{"id":67409,"date":"2024-01-28T09:04:57","date_gmt":"2024-01-28T17:04:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=67409"},"modified":"2024-01-29T21:08:57","modified_gmt":"2024-01-30T05:08:57","slug":"weeks-rally-failed-to-erase-key-bearish-trading-signal-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/28\/weeks-rally-failed-to-erase-key-bearish-trading-signal-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"The Week&#8217;s Rally Failed to Erase Key Bearish Trading Signal &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A bearish divergence is well underway in the stock market. While the S&amp;P 500 and NASDAQ rally, a key bearish trading signal persists in market breadth. The previous week, <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/16\/bring-on-bears-overbought-conditions-end-decisively-the-market-breadth\/\">market breadth created a strong bearish signal<\/a> by slicing below the overbought threshold. This key bearish trading signal was reinforced by last week&#8217;s failure to overcome the 70% threshold. This divergence causes a kind of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dictionary.com\/browse\/cognitive-dissonance\">cognitive dissonance<\/a> as well. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">My market breadth trading rules and experience<\/a> tell my rational side to stick to the bearish side of the market&#8217;s two truths. The plentitude of bullish stock patterns tell my emotional side to ride the bull as far as possible! Thus, I have a motto for this year to anchor me: &#8220;be ready so I don&#8217;t have to get ready.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) stepped steadily higher the first 4 days of last week and set all-time highs each time. Friday&#8217;s flat close provided the slightest hint of exhaustion. The blip by itself is not a key bearish trading signal.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) barely missed sitting all-time highs the entire week of trading.\" class=\"wp-image-67394\" style=\"width:840px;height:419px\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-SP-500-SPY.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-SP-500-SPY-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-SP-500-SPY-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-SP-500-SPY-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) barely missed setting all-time highs the entire week of trading.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) had a Friday weak enough to suggest that tech buyers are finally a little exhausted. The pattern is not quite a key bearish trading signal, but it is a step in the right direction. The tech laden index lost 0.4% after two days of struggling to deliver for buyers. Sellers need to follow-through to create momentum for a test of 20DMA support or more.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)'s rise seemed to stagnate as it slowly increased less and less.\" class=\"wp-image-67395\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1320x649.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>NASDAQ (COMPQ)&#8217;s rise seemed to stagnate as it slowly increased less and less.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) churned after starting the week with a 2.1% gain and breakout above its bear market line. I thought this line would hold as resistance. Instead, the ETF of small caps is making an effort to hold the line as support. I went ahead and added a put option to my bet against IWM. Having said that, subsequent selling could enjoy a fresh show of support from an uptrending 50DMA.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) broke back out of the bear market line and 20DMA.\" class=\"wp-image-67396\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1536x755.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1320x649.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) broke back out of the bear market line and 20DMA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With A Key Bearish Trading Signal<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 65.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 62.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: bearish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, closed at 65.2%. Importantly, on Tuesday, my favorite technical indicator jumped right to the overbought threshold of 70% and reversed direction. Sellers confirmed this bearish rejection the following day. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">my AT50 trading rules<\/a>, this behavior is a key bearish trading signal. Thus, I dropped &#8220;cautiously&#8221; from the short-term trading call. It is a difficult call to make given all the impressive corners of bullishness in the market. Sectors like semiconductors and financials are experiencing strong breakouts. Per rule, I will flip to neutral if AT50 returns to overbought trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most of the following charts help me confirm my bearish bias&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pain did not end for Humana Inc (HUM) with its pre-earnings warning. Apparently, the company managed to deliver even more bad news for its earnings report. The health insurer shocked analysts with <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4058389-humana-stock-plunges-as-earnings-outlook-falls-far-below-estimates\">full-year guidance well under expectations<\/a> (I do not know whether analysts reduced expectations after the earnings warning). HUM lost 11.7% on Thursday and dropped to a 3-year closing low. In <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/20\/stock-bulls-taunt-suddenly-hesitant-bears-the-market-breadth\/\">a market of two truths<\/a>, Humana is trapped deep in a bearish truth.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Humana-Inc-HUM.png\" alt=\"Humana Inc (HUM) delivered yet more bad news during earnings and traded to a 2-year low.\" class=\"wp-image-67397\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Humana Inc (HUM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Humana-Inc-HUM.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Humana-Inc-HUM-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Humana-Inc-HUM-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Humana-Inc-HUM-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Humana Inc (HUM) delivered yet more bad news during earnings and traded to a 3-year closing low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) is in a different kind of bearish position. While the stock remains above an uptrending 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below), its recovery rally fell short of challenging the all-time high. The subsequent 3 days of selling looks like exhaustion ahead of disappointing earnings news. I did not activate the <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/01\/02\/banner-year-for-apple-trading-model\/\">Apple Trading Model (ATM)<\/a> as my target call spread did not quite hit my preferred entry price. