{"id":64504,"date":"2023-05-31T17:08:41","date_gmt":"2023-06-01T00:08:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=64504"},"modified":"2023-06-24T23:49:22","modified_gmt":"2023-06-25T06:49:22","slug":"defiant-to-end-of-cycle-the-housing-market-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/05\/31\/defiant-to-end-of-cycle-the-housing-market-review\/","title":{"rendered":"Defiant to the End of the Cycle? – The Housing Market Review"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Housing Market Intro and Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The seasonal trade on home builders<\/a> ended in the middle of one of those critical junctures for these stocks and the housing market in general. Mortgage rates are done coming down for now and could break to new highs as the Federal Reserve continues hiking short-term rates to battle inflation. The strong labor market that has helped buttress housing demand is also the very thing enabling the Fed to keep hiking interest rates. Waning consumer sentiment threatens to take some steam out of the enthusiasm for buying homes. Yet, new home sales continue to trend upward and, in turn, they are boosting the confidence of home builders. Publicly traded builders are still able to report strong earnings results and deliver strong guidance. The chronically tight inventory of existing homes adds the boost of more market share for home builders. Finally, housing permits continue to rebound, but housing starts in the south are waning. This overall mix creates a picture of a housing market that wants to stay defiant right into the teeth of whatever economic recession is supposed to come soon to end the current economic cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"The
The current yield curve (constructed from short and long-term Treasury bills) suggests the bond market expects a recession as early as December of this year (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<\/a>)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n