{"id":65348,"date":"2023-07-29T16:39:47","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T23:39:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=65348"},"modified":"2023-07-29T17:08:12","modified_gmt":"2023-07-30T00:08:12","slug":"buyers-push-against-topping-indices-restart-overbought-conditions-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/07\/29\/buyers-push-against-topping-indices-restart-overbought-conditions-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Buyers Push Against Topping Indices, Restart Overbought Conditions &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock market delivered a gift on Friday as I scrambled to de-risk following the Bank of Japan&#8217;s drama on monetary policy. I braced for selling into bearish pressure and instead was pleasantly greeted by a broad push higher for stocks from the open. After the dust settled on the day, I finished climbing down from my aggressively bullish perch and rested on a pillow that will allow me to sleep at night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market breadth returned to overbought trading conditions as buyers made their push to invalidate <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/07\/28\/overbought-trading-ends-with-japans-monetary-drama-carving-topping-patterns-in-stocks-the-market-breadth\/\">the topping patterns that appeared just a day before<\/a>. Some important sector ETFs like semiconductors and home builders promptly returned to all-time highs. The remarkable turn-around spoke volumes about the initial over-reaction to the potential change in monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. The actual policy, and then, presumably, a favorable inflation print from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2023\/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the June Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report<\/a>, reinvigorated buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders could see the coming rebound as I wrote in the last &#8220;Market Breadth&#8221; post showing AUD\/JPY (the Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen) was on the rebound. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/asia\/bank-japans-opaque-policy-shift-means-stronger-wilder-yen-2023-07-28\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Per Reuters<\/a>, the yen drama is far from over. We will likely look back at this moment as the week that the yen (FXY) finally began a process of bottoming out. If so, the stock market will need different fuel than the carry trade to continue higher. This is an important wildcard to consider as the stock market heads into <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/09\/11\/how-to-trade-during-the-stock-markets-most-dangerous-months\/\">its most dangerous three months of the year<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) gained 1.0% for the week. The persistent uptrend, still defined by the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line below), was sharply interrupted by the drama over the Bank of Japan&#8217;s monetary policy. Friday&#8217;s gap higher and 1.0% rebound defined all the gains for the week as buyers push against the bearish engulfing pattern that holds as a top for the index for now.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"809\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) rebounded 1.0% but did not quite invalidate the bearish engulfing topping pattern.\" class=\"wp-image-65316\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-SP-500-SPY.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-SP-500-SPY-768x386.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-SP-500-SPY-1536x771.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-SP-500-SPY-1320x663.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) rebounded 1.0% but did not quite invalidate the bearish engulfing topping pattern.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) also gapped higher. Also like the S&amp;P 500, the tech-laden index scored almost all its gains for the week with Friday&#8217;s 1.9% surge. The NASDAQ&#8217;s topping pattern barely remains in place as Friday&#8217;s sharp rebound also confirmed the 20DMA as support.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"806\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) rushed right back to the previous day's intraday high. The NASDAQ is a 1-day rally away from invalidating its topping pattern.\" class=\"wp-image-65317\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1536x768.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1320x660.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) rushed right back to the previous day&#8217;s intraday high. The NASDAQ is a 1-day rally away from invalidating its topping pattern.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gapped higher along with the other major indices. The ETF of small caps is playing for even higher stakes. IWM is struggling to separate itself from a bear market. The 1.3% gain on the day saved IWM from confirming a bear market restart, but IWM now remains stuck churning below key resistance from the February high.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-2.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rebounded away from a resumption of its bear market with a 1.3% gain.\" class=\"wp-image-65320\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-2.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-2-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-2-1536x770.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-2-1320x662.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rebounded away from a resumption of its bear market with a 1.3% gain.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call with A Push Against Topping<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 71.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (day #3 overbought)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 59.