{"id":64867,"date":"2023-06-18T09:40:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-18T16:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=64867"},"modified":"2023-06-19T10:34:24","modified_gmt":"2023-06-19T17:34:24","slug":"is-an-overbought-rally-next-frontier-for-bulls-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/06\/18\/is-an-overbought-rally-next-frontier-for-bulls-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Is An Overbought Rally the Next Frontier for Bulls? &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week started strong with Goldman Sachs (GS). Analysts there looked beyond the coming Federal Reserve meeting and <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/goldman-sachs-lifts-sp-500-price-target-to-4500-as-index-enters-bull-market-134435728.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">hiked their year-end price target for the S&amp;P 500 to 4500<\/a>. The index quickly moved half the remaining distance and opened the door for more price chasing by analysts before 2023 hits the halfway mark. The shifting price targets align with <a href=\"https:\/\/insight.factset.com\/what-is-driving-the-expected-rebound-in-sp-500-earnings-growth-in-q4-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the upward adjustments for Q4 earnings expectations<\/a>. Combined with <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/06\/14\/fed-avoids-ending-the-summer-of-loving-stocks\/\">the Federal Reserve&#8217;s upward revisions for the economy<\/a>, there is clearly less fear and concern about a recession later this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All these positive dynamics open the potential for an overbought rally in the coming days and weeks. Bears have complained about market breadth all the way up and suddenly market breadth is now at the frontier of an overbought rally. A push higher from here leaves them clinging to worries about a bubble. A pullback from here will get them declaring victory&#8230;even before the uptrend actually ends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) gained 2.6% for the week although Friday&#8217;s small pullback ended a 6-day winning streak. The index is practically going parabolic as it follows its upper Bollinger Band (BB) higher and higher. The index closed the week at a 14-month high. The summer of loving stocks is well underway for the S&amp;P 500 with a 4.9% gain since the close of trading before Memorial Day. The index looks ready for the frontier of an extended overbought rally.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"813\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) ended a 6-day winning streak with a 0.4% pullback. A near parabolic run-up hangs in the balance.\" class=\"wp-image-64871\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-SP-500-SPY.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-SP-500-SPY-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-SP-500-SPY-1536x774.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-SP-500-SPY-1320x665.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) ended a 6-day winning streak with a 0.4% pullback. A near parabolic run-up hangs in the balance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) is up 5.5% for the summer of loving stocks. The tech-laden index looks even more ready for the frontier of overbought trading than the S&amp;P 500 for the frontier of an overbought rally. The NASDAQ has levitated mainly just under its upper BB. Thus, it does not look quite as stretched. The NASDAQ grabbed a 3.3% gain for the week and closed at a 14-month high. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1614\" height=\"813\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) pulled back 0.7% after setting a new 14-month high.\" class=\"wp-image-64872\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1614w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1536x774.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1320x665.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1614px) 100vw, 1614px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) pulled back 0.7% after setting a new 14-month high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) scraped out a 0.5% gain for the week. A trading range has developed since the previous week&#8217;s breakout. I am guessing holders who were surprised by March&#8217;s plunge are using current prices to close out positions in relief. After these motivated sellers finish, IWM will likely gain the most from crossing the frontier of overbought trading. The next challenge of the bear market line could precede a longer lasting breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1614\" height=\"813\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is chopping around in a wide trading range 8 days and running.\" class=\"wp-image-64873\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1614w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1536x774.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1320x665.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1614px) 100vw, 1614px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is chopping around in a wide trading range 8 days and running.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) lost 5% in the wake of the Fed. The VIX reversed almost all those losses the next day despite a strong market rally day. The VIX plunged on Friday to a new 41-month closing low despite pullbacks across the major indices. The volatility index still looks broken, but the overall message is clear: the VIX wants to keep moving lower. Such a bias fully endorses and supports crossing the frontier for an overbought rally. This kind of complacency is just the right fuel for buyers to press on despite stretched trading conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-volatility-index-VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1614\" height=\"816\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-volatility-index-VIX.png\" alt=\"Despite the day's pullback, the volatility index (VIX) plunged to a new 41-month low. \" class=\"wp-image-64874\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-volatility-index-VIX.png 1614w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-volatility-index-VIX-768x388.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-volatility-index-VIX-1536x777.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-volatility-index-VIX-1320x667.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1614px) 100vw, 1614px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Despite the day&#8217;s pullback, the volatility index (VIX) plunged to a new 41-month low. <\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call at the Frontier of Overbought Trading<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 66.