{"id":67753,"date":"2024-02-24T23:02:56","date_gmt":"2024-02-25T07:02:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=67753"},"modified":"2024-02-25T09:09:39","modified_gmt":"2024-02-25T17:09:39","slug":"all-hail-nvidia-and-a-new-market-call-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/02\/24\/all-hail-nvidia-and-a-new-market-call-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"All Hail NVIDIA and A New Market Call &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a deepening irony in my on-going bearishness on the stock market. The sector most visibly responsible for the anti-bearish animal spirits leaning against <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/02\/18\/more-red-flags-after-tstock-market-moves-in-chunks-the-market-breadth\/\">poor market breadth<\/a> is the same sector <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/05\/25\/running-with-picks-and-shovels-in-generative-ai-race\/\">I remain unapologetically bullish about: Artificial Intelligence (AI)<\/a>. The ironic contrast was in full display last week as the bullish rallying cry went out &#8220;All Hail, NVIDIA.&#8221; The heralded semiconductor company reported another round of impressive earnings just in time to end the latest shallow dip in the major indices. As I scrambled to put into play a fresh set of (short-term) AI bullish trades, I realized that my bearish trading call on the market needs a modification. Before I explain the changes, let&#8217;s take a look at my favorite three major indices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) hailed NVIDIA with a picture-perfect bounce off support at its 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line below). The index gained 2.1% and closed at a new all-time high. Sellers faded Friday&#8217;s follow-through buying and left the index essentially flat with its all-time high. The consistency of 20DMA support throughout this run-up has been truly impressive.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"798\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) set an all-time high, invalidated a bearish topping signal, and confirmed 20DMA support as it continues a steady uptrend.\" class=\"wp-image-67730\" style=\"width:840px;height:419px\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SP-500-SPY.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SP-500-SPY-768x381.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SP-500-SPY-1536x761.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SP-500-SPY-1320x654.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) set an all-time high, invalidated a bearish topping signal, and confirmed 20DMA support as it continues a steady uptrend.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) has travelled a bumpy road along 20DMA support. The tech-laden index even found itself closed below its 20DMA ahead of NVIDIA earnings. The move seemed to confirm<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/02\/14\/be-ready-kind-of-day-in-stock-market-the-market-breadth\/\"> the bearish topping pattern from February 12th<\/a>. However, the NASDAQ hailed NVIDIA with a 3.0% gain and a one-day reversal of the entire bearish signal. Buyers surprisingly failed to confirm the fresh multi-year breakout with a higher close. The NASDAQ faded to a 0.3% loss for Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1608\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) recovered from a 20DMA breakdown, but dipped and lost its all-time high.\" class=\"wp-image-67731\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1608w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1608px) 100vw, 1608px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) recovered from a 20DMA breakdown, but dipped and lost its all-time high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gave NVIDIA a &#8220;mini&#8221; hail. The ETF of small caps gained 0.8% and pulled off a picture-perfect defense of 50DMA support (the red line below). IWM&#8217;s 20DMA also received a ringing endorsement. The small move allowed me to scramble my way into a diagonal calendar call spread and a regular call spread in IWM at reasonable prices. I locked in a small profit on the calendar spread on Friday. Needless to say, IWM is in a bullish position as long as it trades above its bear market line and its uptrending 20DMA and 50DMA.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1608\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) found on-going support from its 20DMA and 50DMA.\" class=\"wp-image-67732\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1608w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1608px) 100vw, 1608px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) found on-going support from its 20DMA and 50DMA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call While Hailing NVIDIA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 55.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 61.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: skeptical<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, demonstrated almost none of the market&#8217;s enthusiasm for NVIDIA. My favorite technical indicator gained a fraction of a percentage point on Thursday and again on Friday. Given the on-going downtrend in AT50, this sluggishness further deepened my skepticism about the market&#8217;s current underlying health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, after I stepped back and noticed other pockets of the market breaking out and\/or enjoying healthy rallies, retail and restaurants in particular, I realized that a bearish trading call on the market is not a functional description for this market juncture. Instead, it is an overly committed positioning in <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/02\/03\/sharp-contrast-between-two-truths-of-stock-market-the-market-breadth\/\">this market with co-existing bullish and bearish truths<\/a>. As a result, I decided to invent a new short-term trading call: &#8220;skeptical.