{"id":61560,"date":"2022-10-04T18:41:44","date_gmt":"2022-10-05T01:41:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=61560"},"modified":"2022-10-06T08:34:45","modified_gmt":"2022-10-06T15:34:45","slug":"october-sugar-high-ends-oversold-trading-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/10\/04\/october-sugar-high-ends-oversold-trading-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"An October Sugar High Ends Oversold Trading &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/10\/01\/somber-september-puts-last-pandemic-era-gains-at-risk-the-market-breadth\/\">September was somber<\/a>. October so far is a sugar high in comparison. With the remaining pandemic era gains preserved for now, the major indices immediately face the challenge of downtrends in place since August&#8217;s peak. The conclusion of an extended (8 days long) oversold trading period means, according to history, that at least one more oversold period may still await traders in the near-term. October is the last of <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/09\/11\/how-to-trade-during-the-stock-markets-most-dangerous-months\/\">the stock market&#8217;s most dangerous months<\/a>, so accordingly I find it difficult to celebrate a buyer&#8217;s victory right out the gate. It is particularly hard to celebrate with the frenetic swings from despair to elated anticipation of things like Fed pivots, central bank capitulations, and peak inflation. Still, I will follow the technicals where they lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) reversed course sharply enough to close just short of converged resistance at its downtrending 20-day moving average (DMA) and the bear market line. In two days, the index gained a sugar high 5.7%. Trading volume supports the case for the bulls. The green and red vertical bars in the chart below show a steady uptrend since late September and continuing through the swift buying that started this month with a sugar high.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1058\" height=\"496\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) gained 3.1% on top of the previous day's 2.6% gain. The sugar high now faces an immediate test from overhead resistance at the 20DMA and bear market line.\" class=\"wp-image-61568\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-SP-500-SPY.png 1058w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-SP-500-SPY-768x360.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1058px) 100vw, 1058px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) gained 3.1% on top of the previous day&#8217;s 2.6% gain. The sugar high now faces an immediate test from overhead resistance at the 20DMA and bear market line.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The &#8220;technosphere&#8221; was breathless over a historic test of support at the 200-week moving average. The technicians and sympathetic trading bots delivered with another display of trading poetry. What a fantastic way to bring the latest oversold trading period to an end.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/221004_SPY-SP500-weekly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1566\" height=\"850\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/221004_SPY-SP500-weekly.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) bounced off its 200-week moving average with poetic, picture-perfect execution.\" class=\"wp-image-61581\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/221004_SPY-SP500-weekly.png 1566w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/221004_SPY-SP500-weekly-768x417.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/221004_SPY-SP500-weekly-1536x834.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/221004_SPY-SP500-weekly-1320x716.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1566px) 100vw, 1566px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) bounced off its 200-week moving average with poetic, picture-perfect execution.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) matched the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s 2-day gain with the same 5.7% sugar high. Also like the S&amp;P 500, the tech-laden index is immediately facing overhead resistance from its 20DMA, a line of resistance that has stood firm since August. The bear market line is still floating high in the trading atmosphere for the NASDAQ.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1054\" height=\"503\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) gained 3.3% on top of the previous day's 2.3% gain. The 20DMA is now daring buyers to make another strong move.\" class=\"wp-image-61569\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1054w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x367.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1054px) 100vw, 1054px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) gained 3.3% on top of the previous day&#8217;s 2.3% gain. The 20DMA is now daring buyers to make another strong move.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) did the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ one better again. A 4.0% surge slammed IWM right into its 20DMA resistance. I am watching IWM closely for evidence that buyers still have the fuel to push higher. Failure here would immediately open the prospect for a resumption of the downtrend.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1054\" height=\"498\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"After holding its June lows, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) quickly reversed to challenge 20DMA resistance.\" class=\"wp-image-61570\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1054w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1054px) 100vw, 1054px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><em><strong>After holding its June lows, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) quickly reversed to challenge 20DMA resistance.<\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The sugar high brought an immediate end to the volatility index&#8217;s (VIX) test of the June highs. However, today&#8217;s 3.4% decline was much smaller than I would have expected for such a strong rally day. Moreover,  just as the 20DMA downtrends on the major indices remain intact, the VIX is still comfortably sitting in its uptrend in place since the August lows.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-volatility-index-VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1055\" height=\"496\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-volatility-index-VIX.png\" alt=\"The 3.4% decline for the volatility index (VIX) follows a 4.8% decline. The VIX is still in an uptrend from the August lows.\" class=\"wp-image-61571\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-volatility-index-VIX.png 1055w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-volatility-index-VIX-768x361.