{"id":65240,"date":"2023-07-22T16:30:56","date_gmt":"2023-07-22T23:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=65240"},"modified":"2023-07-22T23:46:54","modified_gmt":"2023-07-23T06:46:54","slug":"renaissance-ipo-etf-less-volatile-way-to-speculate-than-arkk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/07\/22\/renaissance-ipo-etf-less-volatile-way-to-speculate-than-arkk\/","title":{"rendered":"Renaissance IPO ETF A Less Volatile Way to Speculate Than ARKK"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Almost a year ago, <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/08\/03\/market-breadth-last-did-this-17-months-ago\/\">I claimed<\/a> that investing in <strong>ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)<\/strong> was little different than speculating on initial public offerings in the <strong>Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO)<\/strong>. I was both right and wrong. On the way down, IPO far out-performed ARKK in 2021 and 2022. However, ARKK has benefited more than IPO in this year&#8217;s persistent rebound for the stock market. I was very right in calling out the irony of IPO offering a less volatile way to speculate than ARKK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>The following charts compare ARKK and IPO over three time periods. The candlestick chart, the volume, and the technical indicators all belong to ARKK. I overlayed the graph with IPO as an orange line. Neither ETF pays dividends.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1480\" height=\"783\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2021.png\" alt=\"ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) vs Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) since 2021 suggests IPO provides a more robust way to speculate when things turn sour.\" class=\"wp-image-65247\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2021.png 1480w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2021-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2021-1320x698.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1480px) 100vw, 1480px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) vs Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) since 2021 suggests IPO provides a more robust way to speculate when things turn sour.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1479\" height=\"783\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2022.png\" alt=\"ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) vs Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) since 2022 suggests IPO provides a more robust way to speculate when things turn sour.\" class=\"wp-image-65246\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2022.png 1479w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2022-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2022-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1479px) 100vw, 1479px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>A more robust way to speculate: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) vs Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) since 2022.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1479\" height=\"783\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2023.png\" alt=\"ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) vs Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) since 2023 suggests ARKK is the way to speculate on a rebound from sell-offs.\" class=\"wp-image-65245\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2023.png 1479w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2023-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230721_ARKK-vs-IPO-since-2023-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1479px) 100vw, 1479px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) vs Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) since 2023 suggests ARKK is the way to speculate on a rebound from sell-offs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The following table provides the approximate performance metrics where &#8220;since 20xx&#8221; refers to the ETF&#8217;s to-date performance since the beginning of the corresponding year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>ETF<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Since 2021<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Since 2022<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Since 2023<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO)<\/strong><\/td><td>-46.8%<\/td><td>-39.7%<\/td><td>+43.4%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)<\/strong><\/td><td>-61.9%<\/td><td>-50.4%<\/td><td>+50.5%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Trade<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>So what to make of this variation in performance? Your assessment likely depends on what you think of the top constituents of these ETFs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ARKK is dominated by large positions. One third of <a href=\"https:\/\/swingtradebot.com\/equities\/ARKK\/etf-components\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ARKK&#8217;s current holdings<\/a> are in Tesla Inc (TSLA) at 11.7%, Coinbase (COIN) at 7.3%, Roku Inc (ROKU) at 7.1%, and Zoom Video Communications, Inc (ZM) at 7.1%. TSLA is probably the only stock in this group that will ever hit new all-time highs. If not for TSLA, the ARKK franchise may never have reached the fame it holds today. The active management of ARKK is a main reason for buying it instead of just going all-in with TSLA. Cathie Wood and team are notorious for loading up on losing positions over and over again so ARKK has huge upside potential on rebounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the positive side, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2023\/06\/07\/cathie-woods-ark-buys-216m-coinbase-shares-as-sec-suit-sends-coin-prices-tumbling\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ARK loaded up on more Coinbase shares<\/a> after an SEC lawsuit slammed the stock in early June. Last week, Wood sold TSLA and COIN shares to buy more shares in still beaten up Twilio Inc (TWLO). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Cathie Wood\u2019s ARK funds sell Tesla &amp; Coinbase, buys Twilio\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/otcohx1pKdo?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>IPO is also dominated by large positions (surprisingly!). Almost one third of <a href=\"https:\/\/swingtradebot.com\/equities\/ipo\/etf-components\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IPO&#8217;s current holdings<\/a> are in AirBnB (ABNB) at 10.8%, Snowflake (SNOW) at 9.2%, Palantir (PLTR) at 6.5%, and DoorDash, Inc (DASH) at 5.1%. While I like this concentration better from a business standpoint than ARKK&#8217;s, I cannot see any of these stocks ever achieving new all-time highs. IPO is a rules-based ETF based on market caps, so it will not get weighed down by overly aggressive purchases in a downtrend, but it will also not benefit as much as ARKK from the lows of sell-offs. From <a href=\"https:\/\/etfs.renaissancecapital.com\/us-ipo-etf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the Renaissance site<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Each quarter the ETF is rebalanced as new IPOs are included and older constituents cycle out three years after their IPO. Constituents are weighted by float-adjusted market capitalization with a cap imposed on any weightings exceeding 10%.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Note that IPO currently has zero overlap with the stocks of the S&amp;P 500 whereas TSLA is a major component of the S&amp;P 500. Since the S&amp;P 500 only includes well-established companies in its index, IPO will likely never overlap with the S&amp;P 500. Thus, IPO offers an intriguingly &#8220;high octane&#8221; way to diversify holdings for major upside potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To-date, I have sat in IPO and traded in and out of ARKK. I last laid out an ARKK trading strategy last September in &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/25\/bottom-falls-out-of-ark\/\">The Bottom Falls Out of ARK<\/a>.&#8221; My trades in ARKK this year featured multiple rounds of selling calls against shares until finally my ARKK position was called away from me two expirations ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Being ARKK-less leaves we without a new strategy. I think last Thursday&#8217;s TSLA-driven 5.7% plunge in ARKK opens the potential for a fresh dip buying opportunity, hopefully at support at the 20-day moving average (DMA). (True to form IPO lost less than ARKK with a 2.8% downdraft on the day). My first re-entry will likely feature shares married with short calls. If the sell-off continues from there, I will broaden my view to relaunching my entire hedged ARK portfolio strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long IPO, long ZM call spread, long ABNB, long COIN put spread, long TWLO call spread<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Almost a year ago, I claimed that investing in ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) was little different than speculating on initial public offerings in the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO). I was both right and wrong. On the way down, IPO far out-performed ARKK in 2021 and 2022. However, ARKK has benefited more than IPO in this &#8230; <a title=\"Renaissance IPO ETF A Less Volatile Way to Speculate Than ARKK\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/07\/22\/renaissance-ipo-etf-less-volatile-way-to-speculate-than-arkk\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":65249,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2637,548,219,1311,62],"tags":[2981,2982,2736,2857,591,3288,1344,3153,887,2404,1797],"class_list":["post-65240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-electric-vehicles","category-financials","category-high-tech","category-software","category-technical-analysis","tag-ark-innovation-etf","tag-arkk","tag-coin","tag-coinbase-global-inc","tag-ipo","tag-relative-performance","tag-renaissance-ipo-etf","tag-tesla-inc","tag-tsla","tag-twilio","tag-twlo"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Renaissance IPO ETF A Less Volatile Way to Speculate Than ARKK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I was right and wrong on last year&#039;s IPO vs ARKK comparison. 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