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I dropped the bearish call in deference to the plentitude of bullish trading opportunities in the stock market. I am definitely not bullish because <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">my AT50 trading rules<\/a> insist that I avoid bullishness here. Finally, I did not compromise with a downgrade to neutral because I still have a strong and negative opinion about the market. In this context, &#8220;skeptical&#8221; gives me a good framework for trading the bullish opportunities while my bearish views scream at me to be ready so I do not need to get ready.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Inversion in the options market!<br><br>Mandy Xu of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CBOE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@CBOE<\/a> joins the Fast desk to share the unusual activity she saw in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24NVDA&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$NVDA<\/a> ahead of earnings, signs in the Russell 2000 and what it all says about investor sentiment. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/38cAWcyXbM\">pic.twitter.com\/38cAWcyXbM<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC&#39;s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBCFastMoney\/status\/1760795098898391111?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 22, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>All hail NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)! Before reporting earnings, NVDA dipped straight to 20DMA support. The close was a classic do-or-die, pre-earnings moment. NVDA delivered and surged 16.4% to a new all-time high. The relentless push higher sent me scrambling for a trade. A weekly calendar spread is one of my favorite trades for chasing short-term momentum especially a day before the short side expires. On the day of expiration, the short side suffers rapid time decay while the long side expiring in the next week holds relative value. Thus, with a strike &#8220;close but not too close&#8221; any move higher will deliver profits and even smaller moves lower can be profitable. In the case of a sharp pullback, the position has a little time to recover in the time remaining before expiration. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I picked a weekly NVDA calendar call with an $800 strike. NVDA gapped up on Friday to open around $808 (making me wish I chose the $810 strike!), so I moved quickly to take profits. I kept periodic tabs on the price dynamics and was stunned to see how much money I actually left on the table as NVDA faded the rest of the day. Even at NVDA&#8217;s <strong>flat<\/strong> close of $788.17, the long call <strong>gained<\/strong> around 15%; quite a surprising close. Thus the risk\/reward of the position was even better than I expected. These price dynamics demonstrate the heavy bias traders have for NVDA call options!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1608\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA.png\" alt=\"All Hail NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)! The stock surged 16.4% post-earnings and held an all-time high despite a fade the next day.\" class=\"wp-image-67733\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA.png 1608w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-1320x653.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1608px) 100vw, 1608px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>All Hail NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)! The stock surged 16.4% post-earnings and held an all-time high despite a fade the next day.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Vending machine&#8221; used car company Carvana Co (CVNA) added itself to the list of surging stocks after a 32% post-earnings move. CVNA was up as much as 46% at the open. This breakout to a near 2-year high is bullish for CVNA (THAT admission was hard for me!). CVNA actually looks like a buy on the dips after its successful test of 50DMA support.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Carvana-Co-CVNA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Carvana-Co-CVNA.png\" alt=\"Carvana Co (CVNA) spiked upwards post-earnings by 32% and delivered a definitive confirmation of 50DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-67735\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Carvana Co (CVNA)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Carvana-Co-CVNA.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Carvana-Co-CVNA-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Carvana-Co-CVNA-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Carvana-Co-CVNA-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Carvana Co (CVNA) spiked upwards post-earnings by 32% and delivered a definitive confirmation of 50DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The biggest surprise breakout was not from the world of tech or rampant speculation. That honor goes to SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF (XRT). XRT has ground its way higher ever since a successful test of 50DMA support in late January. While the latest breakout move was only a 1.8% gain, it was enough to catch my attention. XRT helped convince me to change my short-term trading call. