer threatening to return to overbought territory (above 70%). Thus, the rally of this year remains unconfirmed, and I remain skeptical for the short-term trading call.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While watching NVDA, I am also watching the entire <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/05\/25\/running-with-picks-and-shovels-in-generative-ai-race\/\">generative AI trade<\/a>. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) took a major hit on the day with an 8.3% loss that confirmed a 50DMA breakdown. With the stock teetering right at its February lows, I am officially on edge for the generative AI trade!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_AMD-Advanced-Micro-Devices.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"836\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_AMD-Advanced-Micro-Devices.png\" alt=\"Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) suffered a big blow with an 8.3% loss that decisively confirmed a 50DMA breakdown.\" class=\"wp-image-68314\" title=\"Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_AMD-Advanced-Micro-Devices.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_AMD-Advanced-Micro-Devices-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_AMD-Advanced-Micro-Devices-1320x746.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) suffered a big blow with an 8.3% loss that decisively confirmed a 50DMA breakdown.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) followed through with the Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze I pointed out in my last Market Breadth. However, today&#8217;s small fade from an intraday all-time high looks like the end of the latest sprint higher. I doubt gold bugs will be watching NVDA. They will instead watch for a weak jobs report which could reinforce expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve (putting aside the latest &#8220;hawkish&#8221; posturing from Fed governors with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/feds-kashkari-says-2024-rate-cuts-under-threat-if-inflation-continues-stall-2024-04-04\/\">non-voting Minneapolis governor Neel Kashakri particularly scaring the market today<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"836\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust.png\" alt=\"The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) resolved a Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze to the upside to fresh all-time highs.\" class=\"wp-image-68320\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust-1320x746.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) resolved a Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze to the upside to fresh all-time highs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"836\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) faded sharply from the overbought threshold.\" class=\"wp-image-68315\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_AT50-MMFI.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_AT50-MMFI-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_AT50-MMFI-1320x746.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) faded sharply from the overbought threshold.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Day #91 over 20%, Day #89 over 30%, Day #87 over 40%, Day #35 over 50% (overperiod), Day #3 under 60% (underperiod), Day #58 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong> long GLD, long AMD, long DELL<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) confirmed a double-top with today&#8217;s 3.4% loss. For only the sixth time this year, NVDA closed below its uptrending support at the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line below). Three of these closes have come in the last three days. The stock is now within &#8220;inches&#8221; of confirming &#8230; <a title=\"Watching NVDA Instead of the Jobs Report &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/04\/04\/watching-nvda-instead-of-jobs-report-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3252,219,796],"tags":[3110,1168,1819,200,24,2833,413,1812,2115,65,499,362],"class_list":["post-68308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-artificial-intelligence","category-high-tech","category-semiconductors","tag-advanced-micro-devices-inc","tag-amd","tag-at40","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-mmfi","tag-nasdaq","tag-nvda","tag-nvidia-corporation","tag-sp-500","tag-spdr-gold-trust","tag-spy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Watching NVDA Instead of the Jobs Report - The Market Breadth - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) confirmed a double-top with today\u2019s 3.4% loss. 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Thus, I will be watching NVDA instead of the March jobs report.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/04\/04\/watching-nvda-instead-of-jobs-report-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-04-05T01:40:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-05T01:43:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240404_NVDA-NVIDIA-Corporation.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Watching NVDA Instead of the Jobs Report - The Market Breadth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) confirmed a double-top with today\u2019s 3.4% loss. 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