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, closed the week at 66.8% after opening at 69.6%. This tease at the frontier of overbought trading (the threshold of 70%) was the second of the last three trading days. I will consider a move by my favorite technical indicator across the frontier of overbought trading as a further confirmation for the summer of loving stocks. I definitely prefer to hold onto my cautiously bullish short-term trading call. However, if AT50 prints two lower closes below the 70% threshold defining overbought conditions, I will flip cautiously bearish <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">by rule<\/a>. Note <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/06\/11\/looming-collision-between-overbought-trading-and-fed-the-market-breadth\/\">I did not trigger the rule a week ago<\/a> because AT50 did not seem to get close enough to the overbought threshold. I made a judgment call that paid off. I still think any near-term pullbacks will find firm support at the uptrending 20DMAs and\/or 50DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Readers know I typically buy call options in Intel Corporation (INTC) between earnings. However, since the blow-up in January I have hesitated. That wariness has caused me to miss some fantastic between earnings trades! Last month&#8217;s plunge below 200DMA support really threw me for a loop. Now all I can do is wait for the next pullback. INTC is clearly on a comeback trail with this breakout above the consolidation period in place since October. This move makes the most sense as <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/03\/19\/latest-lap-generative-ai-trade\/\">a part of the generative AI trade<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Intel-Corporation-INTC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1614\" height=\"816\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Intel-Corporation-INTC.png\" alt=\"Intel Corporation (INTC) shot straight up from its last test of 50DMA support; it's at a 10-month high.\" class=\"wp-image-64877\" title=\"Intel Corporation (INTC)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Intel-Corporation-INTC.png 1614w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Intel-Corporation-INTC-768x388.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Intel-Corporation-INTC-1536x777.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Intel-Corporation-INTC-1320x667.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1614px) 100vw, 1614px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Intel Corporation (INTC) shot straight up from its last test of 50DMA support; it&#8217;s at a 10-month high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Best Buy (BBY) is one of an increasing number of stocks defying expectations for a recession later this year. (Do stocks really discount events 6-12 months out? Yes, when they agree with the observer&#8217;s expectations!). Last week&#8217;s confirmed 200DMA breakout positions BBY to eventually challenge its high for the year. I added an August call spread to shares.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Best-Buy-Co-Inc-BBY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"812\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Best-Buy-Co-Inc-BBY.png\" alt=\"Best Buy Co Inc (BBY) confirmed a 200DMA breakout including a test of 200DMA support and closed at a 3-month high.\" class=\"wp-image-64878\" title=\"Best Buy Co Inc (BBY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Best-Buy-Co-Inc-BBY.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Best-Buy-Co-Inc-BBY-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Best-Buy-Co-Inc-BBY-1536x773.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Best-Buy-Co-Inc-BBY-1320x665.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Best Buy Co Inc (BBY) confirmed a 200DMA breakout including a test of 200DMA support and closed at a 3-month high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>GameStop Corporation (GME) is the latest candidate for what I call the &#8220;they know nothing!&#8221; stock market reactions. GME gapped down post-earnings on June 8th. Buyers stepped into the gap but stopped short of 50DMA resistance. The rebound continued until the post-earnings gap filled. Now, the stock is trickling back down to the next technical test at 20DMA support. Back in March, GME soared 35.2% post-earnings but faded from 200DMA resistance. Over the next 6 weeks, the stock drifted lower until it almost reversed the entire post-earnings gain. Clearly, no one knows what to make of GME&#8217;s earnings. The stock looks like a trader&#8217;s plaything in a know-nothing haze of trigger happy reactions to stock news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"We&#039;re being afflicted by a huge cohort of know-nothings, Cramer says\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ythCm2frI9o?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-GameStop-Corp-GME.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1618\" height=\"817\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-GameStop-Corp-GME.png\" alt=\"GameStop Corp (GME) drifted toward 20DMA support after reversing a big post-earnings gap down.\" class=\"wp-image-64879\" title=\"GameStop Corp (GME)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-GameStop-Corp-GME.png 1618w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-GameStop-Corp-GME-768x388.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-GameStop-Corp-GME-1536x776.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-GameStop-Corp-GME-1320x667.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1618px) 100vw, 1618px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>GameStop Corp (GME) drifted toward 20DMA support after reversing a big post-earnings gap down.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is staying consistent. Very &#8220;quietly&#8221; ORCL has trended higher since its October low. A post-earnings 6.0% gain has triggered a near parabolic move for ORCL. The stock now sits at fresh all-time highs. When you get a chance, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ogYgelSk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">check out the long-term chart<\/a> dating back at least to 2002. I can only shake my head and lament because a former colleague from the 1990s always insisted that I should buy and hold ORCL, but I just was not impressed with the company. Silly me. At least I eventually listened to her about the importance of buying and owning a home!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Oracle-Corp-ORCL.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1618\" height=\"813\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Oracle-Corp-ORCL.png\" alt=\"Oracle Corp (ORCL) is on a parabolic run with all-time highs after a 6.0% post-earnings surge.\" class=\"wp-image-64880\" title=\"Oracle Corp (ORCL)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Oracle-Corp-ORCL.png 1618w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Oracle-Corp-ORCL-768x386.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Oracle-Corp-ORCL-1536x772.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Oracle-Corp-ORCL-1320x663.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1618px) 100vw, 1618px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Oracle Corp (ORCL) is on a parabolic run with all-time highs after a 6.0% post-earnings surge.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Bears have looked at the commodity complex for confirmation of impending economic doom. Yet, all of the sudden, that leg of the stool broke down as commodity stocks broke out last week. