{"id":67189,"date":"2024-01-06T22:16:40","date_gmt":"2024-01-07T06:16:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=67189"},"modified":"2024-01-08T19:46:28","modified_gmt":"2024-01-09T03:46:28","slug":"overbought-conditions-in-peril-as-new-year-weakness-continues-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/06\/overbought-conditions-in-peril-as-new-year-weakness-continues-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Overbought Conditions In Peril As New Year Weakness Continues &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As new year weakness continues in the stock market, a serious tension has emerged in the message of the market <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/04\/profit-taking-or-a-top-an-overbought-market-roundtrips-the-market-breadth\/\">between profit-taking versus a sustained top<\/a>. An extended overbought period raises the stakes for the resolution of this tension. As long as the stock market remains overbought, I will assume the current selling is a garden variety pullback that is delivering a much-needed cooling period&#8230;and select buying opportunities. However, once the overbought period ends, buyers will need to step in with force to prevent bearish trading conditions from completing a takeover of the trading action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) ended a 4-day slide with a feeble 0.2% gain on Friday. The index faded from its highs in a move that held out the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dashed line) as resistance. On the other hand, the S&amp;P 500 is clinging to presumed support from the last low in December where <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/12\/23\/extended-overbought-rally-quickly-overcomes-third-strike-the-market-breadth\/\">I called a third strike against the rally<\/a>. As a result, if buyers do not start the coming week on a strong note, the S&amp;P 500 looks set up to finish reversing its December breakout at the same time it hits the lower Bollinger Band (BB) (the curving, solid black line). I have an SPY $475 monthly calendar call spread hanging in the balance.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) started the year with a decline below the 20-day moving average (20DMA), a breakdown last seen in October.\" class=\"wp-image-67176\" style=\"width:840px;height:419px\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-SP-500-SPY.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-SP-500-SPY-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-SP-500-SPY-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-SP-500-SPY-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) started the year with a decline below the 20-day moving average (20DMA), a breakdown last seen in October.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) has already reversed its December breakout. The tech laden index ended a 5-day slide with a meager 0.1% gain. Unless buyers start the coming week strong, the NASDAQ looks set up to test its 50DMA (the red line) in short order.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) rapidly declined under the 20DMA before increasing by a measly 0.1%. The NASDAQ has nearly reversed all of December's breakout.\" class=\"wp-image-67177\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) rapidly declined under the 20DMA before increasing by a measly 0.1%. The NASDAQ has nearly reversed all of December&#8217;s breakout.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is back in a bear market. This drop is the biggest setback of the short year so far. The ETF of small caps is on a 6-day slide. This weakness alone puts the overbought period in peril. The selling pressure looks strong enough to push IWM into a test of 50DMA support which would also reverse the big surge in mid-December. That surge challenged resistance at the time from the bear market line. I have the long side of a calendar call spread hanging in the wobbly balance (weekly IWM $199 call).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-67178\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) started the year with a fast decline and dip under the bear market line.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call As Weakness Continues<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 76.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (24th overbought day)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 62.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, closed at 76.4% for a 24th straight day in overbought territory. This extended overbought rally crossed a crucial juncture. At the same time weakness continues, the historical record suggests that this overbought period will end with the S&amp;P registering a gain for the period. The S&amp;P 500 is currently up 2.2% since <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/12\/02\/buyers-get-a-hit-and-dash-into-overbought-conditions-the-market-breadth\/\">flipping overbought on December 1st<\/a>. If the overbought period ended right now, the index would slightly underperform expectations (the green line in the chart below). Thus, a further decline from here would cause even more underperformance. One potential scenario consistent with history is a wider performance divergence between the S&amp;P 500 (flat or up) and IWM (down). [AT200 (MMTH), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, continues to support the bullish case although this indicator of longer-term market breadth is off its primary uptrend].<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"660\" height=\"446\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/201223_SP500-Performance-Overbought.jpg\" alt=\"Performance of the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) After An Overbought Period Ends\" class=\"wp-image-55506\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Performance of the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) After An Overbought Period Ends<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>My short-term trading call remains at neutral as I see both bearish and bullish signals in this extended overbought rally. Last week I took note of potential bottoms in select downtrends. Thanks to swingtradebot, I surfaced potentially bottoming &#8220;dojis.