{"id":67972,"date":"2024-03-09T23:20:46","date_gmt":"2024-03-10T07:20:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=67972"},"modified":"2024-03-09T23:44:49","modified_gmt":"2024-03-10T07:44:49","slug":"speculating-innovation-etfs-vs-big-cap-tech-arkk-ipo-qqq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/03\/09\/speculating-innovation-etfs-vs-big-cap-tech-arkk-ipo-qqq\/","title":{"rendered":"Speculating On Innovation ETFs Versus Big Cap Tech: ARKK vs IPO vs QQQ"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This year has been a surprisingly good year for speculating. The race to the end of 2023 looked like it priced in a lot of good news, but the good news (in price action) continues apace year-to-date. Thus, I decided to take a fresh look at last year’s claim: “Renaissance IPO ETF A Less Volatile Way to Speculate Than ARKK<\/a>“. Interestingly, the rally since that post has advantaged the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) so much so that IPO now essentially looks overall better than the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Given this development, I added to the mix the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), the ETF of big cap technology stocks. ARK’s Cathie Wood regularly scoffs at many of the companies in QQQ as the sluggards who will get slayed by her army of disruptors. So far, maturity continues to win the long race!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following table shows the price performance of the three ETFs using the closing price downloaded from Yahoo Finance<\/a>. The links below provide the data files. I used the Data Analyst in ChatGPT to quickly generate this table with the data (and yes, I did some manual checks. I even asked ChatGPT to show its work in detail. See the appendix below for this self-validation). QQQ is the hands-down winner across all timeframes. Meanwhile, IPO beats out ARKK in all but the longest timeframe; good luck in being smart enough to load up in 2016. Perhaps most importantly, this year IPO is not just a way to lose less than ARKK when speculating falls out of favor, IPO is doing well enough to keep pace with QQQ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Time Frame<\/th>ARKK<\/a> (%)<\/th>IPO<\/a> (%)<\/th>QQQ<\/a> (%)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Since 2016<\/td>148.0<\/td>93.3<\/td>292.5<\/td><\/tr>
Since 2020<\/td>1.4<\/td>29.8<\/td>106.5<\/td><\/tr>
Since 2021<\/td>-59.2<\/td>-37.4<\/td>39.9<\/td><\/tr>
Since 2022<\/td>-46.3<\/td>-30.2<\/td>10.3<\/td><\/tr>
Since 2023<\/td>62.5<\/td>63.3<\/td>64.9<\/td><\/tr>
Year-to-date<\/td>-3.1<\/td>7.1<\/td>7.2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
Comparative price performance of ARKK vs IPO and QQQ over multiple time frames.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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