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX_ confirmed 200DMA support with a 5.3% gain and gap above its 50DMA. FCX confirmed its 50DMA breakout but needs to conquer the April high to end the downtrend. In the meantime, bears could next complain about the fresh inflationary pressures signaled by the likes of Dr. Copper.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Freeport-McMoRan-Inc-FCX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1617\" height=\"814\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Freeport-McMoRan-Inc-FCX.png\" alt=\"Copper is on the move again with Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) confirming a big 50DMA breakout.\" class=\"wp-image-64881\" title=\"Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Freeport-McMoRan-Inc-FCX.png 1617w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Freeport-McMoRan-Inc-FCX-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Freeport-McMoRan-Inc-FCX-1536x773.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Freeport-McMoRan-Inc-FCX-1320x664.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1617px) 100vw, 1617px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Copper is on the move again with Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) confirming a big 50DMA breakout.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Diversified commodities player BHP Group Limited (BHP) looks even better than FCX. The chart below is from the Australian Sock Exchange (ASX) to show how BHP is already challenging its previous highs. Like FCX, the 200DMA is trending higher, so I want to buy dips from here.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-BHP-Group-Ltd-BHP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1616\" height=\"816\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-BHP-Group-Ltd-BHP.png\" alt=\"BHP Group Ltd (BHP) also gapped higher along with copper and confirmed a big 50DMA breakout.\" class=\"wp-image-64882\" title=\"BHP Group Ltd (BHP)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-BHP-Group-Ltd-BHP.png 1616w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-BHP-Group-Ltd-BHP-768x388.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-BHP-Group-Ltd-BHP-1536x776.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-BHP-Group-Ltd-BHP-1320x667.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1616px) 100vw, 1616px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>BHP Group Ltd (BHP) also gapped higher along with copper and confirmed a big 50DMA breakout.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF (NGE) is my surprise of the week, maybe the year. NGE has been on a roller coaster ride through February presidential elections in Nigeria. The latest surge has come in the wake of the new President&#8217;s inauguration, the end of gasoline subsidies, and now liberalization of foreign exchange that promises to align the naira closer to black market rates. I am looking to buy the dips from here as the action in 2023 makes NGE look like it has finally generated a bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Global-X-MSCI-Nigeria-ETF-NGE.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1617\" height=\"814\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Global-X-MSCI-Nigeria-ETF-NGE.png\" alt=\"The Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF (NGE) has come alive this year. The recent post-inauguration rebound has taken NGE back to 2023 highs.\" class=\"wp-image-64883\" title=\"Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF (NGE)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Global-X-MSCI-Nigeria-ETF-NGE.png 1617w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Global-X-MSCI-Nigeria-ETF-NGE-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Global-X-MSCI-Nigeria-ETF-NGE-1536x773.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-Global-X-MSCI-Nigeria-ETF-NGE-1320x664.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1617px) 100vw, 1617px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF (NGE) has come alive this year. The recent post-inauguration rebound has taken NGE back to 2023 highs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1614\" height=\"813\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) is still teasing the overbought threshold. The bull\/bear market call hangs in the balance.\" class=\"wp-image-64875\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT50-MMFI.png 1614w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT50-MMFI-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT50-MMFI-1536x774.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT50-MMFI-1320x665.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1614px) 100vw, 1614px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) is still teasing the overbought threshold. The bull\/bear market call hangs in the balance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1618\" height=\"815\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) is mostly chopping around since a surge a week and a half ago.\" class=\"wp-image-64876\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT200-MMTH.png 1618w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT200-MMTH-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT200-MMTH-1536x774.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/061623-AT200-MMTH-1320x665.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1618px) 100vw, 1618px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) is mostly chopping around since a surge a week and a half ago.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Day #54 over 20%, Day #28 over 30%, Day #25 over 40%, Day #11 over 50%, Day #8 over 60%, Day #79 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long QQQ call spread, long IWM call spread, long BBY shares and call spread<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: Last week started strong with Goldman Sachs (GS). Analysts there looked beyond the coming Federal Reserve meeting and hiked their year-end price target for the S&amp;P 500 to 4500. The index quickly moved half the remaining distance and opened the door for more price chasing by analysts before 2023 hits the halfway &#8230; <a title=\"Is An Overbought Rally the Next Frontier for Bulls? &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/06\/18\/is-an-overbought-rally-next-frontier-for-bulls-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":64903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1226,584,1303,482,199,219,2088,490,512,796,1311,511,62,982],"tags":[1820,2832,721,720,631,2397,2201,493,2584,2984,3265,2446,222,2963,2218,909,413,2087,608,609,65,362,303,931],"class_list":["post-64867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-africa","category-bollinger-band","category-bottom","category-breakout","category-commodities","category-high-tech","category-nigeria","category-overbought","category-resistance","category-semiconductors","category-software","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-bby","tag-best-buy","tag-bhp","tag-bhp-group-limited","tag-compq","tag-fcx","tag-freeport-mcmoran-inc","tag-gamestop-corporation","tag-global-x-msci-nigeria-etf","tag-gme","tag-intc","tag-intel-corporation","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-nge","tag-oracle","tag-orcl","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is An Overbought Rally the Next Frontier for Bulls? 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