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Dojis to Rescue Stocks? Looking for Relief from 2024&#039;s Rough Start. #technicalanalysis #stockmarket\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1WD14ng733A?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Cybersecurity software company Qualys, Inc (QLYS) typifies the losers for 2024. Selling that began at the end of last year became relentless this year. QLYS closed the week 12.4% below its all-time high and slightly below 50DMA support. If sellers press the issue for a confirmed 50DMA breakdown, the next &#8220;natural&#8221; support sits at the top of the stock&#8217;s first day post-earnings surge on November 3rd (look at the first &#8220;E&#8221; from starting from the left of the horizontal axis).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Qualys-Inc-QLYS.png\" alt=\"Qualys Inc (QLYS) continued its steady decline as it broke well below the 20DMA and hit the 50DMA.\" class=\"wp-image-67179\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Qualys Inc (QLYS)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Qualys-Inc-QLYS.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Qualys-Inc-QLYS-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Qualys-Inc-QLYS-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Qualys-Inc-QLYS-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Qualys Inc (QLYS) continued its steady decline as it broke well below the 20DMA and hit the 50DMA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Adobe Inc (ADBE) has already suffered a confirmed 50DMA breakdown. A 6.4% post-earnings loss last month started the current bout of weakness. ADBE ended the week right at the top of last year&#8217;s double all-time high. If buyers fail to step up here, ADBE is set up to test the bottom of the last trading range around $500. I bought a weekly $560\/$545 put spread in case a further slide is in store for ADBE in the coming week. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1608\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Adobe-Inc-ADBE.png\" alt=\"Adobe Inc (ADBE) broke down below the 50DMA and hugged the lower bollinger band.\" class=\"wp-image-67180\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Adobe Inc (ADBE)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Adobe-Inc-ADBE.png 1608w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Adobe-Inc-ADBE-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Adobe-Inc-ADBE-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Adobe-Inc-ADBE-1320x653.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1608px) 100vw, 1608px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Adobe Inc (ADBE) broke down below the 50DMA and hugged the lower bollinger band.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Amazon.com (AMZN) is trying to hold the line against on-going weakness at its 50DMA support. AMZN also happened to close right at last year&#8217;s former high from September. If buyers fail to step up, AMZN could fall a LOT further. Thus, the technicals here will be a key tell and critical to watch!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN.png\" alt=\"Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) is struggling to cling to 50DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-67181\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) is struggling to cling to 50DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) startled me at the end of last year by almost reaching its all-time high. RCL started 2024 with a huge drawdown of 7.2% that appeared to engrave a lasting top in the stock. However, buyers stepped into RCL the last two days before the stock tested any natural lines of support. This outperformance surprised me. A reversal of the year&#8217;s first day loss would be a very bullish event for RCL and the consumer discretionary space in general.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Royal-Caribbean-Cruises-Ltd-RCL-1.png\" alt=\"Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) reached back up to the 20DMA after breaking down below it a few days prior.\" class=\"wp-image-67183\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Royal-Caribbean-Cruises-Ltd-RCL-1.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Royal-Caribbean-Cruises-Ltd-RCL-1-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Royal-Caribbean-Cruises-Ltd-RCL-1-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Royal-Caribbean-Cruises-Ltd-RCL-1-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) reached back up to the 20DMA after breaking down below it a few days prior.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>A friend convinced me to speculate in biotech stock Esperion Therapeutics, Inc (ESPR). I liked the technical and fundamental setup. On the technical side, ESPR made a clean breakout on December 14th after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esperion.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/us-fda-updates-ldl-c-lowering-indication-esperions-nexletolr\">key drug news<\/a>: &#8220;U.S. FDA Updates LDL-C Lowering Indication for Esperion\u2019s NEXLETOL\u00ae (bempedoic acid) Tablet and NEXLIZET\u00ae (bempedoic acid and ezetimibe) Tablet.&#8221; The stock was able to ride the general market&#8217;s speculative flurry to just keep running higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Almost prophetically, I told my friend at the end of last year that my trader intuition was telling me to take profits. I suppressed the urge because an enduring fundamental play was the presumed positive resolution to a $300M dispute with partner Daiichi Sankyo Europe. Abruptly, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esperion.