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, reentered overbought trading conditions with a close at 71.9%. However, a subtle downtrend remains in place for my favorite technical indicator from the peak of the last overbought period. Accordingly, I am not nearly as optimistic I was at <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/07\/12\/bulls-win-big-overbought-conditions-return-the-market-breadth\/\">the start of the last overbought period<\/a>. I left the short-term trading call at neutral and do not anticipate becoming bullish again until the next sell-off to 50DMA support (the red line in the S&amp;P 500) and\/or the next oversold period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The main question is whether along the way I will ever dare to become bearish. I doubt it. The uptrends are simply too strong to want to bet against the market as a bear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These strong uptrends have important implications based on history. Yahoo Finance published a timely piece titled &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/what-historically-happens-after-stocks-soar-through-july-morning-brief-100029103.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">What historically happens after stocks soar through July<\/a>.&#8221; Here are the key performance points:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Looking at the six prior times the S&amp;P 500 was up five straight months in July, the return for the balance of the year was 8% on average with a 100% win rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Broadening out the analysis to include only those years when the January-through-July returns were 10% or more yields a more robust sample size of 21 instances going back to 1960.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These years return on average 4.8% from August to December with 95% of the results positive. (The only negative return was 1987, famous for its&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/b\/blackmonday.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Black Monday crash in October<\/a>.)&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>That last caveat is important because August through October are the stock market&#8217;s most dangerous months based on historical maximum drawdowns. The averages hide the volatility along the journey to gains. The coming period is typically a bad time to chase uptrends but a great time to trade and buy dips. Since I significantly reduced my risk profile, I feel well-positioned for this period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This particular earnings season is another reason for reducing risk profiles. Stocks that have significantly run up into this earnings season carry significant risk of disappointment. The large collection of stock charts below provides a sample of both the disappointments and the triumphs that have unfolded so far. There are warnings and promise in these charts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Music and podcast streaming service Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) was up an incredible 127.8% for the year at its pre-earnings peak. While SPOT is still a shadow of itself when it soared close to $400 intraday in 2021, this year&#8217;s rally still speaks to a high level of relative optimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That optimism was tested as the stock declined sharply into earnings. Those who heeded the warning were likely relieved after watching SPOT plunge 14.3% post-earnings. <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/3990621-spotify-slides-as-revenue-miss-margins-overshadow-strong-user-growth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">SPOT apparently disappointed revenue and margin expectations<\/a>; the downward revision to revenue guidance was minimal though. This 50DMA breakdown mark&#8217;s SPOT first close below its 50DMA all year. The move is bearish but sellers have not yet confirmed the breakdown with a lower close. I have no interest in shorting SPOT here, but I am a buyer on a recovery of the 50DMA as support.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Spotify-Technology-SA-SPOT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"808\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Spotify-Technology-SA-SPOT.png\" alt=\"Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) ended a parabolic move with a typical sell-off. The selling turned bearish with a post-earnings 50DMA breakdown.\" class=\"wp-image-65323\" title=\"Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Spotify-Technology-SA-SPOT.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Spotify-Technology-SA-SPOT-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Spotify-Technology-SA-SPOT-1536x769.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Spotify-Technology-SA-SPOT-1320x661.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) ended a parabolic move with a typical sell-off. The selling turned bearish with a post-earnings 50DMA breakdown.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>I am on the lookout for indicators of health for IT spending. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/07\/23\/now-overbought-summer-of-loving-stocks-stares-down-fed-the-market-breadth\/\">CDW Corporation (CDW) recovered all its post-earnings losses<\/a> but faces earnings again next week. Canadian IT services company CGI Inc. (GIB) added to the intrigue after falling 4.8% post-earnings. This loss provided follow-through selling to the 50DMA breakdown that served as a warning in the previous week. Still, sellers have yet to follow through on the post-earnings plunge. Note that ahead of earnings, <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/3989972-cgi-to-park-1b-for-expanding-ai-capabilities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">GIB announced a major investment in AI-related technology and services<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-CGI-Inc-GIB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-CGI-Inc-GIB.png\" alt=\"CGI Inc (GIB) confirmed a 50DMA breakdown with a 4.8% post-earnings loss.\" class=\"wp-image-65324\" title=\"CGI Inc (GIB)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-CGI-Inc-GIB.