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With XRT in a very bullish position, I bought an XRT call spread.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SPDR-SP-Retail-ETF-XRT.png\" alt=\"SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF (XRT) broke out to a near 2-year high.\" class=\"wp-image-67736\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF (XRT)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SPDR-SP-Retail-ETF-XRT.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SPDR-SP-Retail-ETF-XRT-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SPDR-SP-Retail-ETF-XRT-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-SPDR-SP-Retail-ETF-XRT-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF (XRT) broke out to a near 2-year high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Cybersecurity software company Palo Alto Networks (PANW) cratered 28.4% post-earnings and closed at its intraday low on Wednesday. The collapse was a classic &#8220;be ready so you don&#8217;t have to get ready&#8221; shock. It even looked like another warning signal for tech. The plunge forced Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) into a 50DMA breakdown and 5.0% loss. Buyers regained their resolve the next day with a gap up over the 50DMA. The move left behind a bullish bottoming hammer pattern. I bought shares in HACK and PANW on Friday. On Friday, PANW cleared its day one post-earnings candle and closed at a post-earnings high. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Amplify-Cybersecurity-ETF-HACK.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Amplify-Cybersecurity-ETF-HACK.png\" alt=\"Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) lost 5% on a 50DMA breakdown.  HACK turned right around with a fresh breakout.\" class=\"wp-image-67737\" title=\"Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Amplify-Cybersecurity-ETF-HACK.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Amplify-Cybersecurity-ETF-HACK-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Amplify-Cybersecurity-ETF-HACK-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Amplify-Cybersecurity-ETF-HACK-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) lost 5% on a 50DMA breakdown.  HACK turned right around with a fresh breakout.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Teledoc Health, Inc (TDOC) is a bona fide disaster. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/07\/29\/buyers-push-against-topping-indices-restart-overbought-conditions-the-market-breadth\/\">My hopes from summer, 2023 for a bottoming pattern<\/a> were shattered last week with a 23% post-earnings plunge. Sellers followed through right to Friday&#8217;s close and pounded TDOC back to levels last seen in 2016. I will concede defeat on this one. I will not look back until\/unless TDOC closes above its post-earnings intraday high.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC.png\" alt=\"Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC) took a huge 23% post earnings hit, and continued to fall to levels last seen in 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-67738\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC) took a huge 23% post earnings hit, and continued to fall to levels last seen in 2016.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>What is wrong with Zoom Video Communications (ZM)? While the stock is <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/04\/profit-taking-or-a-top-an-overbought-market-roundtrips-the-market-breadth\/\">a decent rangebound trade<\/a>, I am surprised ZM never caught fire with other speculative stocks. ZM is down significantly for the year and has enjoyed only small bursts of buying along the way down. Perhaps ZM will never reinvent itself enough to create sufficient distance from growing and improving competition in teleconferencing products? Meanwhile, <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/ZM\/key-statistics\">the valuation<\/a> is actually a reasonable 13.9 forward P\/E and 4.3 times sales.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM.png\" alt=\"Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM) approached the 20DMA after a steady decline toward all-time lows.\" class=\"wp-image-67739\" title=\"Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Zoom-Video-Communications-Inc-ZM-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM) approached the 20DMA after a steady decline toward all-time lows.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Roku, Inc (ROKU) ended the previous week with a 28.3% post-earnings collapse. Apparently, <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4068246-roku-slides-21-as-analysts-urge-caution-despite-strong-earnings\">Roku reported good earnings but not good enough<\/a>. The move left behind resistance at its 50DMA and seemed to confirm an imminent end to high-flying speculative trades. Sellers continued hitting ROKU until a slight respite on Friday. Until that point, I thought ROKU would quickly finish reversing all of its post-earnings gain from November.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Roku-Inc-ROKU.png\" alt=\"Roku Inc (ROKU) plunged by 23% post-earnings. The continued selling stopped short of filling the previous gap up.\" class=\"wp-image-67741\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Roku Inc (ROKU)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Roku-Inc-ROKU.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Roku-Inc-ROKU-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Roku-Inc-ROKU-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Roku-Inc-ROKU-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Roku Inc (ROKU) plunged by 23% post-earnings. The continued selling stopped short of filling the previous gap up.