{"id":61414,"date":"2022-09-23T22:06:08","date_gmt":"2022-09-24T05:06:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=61414"},"modified":"2022-09-30T17:40:38","modified_gmt":"2022-10-01T00:40:38","slug":"oversold-conditions-stretch-at-edge-of-years-lows-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/23\/oversold-conditions-stretch-at-edge-of-years-lows-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Oversold Conditions Stretch At the Edge of the Year&#8217;s Lows &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Extreme trading behavior finally appeared right after <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/22\/stock-market-oversold-uninteresting-the-market-breadth\/\">I insisted the stock market looked uninteresting despite dropping into oversold conditions<\/a>. Oversold conditions did a stretch toward the year&#8217;s lows and created enough concern to finally send the volatility index soaring. Looming over the trading action all day was a collapse in the British pound (FXB) to levels last seen in 1985 (against the U.S. dollar). The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-politics-63005302\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">new government in the United Kingdom decided to drench its economy in stimulus with tax cuts and increases in government spending<\/a>. These moves will not only balloon the UK&#8217;s already large government debt, but also they directly contradict the anti-inflationary monetary tightening by the Bank of England (BoE). The resulting punishment of the British pound comes just a day after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened to try to stabilize the Japanese yen. A sense of chaos is roiling currency markets and cascading through financial markets. Yet, the extremes that grow from chaos also stretch to the next opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1566\" height=\"882\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/220923_FXB-Invesco-CurrencyShares-British-Pound-Sterling-Trust.png\" alt=\"The Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust has steadily ground lower for over a year. Was today's 3.4% collapse the crescendo or the beginning of a new phase of losses?\" class=\"wp-image-61430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/220923_FXB-Invesco-CurrencyShares-British-Pound-Sterling-Trust.png 1566w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/220923_FXB-Invesco-CurrencyShares-British-Pound-Sterling-Trust-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/220923_FXB-Invesco-CurrencyShares-British-Pound-Sterling-Trust-1536x865.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/220923_FXB-Invesco-CurrencyShares-British-Pound-Sterling-Trust-1320x743.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1566px) 100vw, 1566px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>The Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust has steadily ground lower for over a year. Was today&#8217;s 3.4% collapse the crescendo or the beginning of a new phase of losses?<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>At its intraday low, the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) dropped exactly to the June closing low. Buyers took over from there and provided some manufactured relief. The index still lost 1.7% for the day. I followed the bots and technical traders with SPY vertical and calendar call spreads. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1051\" height=\"499\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"More picture-perfect trading action as the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) bounces off its June closing low.. The index still lost 1.7% on the day.\" class=\"wp-image-61417\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-SP-500-SPY.png 1051w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-SP-500-SPY-768x365.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1051px) 100vw, 1051px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>More picture-perfect trading action as the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) bounces off its June closing low. The index still lost 1.7% on the day.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) also bounced off its intraday low, but the move was not as poetic as the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s rebound. Perhaps a test of the tech laden index&#8217;s June low is around the corner. In the meantime, I shed more QQQ put positions. I have one last October put spread.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1047\" height=\"496\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) lost 1.8% but did not quite test its June closing low.\" class=\"wp-image-61418\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1047w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x364.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1047px) 100vw, 1047px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) lost 1.8% but did not quite test its June closing low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) got close but not quite close enough to the year&#8217;s low. However, the 2.4% loss caused more technical damage for IWM as it gapped below its pre-pandemic high. Given IWM traded all day below its lower Bollinger Band (BB), the ETF of small caps looks quite stretched and extreme.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1053\" height=\"498\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) found no support at its pre-pandemic high. IWM gapped below support and lost 2.4%.\" class=\"wp-image-61419\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1053w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1053px) 100vw, 1053px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) found no support at its pre-pandemic high. IWM gapped below support and lost 2.4%.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) finally broke out of its recent trading range. A surge in the VIX stretched it all the way to 32. Yet, the faders could not help themselves. They managed to knock the VIX well off its highs. The 9.4% gain closed the VIX at a 3-month high&#8230;the June highs remain tantalizingly out of reach.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-volatility-index-VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1053\" height=\"497\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-volatility-index-VIX.png\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) finally surged but faders still pushed it well off the intraday high. The VIX gained 9.4%.