{"id":67306,"date":"2024-01-16T22:54:05","date_gmt":"2024-01-17T06:54:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=67306"},"modified":"2024-01-16T22:56:49","modified_gmt":"2024-01-17T06:56:49","slug":"bring-on-bears-overbought-conditions-end-decisively-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/16\/bring-on-bears-overbought-conditions-end-decisively-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Bring on the Bears, Overbought Conditions End Decisively &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bring on the bears&#8230;<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/13\/implications-of-looming-end-to-overbought-conditions-the-market-breadth\/\">The process terminating a historically extended overbought period<\/a> started with the first trading day of the year. While the S&amp;P 500 recovered from the year&#8217;s initial fit of selling, small caps did not. The sagging fortunes of small caps have now returned the related ETF to bear market territory. That breakdown also contributed to a decisive slice through market breadth&#8217;s overbought threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The lingering strength in the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ means that the post overbought selling cycle could be an extended process. Market breadth could even turn on a dime and challenge the overbought threshold. So even as I declare &#8220;bring on the bears&#8221;, I am far from announcing the immediate arrival of significant market pain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) barely acknowledged the blowing of bearish winds. The index lost 0.4% but still managed to bounce off support at the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dashed line). If not for the end of overbought conditions, I would not even bother writing about this trading action. However, once the 20DMA gives way as support, the S&amp;P 500 will look like it printed a (minor) double top. I still expect the next sell-off to be shallow and well-supported by the uptrending 50DMA (the red line below). Needless to say, I took profits as planned on my calendar call spread.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) lost 0.4% but bounced perfectly off 20DMA support for the 3rd day of the last 5.\" class=\"wp-image-67298\" style=\"width:840px;height:419px\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-SP-500-SPY.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-SP-500-SPY-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-SP-500-SPY-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-SP-500-SPY-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) lost 0.4% but bounced perfectly off 20DMA support for the 3rd day of the last 5.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) also held its 20DMA support. The next test of 50DMA support is on schedule to coincide with a test of the 2024 low.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) lost just 0.2% but barely held 20DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-67299\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) lost just 0.2% but barely held 20DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has caught the focus of ire from the bears of 2024. Unlike the other two major indices, the index of small caps never rebounded from the year&#8217;s early sell-off. IWM&#8217;s attempt to consolidate below 20DMA resistance came to a decisive end with today&#8217;s 1.3% loss. This lower close below the bear market line officially ushers in a fresh bear market period for IWM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>IWM now looks ready to test 50DMA support at the same time it finishes reversing the 3.4% gain that preceded its celebratory, albeit, temporary end to its bear market. The downward turn in the lower Bollinger Band (BB) (the solid black lines carving out two standard deviations price volatility) sealed my deal on a weekly calendar put spread on IWM with the strike sitting right on top of the 50DMA at $187.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"Bring on the bears. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) confirmed its resumption of a bear market with a 1.3% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-67300\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x377.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1536x755.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1320x649.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Bring on the bears. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) confirmed its resumption of a bear market with a 1.3% loss.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With A Bring on the Bears<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 62.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (ending 29 days overbought)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 59.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bearish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, plunged from the edge of the overbought threshold to close at 62.3%. This decisive end to the overbought period was sufficient to trigger <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">my rules for flipping bearish<\/a>. Accordingly, I changed my short-term trading call from neutral to cautiously bearish. The caution is necessary because I do not think the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ will easily or readily follow IWM&#8217;s breakdown. Moreover, I expect a shallow sell-off. However, a topping pattern in the longer-term indicator of market breadth, AT200 (MMTH), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, suggests that further upside is tightly capped in the short-term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If my favorite technical indicator turns right around and gets back to overbought conditions, I will just as quickly flip neutral. I will only get short-term bullish again on a successful test of 50DMA support by the S&amp;P 500 or on oversold conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I took great interest in the latest prognostication from permabull Tom Lee of Fundstrat. He expects a 7% drawdown after January before the stock market regains its mojo in the second half of the year. He maintains a 5200 target on the S&amp;P 500 and a mouth-watering gain of 40-50% for small caps. I am habitually skeptical of predictions in the stock market. Yet, I cannot help giving these predictions serious consideration since they roughly align to post overbought selling that in turn generates a major buying opportunity during oversold conditions. As always, one-step-at-a-time&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Fundstrat&#039;s Tom Lee: Markets could see a 7% draw down after this month\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7NsawcXQeWI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>I think of this market as almost entirely trading on monetary policy, so I am assuming monetary policy will be at the center of the market&#8217;s excuse to sell. If so, then the March announcement on monetary policy looks like a perfect pivot point. The market still expects the Fed to start cutting in March (62% chance), so I see a lose-lose scenario with either 1) the market selling on the highly anticipated news (oh no, the Fed confirmed it fears a recession is near!), or 2) the market selling on the disappointment of no rate cut (oh no, the Fed is determined to cause a recession in order to completely squash inflation!).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1320\" height=\"771\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/20240116_Fed-Fund-Futures-March-2024-meeting.png\" alt=\"According to the current Fed Fund Futures, the Fed will most likely roll out its first rate cut in March.\" class=\"wp-image-67311\" title=\"Fed Fund Futures - March 2024 meeting\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/20240116_Fed-Fund-Futures-March-2024-meeting.png 1320w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/20240116_Fed-Fund-Futures-March-2024-meeting-768x449.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1320px) 100vw, 1320px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><strong>According to the current Fed Fund Futures, the Fed will most likely roll out its first rate cut in March.<\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>At 29 days long, the last overbought period reached historically extended levels. Per the chart below, only 13 other overbought periods since 1986 lasted longer. Overbought conditions ended with the S&amp;P 500 recording a 3.7% gain over this period. This performance is slightly below the expectations represented by the green line below. Once again we see how the start of an overbought period is NOT an automatic bearish signal (especially for the S&amp;P 500).