{"id":66877,"date":"2023-12-12T20:12:10","date_gmt":"2023-12-13T04:12:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=66877"},"modified":"2023-12-13T12:57:41","modified_gmt":"2023-12-13T20:57:41","slug":"is-beyond-meat-speculative-trade-of-new-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/12\/12\/is-beyond-meat-speculative-trade-of-new-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Beyond Meat THE Speculative Trade of the New Year?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I have been a long-time skeptic of Beyond Meat (BYND) but a technical turn of events attracted me to a potential speculative trade in the stock. Combining a positive post-earnings reaction, a confirmed breakout, and today&#8217;s push higher above a consolidation period, BYND took on the look of a stock that can run at least through January. BYND may not be THE speculative trade for the next 6 weeks or so, but it will top MY list (unless it invalidates the technical signals). I made the case in <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/XmTT1Iky5_o?si=5rDEKNgDiFnAn2Jt\">the video<\/a> posted below. For readers, I provided a bulleted summary of the transcript (with an assist from ChatGPT). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Introduction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I have had a long-standing negative view on Beyond Meat<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>My perspective changed given the technical setup<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Historical Performance and Speculative Bubble<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BYND was a classically overhyped pandemic play.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BYND experienced a significant run-up post-IPO, coinciding with speculative market fervor.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The stock topped quickly but sustained a trading range thanks to an expert press release machine that kept hyping up promise and potential.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>After the trading range gave way, BYND practically plunged straight down.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BYND showed resilience in the last post-earnings reaction<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A key technical indicator is the ability to break out above the 50-day moving average (DMA) and maintain a second higher close.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The on-going downtrend forced prior 50DMA breakouts into short-lived affairs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The January Effect<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BYND is a candidate for the &#8216;January Effect&#8217;, where stocks rebound after year-end sell-offs for tax purposes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I am encouraged by the current 6% stock increase and the breakout above consolidation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Peer Comparison<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Beyond Meat&#8217;s price-to-sales ratio is probably attractive to long-term investors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I compared BYND to Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) and Campbell Soup Company (CPB) given Beyond Meat&#8217;s valuation is approaching that of its peers (as it should).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There is still a premium in Beyond Meat\u2019s stock, indicating lingering belief in the growth potential.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Short Selling As An Additional Catalyst<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Greedy bears! An extremely high percentage (46%) of Beyond Meat&#8217;s float is sold short, which could fuel future price increases as shorts close up shop.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This extreme short position is a potential additional catalyst for the case on BYND (although not a necessary catalyst).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Managing the Risk of A Speculative Trade in BYND<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I am targeting a rally that fills the post-earnings gap from August.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I am willing to accumulate shares down to a test of 20DMA support, with a stop-loss below the 50-day moving average.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This case for a speculative trade is not a recommendation for anyone to do anything. Traders should do their own homework and make their own decisions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I want to hear feedback. Does this setup make sense? What is missing?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Is Beyond Meat (#BYND) THE Speculative Trade for the New Year?! #stockmarket\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XmTT1Iky5_o?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long BYND, long HRL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary I have been a long-time skeptic of Beyond Meat (BYND) but a technical turn of events attracted me to a potential speculative trade in the stock. Combining a positive post-earnings reaction, a confirmed breakout, and today&#8217;s push higher above a consolidation period, BYND took on the look of a stock that can &#8230; <a title=\"Is Beyond Meat THE Speculative Trade of the New Year?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/12\/12\/is-beyond-meat-speculative-trade-of-new-year\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66878,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,1129,338,62,1210],"tags":[2371,2274,3088,2297],"class_list":["post-66877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breakout","category-food-retail","category-retail","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-model","tag-beyond-meat","tag-bynd","tag-hormel-foods-corporation","tag-january-effect"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is Beyond Meat THE Speculative Trade of the New Year? 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