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1605\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png\" alt=\"The rapid recovery for Apple Inc (AAPL) came to a dead stop just under all-time highs.\" class=\"wp-image-67399\" title=\"Apple Inc (AAPL)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png 1605w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Apple-Inc-AAPL-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Apple-Inc-AAPL-1536x761.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Apple-Inc-AAPL-1320x654.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1605px) 100vw, 1605px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The rapid recovery for Apple Inc (AAPL) came to a dead stop just under all-time highs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>So much for Intel Corporation (INTC) riding the coattails of the bullish rally in semiconductor stocks. An 11.9% post-earnings plunge and 50DMA breakdown left behind what looks like a double-top. INTC&#8217;s crime was providing <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4059006-intels-weak-guidance-shows-chip-giant--has-more-bumpy-road-ahead\">revenue and earnings guidance well below analyst expectations<\/a>. I am now looking to buy between earnings call options on INTC. I am waiting for either 1) a close above the 50DMA, or 2) a much lower close, like a retest of the December lows.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Intel-Corp-INTC.png\" alt=\"Intel Corporation (INTC) plunged 11.9% post-earnings. The 50DMA breakdown took the stock to a 1-month low.\" class=\"wp-image-67400\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Intel Corporation (INTC)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Intel-Corp-INTC.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Intel-Corp-INTC-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Intel-Corp-INTC-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Intel-Corp-INTC-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Intel Corporation (INTC) plunged 11.9% post-earnings. The 50DMA breakdown took the stock to a 1-month low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The Hershey Company (HSY) completely missed the stock market rally off the October lows. The chocolate company even managed to set a new 2-year low last month. HSY has churned and pivoted around its 50DMA since starting the year with a 3.0% pop. The 20DMA (the dashed line) joined the fun last week. I bought some long-terms shares assuming HSY is slowly carving out a bottom with the price consolidation and basing.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Hershey-Co-HSY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Hershey-Co-HSY.png\" alt=\"Hershey Co (HSY) has clung to $180 in attempt to stem its downtrend with a basing pattern converged on 20DMA and 50DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-67401\" title=\"Hershey Co (HSY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Hershey-Co-HSY.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Hershey-Co-HSY-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Hershey-Co-HSY-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Hershey-Co-HSY-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Hershey Co (HSY) has clung to $180 in attempt to stem its downtrend with a basing pattern converged on 20DMA and 50DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) got hit with an accounting scandal. <a href=\"https:\/\/investors.adm.com\/news\/news-details\/2024\/ADM-Appoints-Ismael-Roig-Interim-Chief-Financial-Officer\/default.aspx\">The agricultural products company put its CFO on administrative leave<\/a> &#8220;pending an ongoing investigation being conducted by outside counsel for ADM and the Board\u2019s Audit Committee regarding certain accounting practices and procedures with respect to ADM\u2019s Nutrition reporting segment, including as related to certain intersegment transactions.&#8221; The investigation was triggered by an SEC inquiry. The subsequent 24.2% loss took ADM to a near 3-year low. Perhaps spending the year diverging from the market underneath a downtrending 50DMA was an early warning sign. Having said that, this failure looks like an opportunity to start accumulating ADM on the cheap. I bought a small number of shares after buyers showed a little interest. Earnings this coming week will be a true test.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Archer-Daniels-Midland-Co-ADM.png\" alt=\"Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) plummeted to a new 2-year low after the company put its CFO on leave amid an accounting scandal.\" class=\"wp-image-67402\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Archer-Daniels-Midland-Co-ADM.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Archer-Daniels-Midland-Co-ADM-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Archer-Daniels-Midland-Co-ADM-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Archer-Daniels-Midland-Co-ADM-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) plummeted to a new 2-year low after the company put its CFO on leave amid an accounting scandal.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Logitech International S.A. (LOGI) had a good run trying to recover from an awful 2021 and 2022. The PC accessories company looked poised to break out when earnings took the stock in the opposite direction. LOGI lost 11.5% post-earnings and closed below its 50DMA for the first time since October. Interestingly, <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4057176-logitech-beats-q3-top-and-bottom-line-estimates-raises-fy24-outlook\">LOGI raised its 2024 full-year guidance<\/a>. Thus this bearish move may not last long. I am content to wait.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Logitech-International-SA-LOGI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Logitech-International-SA-LOGI.png\" alt=\"Logitech International SA (LOGI) closed below its 50DMA for the first time since October after an 11.5% post-earnings plunge.\" class=\"wp-image-67403\" title=\"Logitech International SA (LOGI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Logitech-International-SA-LOGI.