{"id":66787,"date":"2023-12-07T00:58:56","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T08:58:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=66787"},"modified":"2023-12-08T18:01:44","modified_gmt":"2023-12-09T02:01:44","slug":"appreciating-yen-is-rallys-second-strike-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/12\/07\/appreciating-yen-is-rallys-second-strike-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"An Appreciating Yen Is the Rally&#8217;s Second Strike &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Technical underpinnings are changing fast in the stock market. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/11\/29\/first-strike-against-rally-the-market-breadth\/\">The first strike against the rally<\/a> came in the form of initial struggles to break into overbought territory. A second strike has now emerged in the form of an appreciating Japanese yen (FXY). To the extent carry trades &#8211; borrowing cheap yen to buy risk assets &#8211; has helped support the rally, the steady appreciation of the yen threatens to take the top of the market. A third strike against the market will essentially pave the way for a bearish tone in the stock market. Friday&#8217;s jobs report for November looms over the key overbought threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) ended last week with a promising breakout and marginal 20-month closing high. However, a gap down on Monday instantly reversed <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/12\/02\/buyers-get-a-hit-and-dash-into-overbought-conditions-the-market-breadth\/\">Friday&#8217;s gains<\/a>. Wednesday&#8217;s 0.4% loss signals a potential top at resistance from the 2023 high set over the summer.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_SPY-SP-500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_SPY-SP-500.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) suddenly looks like it is meeting resistance at its summer highs.\" class=\"wp-image-66790\" style=\"width:840px;height:419px\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_SPY-SP-500.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_SPY-SP-500-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_SPY-SP-500-1320x755.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) suddenly looks like it is meeting resistance at its summer highs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) looks even more stalled than the S&amp;P 500. The tech-laden index is clinging to support at its 20-day moving average (DMA) as a last gasp to maintain a bullish posture. A 20DMA breakdown will effectively confirm resistance at the year&#8217;s high set in July.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1479\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) is clinging to support at its 20DMA for a chance to invalidate resistance at the 2023 highs.\" class=\"wp-image-66791\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png 1479w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_COMPQ-NASDAQ-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_COMPQ-NASDAQ-1320x756.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1479px) 100vw, 1479px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) is clinging to support at its 20DMA for a chance to invalidate resistance at the 2023 highs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) outperformed the major indices again by starting the week with a solid 1.1% gain. However, two days of subsequent selling and a sharp fade from intraday highs puts the ETF of small caps in a precarious position. Suddenly, last Friday&#8217;s surge looks vulnerable to a reversal. Still, I nibbled on a fresh IWM calendar call in case buyers move counter to the growing bearish signals in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) may have lost the will to challenge its bear market line of resistance.\" class=\"wp-image-66792\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-1320x755.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) may have lost the will to challenge its bear market line of resistance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With A Second Strike<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 71.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (4th overbought day)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 51.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, floats precariously above the overbought threshold of 70%. IWM&#8217;s Monday gain helped push my favorite technical indicator marginally higher, but now AT50 has little support. With an appreciating yen delivering a second strike against the market rally, a close below the overbought threshold will flip me &#8220;cautiously&#8221; bearish on the stock market. I will not even wait for a confirming second close lower. As a reminder, such a switch will not come with dire expectations. I may not even short much beyond a few put options. Instead, I will eagerly await the next buy signal. I paved the path by taking profits on almost all my standing short-term trades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen (AUD\/JPY) topped out at a fresh high for the year last month. Now it is plunging fast and hard as the yen appreciates and surges. The move looks overdone, so rolled into a position for a potential short-term bounce back to 50DMA resistance. Otherwise, the market could be in for rapid trouble. As a reminder, AUD\/JPY matters to traders even though this year&#8217;s correlations have not worked well (see &#8220;Why the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen Matter for Stock Traders&#8221;).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AUDJPY-Australian-dollar-vs-Japanese-yen.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar vs Japanese yen (AUD\/JPY) suffered an ominous 50DMA breakdown as the yen appreciates against all major currencies.\" class=\"wp-image-66793\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"Australian dollar vs Japanese yen (AUD\/JPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AUDJPY-Australian-dollar-vs-Japanese-yen.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AUDJPY-Australian-dollar-vs-Japanese-yen-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AUDJPY-Australian-dollar-vs-Japanese-yen-1320x755.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The Australian dollar vs Japanese yen (AUD\/JPY) suffered an ominous 50DMA breakdown as the yen appreciates against all major currencies.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) is hovering precariously above the overbought threshold!\" class=\"wp-image-66795\" style=\"width:840px;height:423px\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AT50-MMFI.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AT50-MMFI-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AT50-MMFI-1320x755.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) is hovering precariously above the overbought threshold!<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) has stalled but remains in an uptrend from the oversold lows.\" class=\"wp-image-66796\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AT200-MMTH.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AT200-MMTH-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/20231206_AT200-MMTH-1320x755.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) has stalled but remains in an uptrend from the oversold lows.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Day #21 over 20%, Day #19 over 30%, Day #17 over 40%, Day #16 over 50%, Day #13 over 60%, Day #4 over 70% (4th day overbought)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long AUD\/JPY, long IWM calendar call spread<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary Technical underpinnings are changing fast in the stock market. The first strike against the rally came in the form of initial struggles to break into overbought territory. A second strike has now emerged in the form of an appreciating Japanese yen (FXY). To the extent carry trades &#8211; borrowing cheap yen to &#8230; <a title=\"An Appreciating Yen Is the Rally&#8217;s Second Strike &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/12\/07\/appreciating-yen-is-rallys-second-strike-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,20,511,1154,62,1304],"tags":[1820,3380,772,2201,2218,138,413,65,362],"class_list":["post-66787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breakdown","category-forex","category-support","category-t2108-model","category-technical-analysis","category-top","tag-at200","tag-at500","tag-audjpy","tag-compq","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-japanese-yen","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>An Appreciating Yen Is the Rally&#039;s Second Strike - The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Technical underpinnings are changing fast in the stock market. 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