{"id":6498,"date":"2011-08-07T14:02:30","date_gmt":"2011-08-07T18:02:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=6498"},"modified":"2011-08-07T15:16:45","modified_gmt":"2011-08-07T19:16:45","slug":"sp-downgrade-dollar-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/08\/07\/sp-downgrade-dollar-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P Downgrade of U.S. Debt Sets Up A Potential Dollar Relief Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/285453-s-p-downgrade-of-u-s-debt-sets-up-a-potential-dollar-relief-rally\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nouriel Roubini thinks the S&#038;P downgrade could help lock the U.S. into a recession and Christina Romer wants to &#8220;swing for the fences&#8221; and respond with a massive jobs bill &#8211; Bloomberg Video: &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/youtu.be\/MPd8FOVKHVw\">Roubini, Rosner, Bianco and Romer Discuss U.S. Downgrade<\/a>&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>China is &#8230; fuming &#8211; {snip} See: &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/China-flays-US-over-credit-rb-3974888722.html?x=0\">China tells U.S. &#8216;good old days&#8217; of borrowing are over<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Euro-region central bank governors are scrambling to make sure the S&#038;P downgrade does not make the European sovereign debt situation even worse: &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2011-08-06\/euro-region-central-banks-will-conference-tomorrow-on-debt-u-s-downgrade.html\">Euro-Area Central Banks to Hold Crisis Call<\/a>&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Finally, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/krugman-says-debt-deal-spending-cuts-will-slow-economy\/2011\/08\/01\/gIQAnDe7nI_video.html#\"> Paul Krugman thinks ratings agencies are irrelevant<\/a>: <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" width=\"480px\" height=\"270px\" src=\"http:\/\/specials.washingtonpost.com\/mv\/embed\/?title=Krugman%20Says%20Debt%20Deal%20Spending%20Cuts%20Will%20Slow%20Economy&#038;stillURL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Frf%2Fimage_606w%2F2010-2019%2FWashingtonPost%2F2011%2F08%2F01%2FBusiness%2FVideos%2F08012011-58v%2F08012011-58v.jpg&#038;flvURL=%2Fmedia%2F2011%2F08%2F01%2F08012011-58v.m4v&#038;width=480&#038;height=270&#038;autoStart=0&#038;clickThru=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fbusiness%2Fkrugman-says-debt-deal-spending-cuts-will-slow-economy%2F2011%2F08%2F01%2FgIQAnDe7nI_video.html\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Arguably, the news of the downgrade comes as little surprise, but it does present an interesting scenario for a continuation of the dollar&#8217;s bounce from its July lows&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_6502\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6502\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_DXY0.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_DXY0.jpg\" alt=\"Dollar index could be setting up for a large relief rally\" title=\"Dollar index could be setting up for a large relief rally\" width=\"525\" height=\"390\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6502\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_DXY0.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/110805_DXY0-300x222.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-6502\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Dollar index could be setting up for a large relief rally<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n*<strong>Chart created using <a href=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\">TeleChart<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>I have never bothered to review a ratings report, but I could not help myself this time around&#8230;{snip}&#8230; What stood out the most to me was the extensive commentary about the vicious political deadlock in America. Standard and Poor&#8217;s fears that America&#8217;s national politicians will be unable to agree on anything substantial or make any progress on the deals needed to resolve long-term fiscal (or economic) problems&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>S&#038;P even felt compelled to assume that the Bush tax cuts will not expire at the end of 2012 as currently planned. This is a large and important assumption because it further deepens budget deficits going out into future years and worsens the fiscal outlook:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The end of a relief rally for the dollar will likely bring &#8230; longer-term realities back into full view for financial markets.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/285453-s-p-downgrade-of-u-s-debt-sets-up-a-potential-dollar-relief-rally\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net long the U.S. dollar, long FXA, GLD, GG, SLV, PAAS, TBT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Nouriel Roubini thinks the S&#038;P downgrade could help lock the U.S. into a recession and Christina Romer wants to &#8220;swing for the fences&#8221; and respond with a massive jobs bill &#8211; Bloomberg Video: &#8220;Roubini, Rosner, &#8230; <a title=\"S&#038;P Downgrade of U.S. Debt Sets Up A Potential Dollar Relief Rally\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/08\/07\/sp-downgrade-dollar-rally\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,347,20,266,21],"tags":[263,444,684,443,1591],"class_list":["post-6498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-fixed-income","category-forex","category-government","category-u-s-dollar","tag-debt","tag-proshares-ultrashort-20-year-treasury","tag-standard-poors","tag-tbt","tag-u-s-dollar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P Downgrade of U.S. Debt Sets Up A Potential Dollar Relief Rally - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/08\/07\/sp-downgrade-dollar-rally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P Downgrade of U.S. Debt Sets Up A Potential Dollar Relief Rally - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. 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