{"id":62920,"date":"2023-01-15T17:21:37","date_gmt":"2023-01-16T01:21:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=62920"},"modified":"2023-01-15T21:10:27","modified_gmt":"2023-01-16T05:10:27","slug":"parabolic-gold-and-crypto-in-focus-with-looming-debt-drama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/01\/15\/parabolic-gold-and-crypto-in-focus-with-looming-debt-drama\/","title":{"rendered":"Parabolic Gold and Crypto In Focus with Looming Debt Drama"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>With the power change in the U.S. House of Representatives, 2023 will be another year of drama over <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/United_States_debt_ceiling\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the U.S.&#8217;s debt ceiling<\/a>. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently brought the looming debt drama to the forefront of economic headlines by delivering the obligatory warning about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/yellen-urges-us-congress-act-quickly-debt-limit-2023-01-13\/\">the risk of default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ever-growing size of the debt relative to GDP provides on-going fodder for consternation and debate. This year&#8217;s debt drama will be further tinted by a) rising interest rates which make debt service more expensive for the Federal government and b) high inflation which <a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2022\/12\/03\/the-fed-plants-a-flag-on-peak-inflation-and-an-economic-soft-landing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">we hope has peaked<\/a> and is on its way to much lower levels. The higher profile for the U.S. debt should make SPDR&nbsp;Gold Shares (GLD) <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4566124-gld-sticking-gold-in-2023-and-beyond\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a winner this year<\/a>. I also suspect the current parabolic moves in cryptocurrencies may represent trader efforts to front-run the debt drama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Debt Drama<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To some, the public debt looks like America&#8217;s most alarming economic problem. To others, the public debt is just the cost of getting the government&#8217;s job done; a growing economy will take care of everything. (My opinions about the debt were shaped by watching the and <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/money\/080822_IOUSA.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reviewing the movie I.O.U.S.A.<\/a> and reading &#8220;Empire of Debt: The Rise of An Epic Financial Crisis&#8221; which basically advised buying gold.) The rising debt to GDP ratio increasingly hands the advantage to those who care about the debt. In recent years, the debt to GDP ratio has had three important eras of growth:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The go-go 1980s when government spent heavily to build-up the military.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The wake of the Great Financial crisis when <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=Yd2B\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">economic growth<\/a> dropped from historical norms, and the government spent heavily to reconstruct the economy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The COVID-19 pandemic when government spent heavily to fill massive chasms in the economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230115_Total-Public-Debt-as-Percent-of-Gross-Domestic-Product.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1168\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230115_Total-Public-Debt-as-Percent-of-Gross-Domestic-Product.png\" alt=\"Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product\" class=\"wp-image-62921\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230115_Total-Public-Debt-as-Percent-of-Gross-Domestic-Product.png 1168w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230115_Total-Public-Debt-as-Percent-of-Gross-Domestic-Product-768x296.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1168px) 100vw, 1168px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>U.S. Office of Management and Budget and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product [GFDEGDQ188S], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/GFDEGDQ188S\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>; January 15, 2023<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Representing debt relative to GDP puts the debt into proper context. An economy with debt growing at the same rate as the economy is balanced. Economists argue about the acceptable ranges for the ratio. Generally, a ratio above 100% raises concerns and above 150% raises alarm bells. Over the above timeframe, the U.S. first went over the 100% level in Q4 of 2012. The pandemic-induced spike is being &#8220;paid down&#8221; by the current economic recovery. However, if the U.S. goes into recession, the ratio could surge again as the economy slows or even contracts. The current political environment may tightly constrain any growth in anti-recessionary spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Gold<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold went parabolic last March ahead of the first rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Markets have not seen a Federal Reserve serious about fighting inflation in over 40 years, so skepticism abounded. As the realities of aggressive monetary tightening unfolded, gold sold off. The sell-off did not end until around the time of the last peak in the yield of 10-year Treasuries. As markets increasingly anticipate the end of the Fed&#8217;s rate hikes, gold&#8217;s momentum has also increased. Now, gold is nearly parabolic again. The graph of SPDR&nbsp;Gold Shares (GLD) shows the price action around these bookends.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230113_GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1478\" height=\"783\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230113_GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust.png\" alt=\"The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has nearly gone parabolic so far in 2023.\" class=\"wp-image-62925\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230113_GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust.png 1478w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230113_GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230113_GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1478px) 100vw, 1478px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has nearly gone parabolic so far in 2023.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>I strongly suspect gold will pull back from this move gone overdrive. However, I am eager to buy that dip given GLD is in breakout mode above its 200-day moving average (DMA) (the blue line above). Assuming my debt-related thesis for financial markets holds true, then GLD soaring 2.4% on the day of U.S. elections (November 8, 2022)  makes a lot of sense. GLD in turn confirmed a 50DMA (red line above) breakout at that time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Bitcoin<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Cryptocurrency missed the early debt signals because of <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/12\/26\/rolling-crypto-crises-test-google-trends-momentum-check\/\">the historic collapse of crypto-exchange FTX in early November<\/a>. The concurrent collapse in cryptocurrencies was at its most intense on the day of the election and the next day. The healing finally got moving over the past week. The make-up for lost time has been so intense that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) have gone parabolic. BTC\/USD even confirmed a 200DMA breakout over the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230115_BTCUSD-Bitcoin.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1479\" height=\"783\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230115_BTCUSD-Bitcoin.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) has gone parabolic with a 24% move since it first punched through its upper Bollinger Band (BB).\" class=\"wp-image-62931\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230115_BTCUSD-Bitcoin.png 1479w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230115_BTCUSD-Bitcoin-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/20230115_BTCUSD-Bitcoin-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1479px) 100vw, 1479px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) has gone parabolic with a 24% move since it first punched through its upper Bollinger Band (BB).<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Now that Bitcoin has recovered its post FTX losses, resistance to the overheated move <em>should<\/em> appear. If not, BTC\/USD could quickly move to $24,000. Otherwise, after a fresh period of cooling off, I will look to see whether crypto prices move with growing debt drama&#8230;and of course monetary policy drama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long GLD, long PHYS, long BTCUSD, long GBTC, long BITO, long BITI<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the power change in the U.S. House of Representatives, 2023 will be another year of drama over the U.S.&#8217;s debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently brought the looming debt drama to the forefront of economic headlines by delivering the obligatory warning about the risk of default if Congress does not increase the debt &#8230; <a title=\"Parabolic Gold and Crypto In Focus with Looming Debt Drama\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2023\/01\/15\/parabolic-gold-and-crypto-in-focus-with-looming-debt-drama\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":62935,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,482,199,1974,59,266,62],"tags":[602,2308,263,247,200,24,981,1816,284],"class_list":["post-62920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakout","category-commodities","category-cryptocurrency-forex","category-economy","category-government","category-technical-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-btcusd-2","tag-debt","tag-gdp","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-janet-yellen","tag-parabolic","tag-spdr-gold-shares"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Parabolic Gold and Crypto In Focus with Looming Debt Drama<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Yellen brought a looming debt drama to the forefront of economic headlines. 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