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-CGI-Inc-GIB-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-CGI-Inc-GIB-1536x770.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-CGI-Inc-GIB-1320x662.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>CGI Inc (GIB) confirmed a 50DMA breakdown with a 4.8% post-earnings loss.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Industrial equipment maker Terex Corporation (TEX) was flying high just two week ago. At the time, TEX traded at a 15-year high and was up 53.0% year-to-date. The subsequent sell-off featured 7 straight days of selling until Friday&#8217;s rebound away from 50DMA support. I am watching TEX closely to see whether the pre-earnings sell-off was indeed a warning or whether it turns out to be a buy-the-dip opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Terex-Corp-TEX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"806\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Terex-Corp-TEX.png\" alt=\"Terex Corp (TEX) has steadily sold off into a pre-earnings test of 50DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-65325\" title=\"Terex Corp (TEX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Terex-Corp-TEX.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Terex-Corp-TEX-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Terex-Corp-TEX-1536x769.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Terex-Corp-TEX-1320x661.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Terex Corp (TEX) has steadily sold off into a pre-earnings test of 50DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Vacant office buildings have been a hot topic since the onset of the pandemic. Work-from-home has persisted long after the pandemic ended and kept commercial real estate in freefall&#8230;until this spring. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Timed ironically for a bottom I wrote a piece 4 months ago titled &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/03\/27\/what-happened-when-i-asked-chatgpt-about-commercial-real-estate\/\">What Happened When I Asked ChatGPT About Commercial Real Estate<\/a>.&#8221; ChatGPT helped me identify commercial real estate plays that would likely struggle in a recession. I picked two for shorting (with put options): Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) and Boston Properties, Inc (BXP). I faded their subsequent rallies. When the positions turned profitable, I sat on them. These positions looked like perfect hedges against a potential economic calamity. Given the bottoming now underway for both VNO and BXP, I am left wondering whether instead of using these kinds of stocks as hedges it makes more sense to bet FOR a better economic future with them! <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both VNO and BXP are in bullish positions with 200DMA breakouts (above the blue lines). VNO is up a tantalizing 78.9% from its bottom in May. BXP bottomed in March and is up 39.2% since then. (Thank goodness for put options instead of shares short). Both stocks are roughly even for the year, so they are still severely under-performing the general stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Vornado-Realty-Trust-VNO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Vornado-Realty-Trust-VNO.png\" alt=\"Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) has ripped higher from a spring season double bottom. Will earnings validate the new optimism and confirmed 200DMA breakout?\" class=\"wp-image-65326\" title=\"Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Vornado-Realty-Trust-VNO.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Vornado-Realty-Trust-VNO-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Vornado-Realty-Trust-VNO-1536x769.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Vornado-Realty-Trust-VNO-1320x661.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) has ripped higher from a spring season double bottom. Will earnings validate the new optimism and confirmed 200DMA breakout?<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Boston-Properties-Inc-BXP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"809\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Boston-Properties-Inc-BXP.png\" alt=\"Boston Properties, Inc (BXP) is facing an earnings-driven test of its confirmed 200DMA breakout\" class=\"wp-image-65327\" title=\"Boston Properties, Inc (BXP)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Boston-Properties-Inc-BXP.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Boston-Properties-Inc-BXP-768x386.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Boston-Properties-Inc-BXP-1536x771.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Boston-Properties-Inc-BXP-1320x663.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Boston Properties, Inc (BXP) is facing an earnings-driven test of its confirmed 200DMA breakout<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Bloomberg did an interview with Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht about commercial real estate. The clip below includes his smug commentary on how a recession would push workers to return to the office. The implication is that the American refusal to return to the office is partly a result of a labor market that is &#8220;too good.&#8221; This narrative is yet one more reason why <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/07\/10\/why-wall-street-wants-a-recession\/\">Wall Street still wants a recession<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;The work from home phenomenon is a US phenomenon.&quot; <br><br>Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht says America&#39;s WFH policy is unique compared to other countries. Watch this episode of &quot;Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein&quot; here \ud83d\udc49 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1fPf5RF9tL\">https:\/\/t.co\/1fPf5RF9tL<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uQuEgcdlKX\">pic.twitter.com\/uQuEgcdlKX<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1685138077876891650?