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"660\" height=\"446\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/201223_SP500-Performance-Overbought.jpg\" alt=\"Performance of the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) After An Overbought Period Ends\" class=\"wp-image-55506\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Performance of the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) After An Overbought Period Ends<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>In another tale of &#8220;live by speculation, die by speculation&#8221;, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) significantly underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by the end of the overbought period. Bears who shorted Cathie Wood&#8217;s core ETF of speculation at the start of overbought trading are sitting on a 3.6% gain. However, ARK&#8217;s 11.4% gain at its overbought peak far outperformed the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s 4.1% gain at last week&#8217;s overbought peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the current change in fortunes, I am now using my ARKK holdings as a hedge against bearishness. Notably, ARKK essentially lost all its gains from last month and is now teetering on confirming a bearish 50DMA breakdown.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-ARK-Innovation-ETF-ARKK.png\" alt=\"The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) finished reversing its December gains and closed below its 50DMA for the first time in 2 months.\" class=\"wp-image-67301\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-ARK-Innovation-ETF-ARKK.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-ARK-Innovation-ETF-ARKK-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-ARK-Innovation-ETF-ARKK-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-ARK-Innovation-ETF-ARKK-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) finished reversing its December gains and closed below its 50DMA for the first time in 2 months.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>I thought I did well by profitably <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/04\/profit-taking-or-a-top-an-overbought-market-roundtrips-the-market-breadth\/\">trading Advanced Micro Devices, Inc<\/a> (AMD) from its rebound away from its 20DMA. Today&#8217;s 8.4% surge left me flat footed with empty pockets. My new favorite trade on <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/05\/25\/running-with-picks-and-shovels-in-generative-ai-race\/\">the generative AI trade<\/a> did not quite pull back far enough to move me to a fresh buy. AMD&#8217;s defiance of the bearish taint in the air is one of many examples of stocks that may very well ignore the market weakness led by small caps&#8230;for THIS cycle of selling anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-Advanced-Micro-Devices-Inc-AMD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1607\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-Advanced-Micro-Devices-Inc-AMD.png\" alt=\"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD) defied the bears with an 8.4% surge that challenged all-time highs. \" class=\"wp-image-67302\" title=\"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-Advanced-Micro-Devices-Inc-AMD.png 1607w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-Advanced-Micro-Devices-Inc-AMD-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-Advanced-Micro-Devices-Inc-AMD-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-Advanced-Micro-Devices-Inc-AMD-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1607px) 100vw, 1607px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD) defied the bears with an 8.4% surge that challenged all-time highs. <\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"Bring on the bears. AT50 (MMFI) decisively sliced through the overbought threshold and ended a 29-day overbought period.\" class=\"wp-image-67303\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT50-MMFI.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT50-MMFI-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT50-MMFI-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT50-MMFI-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Bring on the bears. AT50 (MMFI) decisively sliced through the overbought threshold and ended a 29-day overbought period.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1607\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) filled a gap up from a month ago and created a topping formation.\" class=\"wp-image-67304\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT200-MMTH.png 1607w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT200-MMTH-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT200-MMTH-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/011624-AT200-MMTH-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1607px) 100vw, 1607px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) filled a gap up from a month ago and created a topping formation.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Day #47 over 20%, Day #45 over 30%, Day #43 over 40%, Day #42 over 50%, Day #39 over 60%, Day #1 under 70% (1st day under 70%, ending 29-day overbought period)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long ARKK, long IWM calendar put spread<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary Bring on the bears&#8230;The process terminating a historically extended overbought period started with the first trading day of the year. While the S&amp;P 500 recovered from the year&#8217;s initial fit of selling, small caps did not. The sagging fortunes of small caps have now returned the related ETF to bear market territory. &#8230; <a title=\"Bring on the Bears, Overbought Conditions End Decisively &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/16\/bring-on-bears-overbought-conditions-end-decisively-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66346,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,219,796,511,62,1304],"tags":[3110,1168,2981,2982,1820,2832,2201,2225,2218,909,413,65,362,2303],"class_list":["post-67306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breakdown","category-high-tech","category-semiconductors","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-top","tag-advanced-micro-devices-inc","tag-amd","tag-ark-innovation-etf","tag-arkk","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compq","tag-fed-fund-futures","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-trading-call-change"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bring on the Bears, Overbought Conditions End Decisively - The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bring on the bears\u2026The process terminating a historically extended overbought period started with the first trading day of the year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/16\/bring-on-bears-overbought-conditions-end-decisively-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bring on the Bears, Overbought Conditions End Decisively - The Market Breadth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bring on the bears\u2026The process terminating a historically extended overbought period started with the first trading day of the year.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/16\/bring-on-bears-overbought-conditions-end-decisively-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-01-17T06:54:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-17T06:56:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/bears-intrude-on-oversold-conditions.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2048\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1536\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Bring on the Bears, Overbought Conditions End Decisively - The Market Breadth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Bring on the bears\u2026The process terminating a historically extended overbought period started with the first trading day of the year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/bears-intrude-on-oversold-conditions.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2024\\\/01\\\/16\\\/bring-on-bears-overbought-conditions-end-decisively-the-market-breadth\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2024\\\/01\\\/16\\\/bring-on-bears-overbought-conditions-end-decisively-the-market-breadth\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"headline\":\"Bring on the Bears, Overbought Conditions End Decisively &#8211; 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