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1055px) 100vw, 1055px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The 3.4% decline for the volatility index (VIX) follows a 4.8% decline. The VIX is still in an uptrend from the August lows.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-a-promising-divergence\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:700\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With A Sugar High<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 26.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 25.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, surged from oversold territory at 16.7% to a close of 26.6%. The 10 percentage point surge brought an 8-day oversold period to a dramatic end. The oversold period was full of twists and turns, and my patience paid off with a number of oversold trades starting from attractive price points (the S&amp;P 500 gained just 0.8% over the course of the oversold period). This 2-day sugar high is in itself so extreme, thus I was compelled to take profits on almost all my oversold period trades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am left with a QQQ put spread and short an SPY put spread. If IWM pushes higher, I will start a fresh tranche of bullish trades. Vertical call spreads look particularly attractive around key resistance levels. Even if the indices fail at resistance, I will <strong>NOT<\/strong> flip bearish. Instead, I will await the next collection of (oversold) buying signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today&#8217;s 22.2% surge in Twitter (TWTR) was a marquee move for a day of extremes. The sugar high brought the Elon Musk buyout drama closer to an end. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/10\/04\/twitter-shares-halted-on-report-that-musk-plans-to-go-through-with-deal-at-54point20-a-share.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Musk and his legal team seem ready to capitulate to the original terms of the deal<\/a>. I heard speculation that Musk likely wanted to avoid a trial where a disposition could ask him just about any question. This is one lesson of market discipline that Musk will not escape!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, I just happened to sell an October $45.50 call option to cover a portion of my position. It was a partial hedge against some downside drama once the trial started. I harbor no regrets since a Musk pre-trial capitulation seemed like a very remote possibility. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/tag\/twtr\/\">My overall TWTR thesis<\/a> worked out, and I am gratified I remained resolute on this one. Still, I sure will miss TWTR the ticker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Here\u2019s the thing I\u2019m most curious about in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24TWTR&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$TWTR<\/a>. What is Elon hiding? Did he not want to be deposed that much? Why wouldn\u2019t he just roll the dice at trial? You never know-small chance of a win, some chance at a negotiated price cut, or he loses and ends up where he is today. \ud83e\udd14<\/p>&mdash; Karen Finerman (@karenfinerman) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/karenfinerman\/status\/1577505461326163968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-Twitter-Inc-TWTR.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1054\" height=\"496\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-Twitter-Inc-TWTR.png\" alt=\"Twitter Inc (TWTR) shareholders were treated to a particularly gratifying sugar high with a 22.2% gain that almost closed the stock at Elon Musks $54.20\/share buyout offer.\" class=\"wp-image-61574\" title=\"Twitter Inc (TWTR)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-Twitter-Inc-TWTR.png 1054w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-Twitter-Inc-TWTR-768x361.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1054px) 100vw, 1054px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>Twitter Inc (TWTR) shareholders were treated to a particularly gratifying sugar high with a 22.2% gain that almost closed the stock at Elon Musks $54.20\/share buyout offer.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1053\" height=\"497\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) sliced through the oversold threshold to close at 26.6% and a 10 percentage point gain.\" class=\"wp-image-61572\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-AT50-MMFI.png 1053w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-AT50-MMFI-768x362.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1053px) 100vw, 1053px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) sliced through the oversold threshold to close at 26.6% and a 10 percentage point gain.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1056\" height=\"499\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) won the fight to preserve 16% as support, an encouraging sign for the next pullback.\" class=\"wp-image-61573\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-AT200-MMTH.png 1056w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/100422-AT200-MMTH-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1056px) 100vw, 1056px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) won the fight to preserve 16% as support, an encouraging sign for the next pullback.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Day #1 over 20% (ending 8-day oversold period), Day #11 under 30%, Day #16 under 40%, Day #18 under 50%, Day #26 under 60%, Day #27 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long QQQ put vertical and calendar spreads, short SPY put spread, long TWTR shares and short a call option<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: September was somber. October so far is a sugar high in comparison. With the remaining pandemic era gains preserved for now, the major indices immediately face the challenge of downtrends in place since August&#8217;s peak. The conclusion of an extended (8 days long) oversold trading period means, according to history, that at &#8230; <a title=\"An October Sugar High Ends Oversold Trading &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/10\/04\/october-sugar-high-ends-oversold-trading-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61578,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1820,2832,2201,2218,909,413,65,362,1257,1258,303,931],"class_list":["post-61560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compq","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-twitter","tag-twtr","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>An October Sugar High Ends Oversold Trading<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"September was somber. 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