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 29, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A little over a year ago, <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/07\/07\/stock-chart-reviews-bear-market-green-shoots\/\">the bear market was starting its bottoming process with green shoots<\/a>. I looked across the fields and could not help seeing beaten up telehealth provider Teledoc Health, Inc (TDOC) as an enticing bottom-fishing play. The stock continued downward and gave me additional opportunities to buy cheaper stock. TDOC finally bottomed at the beginning of this year, but it has been stuck in an overall year-long trading range and consolidation period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week&#8217;s 27.0% post-earnings surge provided fresh hope that TDOC can eventually gather enough interest and momentum to break out. Last week&#8217;s 200DMA breakout still awaits confirmation. The confirmation will be important because TDOC has only closed above its 200DMA three times in the last 29 months; the previous two closes did not generate confirmations. For context, recall that TDOC is a sad shell of its former $300+ self.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"808\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC.png\" alt=\"Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC) closed above its 200DMA for only the third time in 29 months. The stock has yet to confirm any of the breakouts.\" class=\"wp-image-65328\" title=\"Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC-1536x770.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Teladoc-Health-Inc-TDOC-1320x662.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC) closed above its 200DMA for only the third time in 29 months. The stock has yet to confirm any of the breakouts.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>I continue to follow <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/05\/25\/running-with-picks-and-shovels-in-generative-ai-race\/\">the race for generative AI in the stock market<\/a>. I have focused on Alphabet (GOOG) as a &#8220;cheaper&#8221; play still weighed down by early PR missteps. As my strategy includes aggressive dip buying, I took a shot at playing for a positive post-earnings response. GOOG delivered with a 5.6% gain. I took profits in my call spread given it reached near maximum profits; I had little to gain and everything to risk by waiting around until this week&#8217;s coming expiration.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Alphabet-Inc-Class-C-GOOG.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"808\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Alphabet-Inc-Class-C-GOOG.png\" alt=\"Alphabet Inc (GOOG) enjoyed a post-earnings 5.6% jump and buyers remained resilient to the tune of fresh 15-month highs.\" class=\"wp-image-65329\" title=\"Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Alphabet-Inc-Class-C-GOOG.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Alphabet-Inc-Class-C-GOOG-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Alphabet-Inc-Class-C-GOOG-1536x770.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Alphabet-Inc-Class-C-GOOG-1320x662.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Alphabet Inc (GOOG) enjoyed a post-earnings 5.6% jump and buyers remained resilient to the tune of fresh 15-month highs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/07\/08\/bulls-fail-again-at-overbought-threshold-the-market-breadth\/\">My Prime Day trade<\/a> in Amazon.com (AMZN) worked out. However, AMZN did not rally into the marquee shopping event as I expected. The stock even punctured through 20DMA support along the way. I profited after the market actually bought the news of Prime Day&#8217;s performance. AMZN popped 2.7% on the day to a new multi-month high. After a marginal new high 4 trading days later, fresh selling pressure took AMZN under its uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock is flattening out going into next week&#8217;s earnings. Given the successful test of 50DMA support, I am expecting AMZN to make it through earnings OK&#8230;but I am not betting on this one. I am VERY tempted as the folks at CNBC&#8217;s Options Action are onto the same scent I sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Earnings upside ahead for <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24AMZN&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$AMZN<\/a>? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Michael_Khouw?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Michael_Khouw<\/a> lays out a bullish trade on the tech giant. <br><br>Plus, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CarterBWorth?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@CarterBWorth<\/a> charts the stock&#39;s trajectory, and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BrianStutland?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@BrianStutland<\/a> gives his take on what to look for in its earnings report next week. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Jr7lS9r6wF\">pic.twitter.com\/Jr7lS9r6wF<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Options Action (@OptionsAction) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/OptionsAction\/status\/1685043057073213442?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 28, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1614\" height=\"805\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN.png\" alt=\"Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN) topped out with a post Prime Day pop. A fresh challenge of highs is in the works after confirming 50DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-65330\" title=\"Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN.png 1614w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN-768x383.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN-1536x766.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Amazon.com-Inc-AMZN-1320x658.