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Logitech-International-SA-LOGI-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Logitech-International-SA-LOGI-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-Logitech-International-SA-LOGI-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Logitech International SA (LOGI) closed below its 50DMA for the first time since October after an 11.5% post-earnings plunge.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>D.R. Horton (DHI) brought a dose of harsh reality to <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/12\/31\/soaring-stocks-falling-mortgage-rates\/\">the tremendous run-up in home builder stocks<\/a>. DHI lost 9.2% after reporting earnings. Sellers promptly took DHI below its 50DMA the next day. <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4057459-dr-horton-drops-the-most-since-2020-after-disappointing-q1-home-orders\">The company took a margin hit on its rate hedges when mortgage rates dropped in the last two months<\/a>. DHI will also continue to incentivize sales using rate locks. If DHI was not trading well above 2.0 price\/book, the resulting decline may not have been so dramatic. As it is, DHI looks like it printed a top in the home builder market for this <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/01\/03\/how-home-builder-stocks-trade-in-a-seasonal-pattern\/\">cycle of seasonal strength<\/a>. Thus DHI slipped from the bullish truths in the market to the edge of the market&#8217;s bearish truths.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-DR-Horton-Inc-DHI.png\" alt=\"Sellers pushed DR Horton Inc (DHI) below 50DMA support a day after a 9.2% post-earnings plunge.\" class=\"wp-image-67404\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"DR Horton Inc (DHI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-DR-Horton-Inc-DHI.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-DR-Horton-Inc-DHI-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-DR-Horton-Inc-DHI-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-DR-Horton-Inc-DHI-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Sellers pushed DR Horton Inc (DHI) below 50DMA support a day after a 9.2% post-earnings plunge.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>United Rentals, Inc (URI) is on the side of the bullish truths in the market. URI surged to an all-time high with a 13.0% surge. The move left the stock over-extended above its upper Bollinger Band (BB) and sellers happily stepped in to take advantage. Still, the breakout looks bullish and makes URI a buy-on-the-dip.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-United-Rentals-Inc-URI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"767\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-United-Rentals-Inc-URI.png\" alt=\"A 13.0% post-earnings surge took United Rentals, Inc (URI) to an all-time high. The next day sellers cooled the stock off over-stretched conditions.,\" class=\"wp-image-67405\" title=\"United Rentals, Inc (URI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-United-Rentals-Inc-URI.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-United-Rentals-Inc-URI-768x365.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-United-Rentals-Inc-URI-1536x731.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-United-Rentals-Inc-URI-1320x628.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>A 13.0% post-earnings surge took United Rentals, Inc (URI) to an all-time high. The next day sellers cooled the stock off over-stretched conditions.,<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"790\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) was rejected perfectly at the overbought threshold and thus further confirmed bearish conditions.\" class=\"wp-image-67406\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT50-MMFI.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT50-MMFI-768x377.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT50-MMFI-1536x754.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT50-MMFI-1320x648.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) was rejected perfectly at the overbought threshold and thus further confirmed bearish conditions.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"790\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) tried to steady itself after a slight dip a few days before.\" class=\"wp-image-67407\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT200-MMTH.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT200-MMTH-768x377.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT200-MMTH-1536x753.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/012724-AT200-MMTH-1320x647.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) tried to steady itself after a slight dip a few days before.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Day #54 over 20%, Day #52 over 30%, Day #50 over 40%, Day #49 over 50%, Day #46 over 60%, Day #8 under 70% (underperiod)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long ADM, long IWM put spread and put, long HSY<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary A bearish divergence is well underway in the stock market. While the S&amp;P 500 and NASDAQ rally, a key bearish trading signal persists in market breadth. The previous week, market breadth created a strong bearish signal by slicing below the overbought threshold. This key bearish trading signal was reinforced by last week&#8217;s &#8230; <a title=\"The Week&#8217;s Rally Failed to Erase Key Bearish Trading Signal &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/28\/weeks-rally-failed-to-erase-key-bearish-trading-signal-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":67415,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[673,584,483,482,1129,300,219,35,43,512,338,796,511,62,982],"tags":[250,3412,534,3413,1820,2832,1949,2201,1003,1051,1795,72,3411,222,2218,909,1294,1295,413,65,362,3321,2400,2106],"class_list":["post-67409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agriculture-2","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-food-retail","category-health-care","category-high-tech","category-housing","category-industrial-sector","category-resistance","category-retail","category-semiconductors","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-aapl","tag-adm","tag-apple-inc","tag-archer-daniels-midland-company","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-bearish-divergence","tag-compq","tag-dhi","tag-dr-horton-inc","tag-hsy","tag-hum","tag-humana-inc","tag-intc","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-logi","tag-logitech-intl-sa","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-the-hershey-company","tag-united-rentals","tag-uri"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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