{"id":6509,"date":"2011-08-07T14:12:44","date_gmt":"2011-08-07T18:12:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=6509"},"modified":"2011-08-07T14:12:44","modified_gmt":"2011-08-07T18:12:44","slug":"commodities-crash-trades-anr-ewz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/08\/07\/commodities-crash-trades-anr-ewz\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Commodities Crash&#8221; Triggers First Trades &#8211; ANR and EWZ"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/285431-commodities-crash-triggers-first-trades-alpha-natural-resources-ishares-brazil-etf\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In July, I used ideas from Jeremy Grantham to lay out a case for taking advantage of a coming &#8220;commodities crash&#8221; to invest in and prepare for a future resource-constrained world: &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/277827-preparing-for-profits-in-a-resource-constrained-world\">Preparing for Profits in a Resource-Constrained World<\/a>&#8221; and &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/278697-profiting-from-physical-assets-in-a-resource-constrained-world-rules-and-picks\">Profiting from Physical Assets in a Resource-Constrained World &#8211; Rules and Picks<\/a>&#8220;. {snip} &#8230;I am using the effective launch of QE2 (second round of quantitative easing) at the end of August as a benchmark for triggering purchases&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Thanks to a 17% drop after reporting earnings Thursday morning, Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) has the ignominious distinction of being one of the first to punch through QE2 support.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_6514\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6514\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_ANR.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_ANR.jpg\" alt=\"Alpha Natural Resources has completed a QE2 roundtrip\" title=\"Alpha Natural Resources has completed a QE2 roundtrip\" width=\"525\" height=\"469\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6514\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_ANR.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_ANR-300x268.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-6514\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alpha Natural Resources has completed a QE2 roundtrip<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n*<strong>Chart created using <a href=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\">TeleChart<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Certainly the complete collapse in the stocks of steel companies suggests a dismal near-term outlook for ANR (I will write more on the collapse in steel stocks later&#8230;) {snip} &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Shorts have hounded ANR&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_6516\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6516\" style=\"width: 436px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_ANR-shortinterest.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_ANR-shortinterest.jpg\" alt=\"Short interest swelled earlier this year only to dissipitate just ahead of its large sell-off\" title=\"Short interest swelled earlier this year only to dissipitate just ahead of its large sell-off\" width=\"446\" height=\"381\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6516\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_ANR-shortinterest.jpg 446w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_ANR-shortinterest-300x256.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 446px) 100vw, 446px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-6516\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Short interest swelled earlier this year only to dissipitate just ahead of its large sell-off<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/aspxcontent\/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=ANR&#038;selected=ANR\">NASDAQ.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Brazil&#8217;s economy gets a large contribution from the production and export of commodities, making it a prime candidate for the commodities crash playbook. EWZ, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF, triggered TWO different buy signals last week. EWZ erased all its post-QE2 gains last Wednesday (Aug 3), but I bought the next day when I noticed EWZ hit my <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/06\/04\/20pct-rule-works-on-ewz\/\">rule for buying EWZ when it reaches a 20% correction<\/a>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_6519\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6519\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_EWZ.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_EWZ.jpg\" alt=\"EWZ finally breaks down\" title=\"EWZ finally breaks down\" width=\"525\" height=\"466\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6519\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_EWZ.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_EWZ-300x266.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-6519\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">EWZ finally breaks down<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n*<strong>All stock charts created using <a href=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\">TeleChart<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/285431-commodities-crash-triggers-first-trades-alpha-natural-resources-ishares-brazil-etf\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long EWZ, ANR<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) In July, I used ideas from Jeremy Grantham to lay out a case for taking advantage of a coming &#8220;commodities crash&#8221; to invest in and prepare for a future resource-constrained world: &#8220;Preparing for Profits in &#8230; <a title=\"&#8220;Commodities Crash&#8221; Triggers First Trades &#8211; ANR and EWZ\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/08\/07\/commodities-crash-trades-anr-ewz\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[181,199],"tags":[467,468,686,685,183,361,257],"class_list":["post-6509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brazil","category-commodities","tag-alpha-natural-resources","tag-anr","tag-coal","tag-commodities-crash-playbook","tag-ewz","tag-ishares-msci-brazil-index-fund-etf","tag-share-repurchase"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>&quot;Commodities Crash&quot; Triggers First Trades - ANR and EWZ - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/08\/07\/commodities-crash-trades-anr-ewz\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"&quot;Commodities Crash&quot; Triggers First Trades - ANR and EWZ - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. 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