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1614px) 100vw, 1614px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN) topped out with a post Prime Day pop. A fresh challenge of highs is in the works after confirming 50DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Contract manufacturer Celestica, Inc (CLS) is an oldie but goodie that I found doing my stock chart scans in <a href=\"https:\/\/swingtradebot.com\">SwingTradeBot<\/a>. I decided to stick by the stock going into earnings given momentum and the 20DMA uptrend remained intact. CLS opened post-earnings with a 26% gain, but the day&#8217;s selling pressure weighed the stock down to a 9.4% gain. The fade made sense since the stock was so far extended above its upper Bollinger Band (BB). Once the stock gapped higher the next day, I decided to take profits as part of my de-risking. The wild trading action is what can come with a high-flyer that has become extremely stretched to the upside. CLS stays on my radar for buying dips.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Celestica-Inc-CLS.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Celestica-Inc-CLS.png\" alt=\"Celestica Inc (CLS) soared at one point 25.6% post-earnings but closed with a 9.4% gain. Buying resumed the next day with a gap up and 15.1% gain.\" class=\"wp-image-65331\" title=\"Celestica Inc (CLS)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Celestica-Inc-CLS.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Celestica-Inc-CLS-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Celestica-Inc-CLS-1536x770.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Celestica-Inc-CLS-1320x662.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Celestica Inc (CLS) soared at one point 25.6% post-earnings but closed with a 9.4% gain. Buying resumed the next day with a gap up and 15.1% gain.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>I recently <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/07\/22\/renaissance-ipo-etf-less-volatile-way-to-speculate-than-arkk\/\">examined the performance of ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) versus the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO)<\/a>. In writing that piece, I realized I needed a refresh on my ARK trading strategy. So I bought a covered call position. Roku Inc (ROKU) features prominently as a top holding in ARKK, and ROKU&#8217;s good fortune took me out of my position with a profit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The streaming device and service provider was a drag on performance going into earnings including a 4.6% loss ahead of earnings. The tide turned quickly on sellers as ROKU soared 31.4% post-earnings. The move helped punch ARKK 5.5% higher and above the $48 strike of my short call. Note well that, like ARKK itself, ROKU is another former high-flyer that is a shell of its former self. ROKU twice traded close to $500 in 2021. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Roku-Inc-ROKU.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"808\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Roku-Inc-ROKU.png\" alt=\"Roku Inc (ROKU) soared 31.4% post-earnings and closed with a 52-week high.\" class=\"wp-image-65332\" title=\"Roku Inc (ROKU)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Roku-Inc-ROKU.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Roku-Inc-ROKU-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Roku-Inc-ROKU-1536x771.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Roku-Inc-ROKU-1320x662.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Roku Inc (ROKU) soared 31.4% post-earnings and closed with a 52-week high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Readers know I prefer to trade Intel Corporation (INTC) between earnings. However, in retrospect, last week&#8217;s earnings was a trade I should have tried. INTC belongs to a small group of important tech stocks that are weighed down by heaps of skepticism and prior poor results. So the potential for upside surprise always exists in this new bull market. INTC survived a 50DMA test ahead of earnings and held 20DMA support. So I am not surprised by Friday&#8217;s 6.6% post-earnings surge. The stock is of course now over-extended well above its upper Bollinger Band (BB). It is buy the dip time again on INTC.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Intel-Corporation-INTC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Intel-Corporation-INTC.png\" alt=\"Faders failed to hold Intel Corporation (INTC) down. The stock closed near where it opened with a 6.6% post-earnings gain and near a 52-week high.\" class=\"wp-image-65333\" title=\"Intel Corporation (INTC)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Intel-Corporation-INTC.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Intel-Corporation-INTC-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Intel-Corporation-INTC-1536x770.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Intel-Corporation-INTC-1320x662.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Faders failed to hold Intel Corporation (INTC) down. The stock closed near where it opened with a 6.6% post-earnings gain and near a 52-week high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/06\/11\/looming-collision-between-overbought-trading-and-fed-the-market-breadth\/\">I lamented missing out on the breakout<\/a> in Carvana (CVNA) in early June when all the technical signals were lined up for a bullish run. I next never imagined that CVNA could double again from there. The move climaxed with a 40.2% post-earnings push that looked like an all-out buyer&#8217;s panic. That panic clearly sucked in all the remaining motivated buyers. From there, CVNA drifted lower and perfectly filled the gap. Friday&#8217;s gap higher away from uptrending 20DMA support looks like the start of a new push higher. CVNA is a buy on a higher close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the meantime, I took profits on the Cargurus Inc (CARG) position that I opened as a &#8220;consolation&#8221; sympathy trade with CVNA. The stock followed its 20DMA uptrend in a very choppy fashion. So its break below support ahead of earnings told me to take profits as part of my many de-risking moves.