{"id":66016,"date":"2023-09-28T00:16:18","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T07:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=66016"},"modified":"2023-09-28T00:16:19","modified_gmt":"2023-09-28T07:16:19","slug":"oversold-bounce-sends-signs-of-life-for-stocks-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/09\/28\/oversold-bounce-sends-signs-of-life-for-stocks-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Oversold Bounce Sends Signs of Life for Stocks &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Get used to the sentiment shifts. One day the stock market went <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/09\/26\/oversold-and-over-hard-the-market-breadth\/\">oversold and over hard<\/a>. The next day, an oversold bounce shows signs of life for stocks. In particular a classic bottoming signal came in the form of the &#8220;hammer&#8221; candlestick. Together, the bounce from oversold territory and the bottoming hammer candlestick, create a powerful tailwind for a short-term bullish narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) almost confirmed a breakdown below its support from last year&#8217;s pre Jackson Hole high. Buyers came to the rescue with an intraday bounce strong enough to form a hammer candlestick. This pattern signals the potential end of a downtrend in price. These signs of life are coming just in time as the index closes in on critical support at the converging 200-day moving average (DMA) (the bluish line below) and the price level that launched <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/06\/14\/fed-avoids-ending-the-summer-of-loving-stocks\/\">the summer of loving stocks<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_SPY-SP500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_SPY-SP500.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) rebounded from over-stretched conditions toward key support. The signs of life formed a bottoming hammer pattern.\" class=\"wp-image-66027\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_SPY-SP500.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_SPY-SP500-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_SPY-SP500-1320x755.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) rebounded from over-stretched conditions toward key support. The signs of life formed a bottoming hammer pattern.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) got precariously close to its bear market line at the day&#8217;s lows. Buyers saved the day and rallied the tech laden index to a 0.2% gain on the day. The fade from the intraday high did not allow the NASDAQ to qualify for hammer status. Note carefully how the March intraday low and the pre Jackson Hole high from 2022 are forming potential resistance to a continuation of an oversold bounce.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1479\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) showed signs of life with a 0.2% gain and recovery from intraday lows.\" class=\"wp-image-66026\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_COMPQ-NASDAQ.png 1479w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_COMPQ-NASDAQ-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_COMPQ-NASDAQ-1320x756.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1479px) 100vw, 1479px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) showed signs of life with a 0.2% gain and recovery from intraday lows.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) inexplicably out-performed on the day with a 0.9% gain. The gap up at the open trapped some bears that over-extended themselves on the previous day&#8217;s over-stretched selling.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_IWM-iSharesRussell-2000-ETF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_IWM-iSharesRussell-2000-ETF.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gapped higher at the open and trapped some bears. The signs of life were strong enough to close with a 0.9% gain on the day.\" class=\"wp-image-66025\" style=\"width:840px;height:421px\" width=\"840\" height=\"421\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gapped higher at the open and trapped some bears. The signs of life were strong enough to close with a 0.9% gain on the day.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With Signs of Life<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 21.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (ending a 1-day oversold period)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 36.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, rebounded from oversold trading conditions. My favorite technical indicator ended the oversold period at 1 day in duration. While <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">the majority of oversold periods last just one or two days<\/a>, I am not ready to believe that the pain of September&#8217;s selling has just ended in one cathartic plunge into oversold territory and a bottoming hammer pattern. Of course, since my short-term trading call is now bullish, I will not complain if we look back to see how these powerful signs of life carved out a sustained bottom!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) gives me a reason or wariness. One of America&#8217;s favorite stocks under-performed the stock market with a 0.9% loss. AAPL even looks ready to test its 200DMA support. I assume the good news here is that such a test in oversold conditions should produce very high odds for a sustained bounce.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_AAPL-Apple-Inc.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_AAPL-Apple-Inc.png\" alt=\"Apple Inc (AAPL) showed no signs of life as it under-performed the market with a 0.9% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-66022\" title=\"Apple Inc (AAPL)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_AAPL-Apple-Inc.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_AAPL-Apple-Inc-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_AAPL-Apple-Inc-1320x755.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Apple Inc (AAPL) showed no signs of life as it under-performed the market with a 0.9% loss.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>While I am looking for stocks that conquered 50DMA resistance (the red line) or held 50DMA support, there are some interesting stocks toying with 200DMA support. Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) has spent the last 5 trading days toying with 200DMA support while never closing below. Today&#8217;s 2.2% gain makes <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/05\/25\/running-with-picks-and-shovels-in-generative-ai-race\/\">this generative AI play<\/a> look ready to at least bounce back to the top of its down-trending channel.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_AMD-Advanced-Micro-Devices.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_AMD-Advanced-Micro-Devices.png\" alt=\"Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is clinging to signs of life at its 200DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-66021\" style=\"width:840px;height:421px\" width=\"840\" height=\"421\" title=\"Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is clinging to signs of life at its 200DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The speculative ARK funds have taken outsized hits the past two months. Higher rates are killers for Cathie Wood&#8217;s investment strategy and each of the ARK funds shows the scars. ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) has given up all its gains from the May breakout. Yet, ARKW is clinging to signs of life at its 200DMA. I am a buyer here with a tight stop and a quick trigger to profit on a rally to resistance, say, at the 20DMA (the dotted line below).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_ARKW-ARK-Next-Generation-Internet-ETF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_ARKW-ARK-Next-Generation-Internet-ETF.png\" alt=\"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) clings to signs of life at its 200DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-66020\" style=\"width:840px;height:421px\" width=\"840\" height=\"421\" title=\"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) clings to signs of life at its 200DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) shined for a brief moment this summer. The breakout had all the makings of a continuing recovery. Instead, ARKG was slammed with the rest of the market these past two months and is right back to the lows of the year. This potential support is the only reason to speculate in ARKG. I am a buyer at the next sign of higher buying interest. Note well that the pandemic low is not far away!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_ARKG-ARK-Genomic-Revolution-ETF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_ARKG-ARK-Genomic-Revolution-ETF.png\" alt=\"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) has limped its way toward its pandemic low after the pre-pandemic high delivered a top to an extended trading range.\" class=\"wp-image-66019\" style=\"width:840px;height:421px\" width=\"840\" height=\"421\" title=\"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) has limped its way toward its pandemic low after the pre-pandemic high delivered a top to an extended trading range.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>I recorded a &#8220;show and tell&#8221; video for other ideas on trading this potentially powerful moment combining oversold conditions with a bottoming hammer. As usual, I used <a href=\"https:\/\/swingtradebot.com\/\">swingtradebot<\/a> as the stock scanning platform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Trade School: Using Swingtradebot to Find Stocks Potentially Starting An Oversold Bounce\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/o-Ncy81ZvW4?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_MMFI-AT50.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_MMFI-AT50.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) shot right out of oversold conditions with big signs of life.\" class=\"wp-image-66024\" style=\"width:840px;height:423px\" width=\"840\" height=\"423\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) shot right out of oversold conditions with big signs of life.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_MMTH-AT200.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_MMTH-AT200.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) bounced off support at a 9-month low.\" class=\"wp-image-66023\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_MMTH-AT200.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_MMTH-AT200-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/20230927_MMTH-AT200-1320x755.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) bounced off support at a 9-month low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Day #1 over 20% (overperiod ended 1 day oversold), Day #7 under 30%, Day #17 under 40%, Day #31 under 50%, Day #36 under 60%, Day #39 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long IWM calls, long S&amp;P 500 call spread and call<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary Get used to the sentiment shifts. One day the stock market went oversold and over hard. The next day, an oversold bounce shows signs of life for stocks. In particular a classic bottoming signal came in the form of the &#8220;hammer&#8221; candlestick. Together, the bounce from oversold territory and the bottoming hammer &#8230; <a title=\"Oversold Bounce Sends Signs of Life for Stocks &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/09\/28\/oversold-bounce-sends-signs-of-life-for-stocks-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66017,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1303,300,219,599,512,796,511,62],"tags":[250,3110,1168,534,3017,3008,3093,3009,2832,2201,2218,909,413,65,362],"class_list":["post-66016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bottom","category-health-care","category-high-tech","category-internet","category-resistance","category-semiconductors","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-advanced-micro-devices-inc","tag-amd","tag-apple-inc","tag-ark-genomic-revolution-etf","tag-ark-next-generation-internet-etf","tag-arkg","tag-arkw","tag-at50","tag-compq","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oversold Bounce Sends Signs of Life for Stocks - The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"An oversold bounce showed signs of life for stocks. 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