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/esperion-and-daiichi-sankyo-europe-announce-125-million\">the companies settled on a $125M payment<\/a>, and ESPR promptly sold on the news. The 21.2% plunge took me right back to my starting point. Fortunately, the technicals emerged once again with buyers defending 20DMA support. I added to shares on Friday&#8217;s post-news high; the move looks like it is confirming a recovery from an overdone sell-off. ESPR now looks set up again to resume its recovery from last March&#8217;s 54.2% collapse as, hopefully, good news returns to the company. Stay tuned!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1608\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Esperion-Therapeutics-Inc-ESPR.png\" alt=\"Esperion Therapeutics Inc (ESPR) stopped hugging its upper Bollinger Band after a plunge tested 20DMA support on news of a settlement with Daiichi Sankyo.\" class=\"wp-image-67184\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Esperion Therapeutics Inc (ESPR)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Esperion-Therapeutics-Inc-ESPR.png 1608w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Esperion-Therapeutics-Inc-ESPR-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Esperion-Therapeutics-Inc-ESPR-1536x757.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Esperion-Therapeutics-Inc-ESPR-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1608px) 100vw, 1608px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Esperion Therapeutics Inc (ESPR) stopped hugging its upper Bollinger Band after a plunge tested 20DMA support on news of a settlement with Daiichi Sankyo.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>British fintech company Endava plc (DAVA) was not immune from the selling in the U.S. Yet DAVA ended Friday with a promising defense of uptrending 20DMA support. I bought shares assuming the rally is ready to resume. Like so many software companies of its ilk, DAVA is down significantly from its manic pandemic highs. DAVA printed an ominous double-top across November and December 2021 above $170.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1608\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Endava-PLC-DAVA.png\" alt=\"Endava PLC (DAVA) confirmed 20DMA support after testing this support for the first time in a month.\" class=\"wp-image-67185\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Endava PLC (DAVA)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Endava-PLC-DAVA.png 1608w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Endava-PLC-DAVA-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Endava-PLC-DAVA-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-Endava-PLC-DAVA-1320x653.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1608px) 100vw, 1608px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Endava PLC (DAVA) confirmed 20DMA support after testing this support for the first time in a month.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) started the year poorly with an on-going decline toward the overbought line.\" class=\"wp-image-67186\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT50-MMFI.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT50-MMFI-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT50-MMFI-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT50-MMFI-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) started the year poorly with an on-going decline toward the overbought line.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"The AT200 (MMTH) concluded its primary ascent and is now descending towards the high it reached in August.\" class=\"wp-image-67187\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT200-MMTH.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT200-MMTH-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT200-MMTH-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/010624-AT200-MMTH-1320x649.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The AT200 (MMTH) concluded its primary ascent and is now descending towards the high it reached in August.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Day #41 over 20%, Day #39 over 30%, Day #37 over 40%, Day #36 over 50%, Day #33 over 60%, Day #23 over 70% (24th day overbought)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long ADBE put spread, long ESPR, long IWM call, long SPY calendar call spread<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary As new year weakness continues in the stock market, a serious tension has emerged in the message of the market between profit-taking versus a sustained top. An extended overbought period raises the stakes for the resolution of this tension. As long as the stock market remains overbought, I will assume the current &#8230; <a title=\"Overbought Conditions In Peril As New Year Weakness Continues &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2024\/01\/06\/overbought-conditions-in-peril-as-new-year-weakness-continues-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":67198,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,300,219,599,490,1311,511,62,1633],"tags":[428,3401,3402,398,1820,2832,2201,3399,3404,3403,3398,2218,909,413,1292,3400,2054,3390,65,362],"class_list":["post-67189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-health-care","category-high-tech","category-internet","category-overbought","category-software","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-travel","tag-adbe","tag-adobe-inc","tag-amazon-com-inc","tag-amzn","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compq","tag-dava","tag-endava-plc","tag-esperion-therapeutics-inc","tag-espr","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-qlys","tag-qualys-inc","tag-rcl","tag-royal-caribbean-cruises-ltd","tag-sp-500","tag-spy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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