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Carvana-Co-CVNA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Carvana-Co-CVNA.png\" alt=\"Carvana Co (CVNA) perfectly filled it post-earnings 40.2% gap. The day's 8.8% rebound sets up a fresh trade higher with a top below the gap.\" class=\"wp-image-65335\" title=\"Carvana Co (CVNA)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Carvana-Co-CVNA.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Carvana-Co-CVNA-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Carvana-Co-CVNA-1536x770.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Carvana-Co-CVNA-1320x662.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Carvana Co (CVNA) perfectly filled it post-earnings 40.2% gap. The day&#8217;s 8.8% rebound sets up a fresh trade higher with a top below the gap.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>In mid-May, <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/05\/12\/nasdaq-quietly-tries-to-wake-up-sleepy-market-the-market-breadth\/\">I lamented missing the entire rally<\/a> in First Solar (FSLR). So when the stock pulled back to its 50DMA from the excitement of an acquisition, I jumped into some shares. I did not even consider the prospect for a complete reversal of that over-reaction. The complete reversal and then some happened in late June. FSLR avoided a test of 200DMA support before a slow rebound unfolded. That rebound included an 8% up day that in turn get reversed on an intraday basis. So I was relieved to see buyers fight back after a 12.5% post-earnings open got faded all the way into negative territory. All this chop tells me eager sellers continue to hold FSLR shares; I will need to patiently wait out their exhaustion.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-First-Solar-Inc-FSLR.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"806\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-First-Solar-Inc-FSLR.png\" alt=\"First Solar Inc (FSLR) suffered through a wild post-earnings day: a 12.5% open faded to an intraday loss and then a rebound to a 4.8% gain on the day. The resulting test of 50DMA support sets up a fresh run higher.\" class=\"wp-image-65336\" title=\"Netflix Inc (NFLX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-First-Solar-Inc-FSLR.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-First-Solar-Inc-FSLR-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-First-Solar-Inc-FSLR-1536x768.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-First-Solar-Inc-FSLR-1320x660.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>First Solar Inc (FSLR) suffered through a wild post-earnings day: a 12.5% open faded to an intraday loss and then a rebound to a 4.8% gain on the day. The resulting test of 50DMA support sets up a fresh run higher.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Live Nation Entertainment Inc (LYV) is a stark example of the vulnerability of stocks that have rallied long and strong. LYV has been in a bullish position ever since a 15% post-earnings breakout in May led to a confirmed 200DMA breakout. On Friday, the stock looked set to continue its rally after a small post-earnings gain. LYV even snuck by the $100 level. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/07\/28\/feds-home-in-on-ticketmaster-antitrust-case-00108771\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">A report from Politico<\/a> about potential Department of Justice action against Ticketmaster sent LYV plunging immediately and with reckless abandon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>LYV lost about 16% in less than 45 minutes. Buyers took over as LYV approached the last test of 20DMA support. LYV was also over-extended well below the lower BB. Buyers managed to close out LYV just above 50DMA support. Going into the close I moved to buy a hedged position of calendar call and put spreads but only the bearish side closed. So I suspect LYV will continue a bounce on Monday. However, LYV looks like a damaged stock. LYV will likely need clarity on the anti-trust rumors before resuming its push higher. Confirmation of the rumor may send LYV back toward Friday&#8217;s lows.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Live-Nation-Entertainment-Inc-LYV.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"808\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Live-Nation-Entertainment-Inc-LYV.png\" alt=\"The rumor mill ruined a positive post-earnings response for Live Nation Entertainment Inc (LYV). Sellers panicked and took the stock down 16.3% before buyers fought their way back to 50DMA support. LYV closed with a 7.8% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-65346\" title=\"Live Nation Entertainment Inc (LYV)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Live-Nation-Entertainment-Inc-LYV.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Live-Nation-Entertainment-Inc-LYV-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Live-Nation-Entertainment-Inc-LYV-1536x769.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Live-Nation-Entertainment-Inc-LYV-1320x661.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The rumor mill ruined a positive post-earnings response for Live Nation Entertainment Inc (LYV). Sellers panicked and took the stock down 16.3% before buyers fought their way back to 50DMA support. LYV closed with a 7.8% loss.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Very quietly, oil has rallied back into a bullish position. The accompanying rise in gas prices threatens the rosy inflation outlook and resilient consumer spending numbers. On Friday, the United States Oil ETF (USO) tested its highs for the year. A breakout from there will imply that gas prices will go yet higher with the breathless news headlines to follow. The resulting hit to consumer sentiment and wallets could tweak the tenor of the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-United-States-Oil-ETF-USO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"808\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-United-States-Oil-ETF-USO.png\" alt=\"The United States Oil ETF (USO) has snuck higher to a fresh test of the year's highs. An on-going rally could become the stock market's next headwind.