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) is a lost steward this year. While all hail NVIDIA, AAPL looks like an exhausted star with negative year-to-date performance. Buyers attempted a spirited rebound from this month&#8217;s large post-earnings gap down. Unfortunately, the buyers were quickly stymied by 50DMA resistance. AAPL has languished ever since. AAPL&#8217;s decline of 1.0% on Friday was a telling confirmation of underperformance. A close below the post-earnings intraday low will be deeply bearish for AAPL.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1608\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png\" alt=\"Apple Inc (AAPL) was barely able to break out of the 20DMA before failing at 50DMA resistance.\" class=\"wp-image-67742\" title=\"Apple Inc (AAPL)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png 1608w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Apple-Inc-AAPL-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Apple-Inc-AAPL-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Apple-Inc-AAPL-1320x653.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1608px) 100vw, 1608px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Apple Inc (AAPL) was barely able to break out of the 20DMA before failing at 50DMA resistance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Travel reservations company Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) rallied into earnings including a 4.3% gain and breakout to a fresh all-time high. BKNG proceeded to deliver a 50DMA breakdown and a 10% post-earnings loss. The plunge wiped out all of 2024&#8217;s gains. A second close lower would confirms a new bearish cycle for BKNG.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"797\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Booking-Holdings-Inc-BKNG.png\" alt=\"Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) broke down below the 50DMA after a substantial 10% post earnings hit.\" class=\"wp-image-67743\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Booking-Holdings-Inc-BKNG.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Booking-Holdings-Inc-BKNG-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Booking-Holdings-Inc-BKNG-1536x761.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-Booking-Holdings-Inc-BKNG-1320x654.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) broke down below the 50DMA after a substantial 10% post earnings hit.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) tried to stabilize after its rocky and shaky start to the month. AT50 barely responded to the hails to NVDA.\" class=\"wp-image-67744\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT50-MMFI.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT50-MMFI-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT50-MMFI-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT50-MMFI-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) tried to stabilize after its rocky and shaky start to the month. AT50 barely responded to the hails to NVDA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) has churned in a range all year.\" class=\"wp-image-67746\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT200-MMTH.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT200-MMTH-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT200-MMTH-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/022324-AT200-MMTH-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) has churned in a range all year.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Day #63 over 20%, Day #61 over 30%, Day #59 over 40%, Day #7 over 50% (overperiod), Day #19 under 60%, Day #30 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long IWM call spread, long XRT call spread, long HACK, long PANW, long TDOC, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary There is a deepening irony in my on-going bearishness on the stock market. The sector most visibly responsible for the anti-bearish animal spirits leaning against poor market breadth is the same sector I remain unapologetically bullish about: Artificial Intelligence (AI). The ironic contrast was in full display last week as the bullish &#8230; <a title=\"All Hail NVIDIA and A New Market Call &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/02\/24\/all-hail-nvidia-and-a-new-market-call-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":67758,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[368,483,482,3148,1576,300,219,512,338,796,1311,511,62,982,1633,920],"tags":[250,3437,534,2832,2165,2384,2483,3279,2201,1870,1821,2218,909,413,1812,2115,2405,1778,1984,2947,65,327,362,2744,2945,2303,282,2207,2336],"class_list":["post-67753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-automotive","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-communications","category-entertainment","category-health-care","category-high-tech","category-resistance","category-retail","category-semiconductors","category-software","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","category-travel","category-uptrend","tag-aapl","tag-amplify-cybersecurity-etf","tag-apple-inc","tag-at50","tag-bkng","tag-booking-holdings","tag-carvana","tag-cnbc-fast-money","tag-compq","tag-cvna","tag-hack","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-nvda","tag-nvidia-corporation","tag-palo-alto-networks","tag-panw","tag-roku","tag-roku-inc","tag-sp-500","tag-spdr-sp-retail-etf","tag-spy","tag-tdoc","tag-teledoc-health-inc","tag-trading-call-change","tag-xrt","tag-zm","tag-zoom-video-communications"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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