\" class=\"wp-image-61420\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-volatility-index-VIX.png 1053w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-volatility-index-VIX-768x362.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1053px) 100vw, 1053px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The volatility index (VIX) finally surged but faders still pushed it well off the intraday high. The VIX gained 9.4%.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-a-promising-divergence\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:700\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With A Stretch<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 11.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (oversold day #2)<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 16.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, plunged from 17.6% to 11.8%. Combined with the surge in the VIX, trading conditions instantly became extreme enough for me to finally switch the short-term trading call out of neutral. While I would normally get aggressive with an outright bullish short-term trading call, I think the chaos spreading across the bond and currency markets warrants on-going caution. Accordingly, I tentatively followed <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">the AT50 trading rules<\/a> with a vertical and calendar spread in SPY. I also bought call options in Industrial Select Sector SPDR&nbsp;Fund (XLI) and the SPDR&nbsp;S&amp;P&nbsp;Metals and Mining ETF (XME). XME tested its June low while XLI stretched just past its June low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The churn in the stock market continues to create rapid shifts in market sentiment. When I wrote about my disinterest in the market, I thought languid conditions would persist with the VIX continuing to confound. Instead, Friday&#8217;s extremes kicked me into oversold trading action. From here, further extremes get me incrementally more aggressive on bets to the upside per the AT50 trading rules. My upside expectations are currently tightly capped by the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s bear market line.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1052\" height=\"498\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) closed right at its low point of the year as oversold trading reached day number 2.\" class=\"wp-image-61421\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-AT50-MMFI.png 1052w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-AT50-MMFI-768x364.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1052px) 100vw, 1052px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) closed right at its low point of the year as oversold trading reached day number 2.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1055\" height=\"493\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) gapped down for a loss of 4 percentage points.\" class=\"wp-image-61422\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-AT200-MMTH.png 1055w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092322-AT200-MMTH-768x359.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1055px) 100vw, 1055px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) gapped down for a loss of 4 percentage points.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> Day #2 under 20% (oversold), Day #4 under 30%, Day #9 under 40%, Day #11 under 50%, Day #19 under 60%, Day #20 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long QQQ put vertical and calendar spreads, short SPY put spread<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: Extreme trading behavior finally appeared right after I insisted the stock market looked uninteresting despite dropping into oversold conditions. Oversold conditions did a stretch toward the year&#8217;s lows and created enough concern to finally send the volatility index soaring. Looming over the trading action all day was a collapse in the British &#8230; <a title=\"Oversold Conditions Stretch At the Edge of the Year&#8217;s Lows &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/23\/oversold-conditions-stretch-at-edge-of-years-lows-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61429,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,483,20,491,62,237],"tags":[1820,2832,128,2201,276,127,384,2218,909,413,65,362,2303,303,931],"class_list":["post-61414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-forex","category-oversold","category-technical-analysis","category-united-kingdom","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-british-pound","tag-compq","tag-currencyshares-british-pound-sterling-trust","tag-fxb","tag-gbpusd","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-trading-call-change","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oversold Conditions Stretch At Edge of Year\u2019s Lows \u2013 The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oversold conditions did a stretch toward the year\u2019s lows and created enough concern to finally send the volatility index soaring.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/23\/oversold-conditions-stretch-at-edge-of-years-lows-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oversold Conditions Stretch At the Edge of the Year&#039;s Lows - The Market Breadth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Oversold conditions did a stretch toward the year\u2019s lows and created enough concern to finally send the volatility index soaring.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/23\/oversold-conditions-stretch-at-edge-of-years-lows-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-09-24T05:06:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-10-01T00:40:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/stretch-1.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"768\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Oversold Conditions Stretch At the Edge of the Year&#039;s Lows - The Market Breadth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Oversold conditions did a stretch toward the year\u2019s lows and created enough concern to finally send the volatility index soaring.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/stretch-1.jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/09\\\/23\\\/oversold-conditions-stretch-at-edge-of-years-lows-the-market-breadth\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/09\\\/23\\\/oversold-conditions-stretch-at-edge-of-years-lows-the-market-breadth\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"headline\":\"Oversold Conditions Stretch At the Edge of the Year&#8217;s Lows &#8211; 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