\" class=\"wp-image-65337\" title=\"United States Oil ETF (USO)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-United-States-Oil-ETF-USO.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-United-States-Oil-ETF-USO-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-United-States-Oil-ETF-USO-1536x770.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-United-States-Oil-ETF-USO-1320x662.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The United States Oil ETF (USO) has snuck higher to a fresh test of the year&#8217;s highs. An on-going rally could become the stock market&#8217;s next headwind.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>I have been bearish on the fundamentals for Beyond Meat Inc (BYND) for a long time. Now, finally, the technicals are turning in favor of BYND. On Friday, I did a 180 degree turn and bought a call spread as a play on resilient support at the uptrend 20DMA. BYND has (bullishly) held a 200DMA breakout for much of July. Before this month, BYND last traded above its 200DMA two years ago. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Beyond-Meat-Inc-BYND.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"808\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Beyond-Meat-Inc-BYND.png\" alt=\"The ship is slowing turning for Beyond Meat Inc (BYND). It confirmed an earlier 200DMA breakout (the first in 2 years) and is holding firm at 20DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-65338\" title=\"Beyond Meat Inc (BYND)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Beyond-Meat-Inc-BYND.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Beyond-Meat-Inc-BYND-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Beyond-Meat-Inc-BYND-1536x770.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-Beyond-Meat-Inc-BYND-1320x662.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The ship is slowing turning for Beyond Meat Inc (BYND). It confirmed an earlier 200DMA breakout (the first in 2 years) and is holding firm at 20DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"805\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) rebounded for a push back into overbought territory.\" class=\"wp-image-65321\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT50-MMFI.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT50-MMFI-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT50-MMFI-1536x768.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT50-MMFI-1320x660.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) rebounded for a push back into overbought territory.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"808\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) returned to the middle of the range prior to Thursday's breakdown.\" class=\"wp-image-65322\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT200-MMTH.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT200-MMTH-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT200-MMTH-1536x769.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/072823-AT200-MMTH-1320x661.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) returned to the middle of the range prior to Thursday&#8217;s breakdown.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Day #84 over 20%, Day #58 over 30%, Day #55 over 40%, Day #41 over 50%, Day #16 over 60%, Day #1 over 70% (1st overbought day ended 1 day under 70%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long BYND call spread, long IWM call spread, long USO call and short shares, long LYV calendar put spread, long FSLR, long TDOC, long VNO put spread, long BXP put spread, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary The stock market delivered a gift on Friday as I scrambled to de-risk following the Bank of Japan&#8217;s drama on monetary policy. I braced for selling into bearish pressure and instead was pleasantly greeted by a broad push higher for stocks from the open. After the dust settled on the day, I &#8230; <a title=\"Buyers Push Against Topping Indices, Restart Overbought Conditions &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/07\/29\/buyers-push-against-topping-indices-restart-overbought-conditions-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":65356,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,482,1862,218,220,1576,20,219,43,599,1312,2887,377,32,490,512,338,997,796,1311,3,135,511,62,1304],"tags":[2995,495,398,2832,2371,3217,3216,2274,3258,3294,3292,3290,2201,1870,6,7,3289,231,222,2963,2218,909,138,2430,2431,413,1984,2947,65,2120,2390,362,2744,2945,3293,937,1375,538,1175,1176],"class_list":["post-65348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-business-services","category-commercial-real-estate","category-earnings","category-entertainment","category-forex","category-high-tech","category-industrial-sector","category-internet","category-manufacturing-2","category-market-breadth","category-oil","category-options","category-overbought","category-resistance","category-retail","category-sp-500-analysis","category-semiconductors","category-software","category-solar-energy","category-stock-market-trading","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-top","tag-alphabet-inc","tag-amazon-com","tag-amzn","tag-at50","tag-beyond-meat","tag-boston-properties-inc","tag-bxp","tag-bynd","tag-carvana-co","tag-celestica-inc","tag-cgi-inc","tag-cls","tag-compq","tag-cvna","tag-first-solar","tag-fslr","tag-gib","tag-goog","tag-intc","tag-intel-corporation","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-japanese-yen","tag-live-nation-entertainment","tag-lyv","tag-nasdaq","tag-roku","tag-roku-inc","tag-sp-500","tag-spot","tag-spotify-technology","tag-spy","tag-tdoc","tag-teledoc-health-inc","tag-terex-corporation","tag-tex","tag-united-states-oil-fund","tag-uso","tag-vno","tag-vornado-realty-trust"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Buyers Push Against Topping Indices, Restart Overbought Conditions \u2013 The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The stock market delivered a gift on Friday with a broad push higher for stocks from the open. 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