{"id":61391,"date":"2022-09-22T17:18:08","date_gmt":"2022-09-23T00:18:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=61391"},"modified":"2022-09-23T23:05:04","modified_gmt":"2022-09-24T06:05:04","slug":"stock-market-oversold-uninteresting-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/22\/stock-market-oversold-uninteresting-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"A Stock Market Oversold and Uninteresting &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sellers followed through with yesterday&#8217;s post-Fed selling. With losses across the board, market breadth dropped into oversold trading conditions. Yet, <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/21\/feds-hawks-escort-stocks-right-back-to-bear-market-the-market-breadth\/\">as I explained could be the case<\/a>, the stock market looks uninteresting. Because the major indices are fresh off important breakdowns, substantial downside risk remains. Because the volatility index actually closed down on the day, negative sentiment in the market does not appear extreme. Since <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">the AT50 trading rules<\/a> trigger off extreme market conditions, I am doing something I think is unprecedented for me when trading around an oversold period. More on that news when I explain the short-term trading call.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>S&amp;P 500 (SPY) lost 0.8% and closed at its third lowest point of the year. With a new bear market period confirmed, the index looks on track for testing the June lows. The trend and trajectory makes the S&amp;P 500 look uninteresting from the long side. I took profits on a calendar put spread which left the rest of my bearish positions sitting in various QQQ put spreads.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1049\" height=\"497\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) confirmed a new bear market period with follow-through selling to a 0.8% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-61396\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-SP-500-SPY.png 1049w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-SP-500-SPY-768x364.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1049px) 100vw, 1049px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) confirmed a new bear market period with follow-through selling to a 0.8% loss.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) last closed at these prices in late June. The day&#8217;s 1.4% loss placed the tech-laden index on top of its lower Bollinger Band (BB). This milestone signifies the resumption of the slide that was interrupted by <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/10\/synchronized-breakout-flips-script-on-sentiment-the-market-breadth\/\">the market&#8217;s premature celebration and false breakout<\/a> earlier in the month. The NASDAQ remains on track to test its June lows and thus looks uninteresting from the long side.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1055\" height=\"498\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) closed at a new 3-month low with a 1.4% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-61399\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1.png 1055w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1055px) 100vw, 1055px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) closed at a new 3-month low with a 1.4% loss.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is on track to retest its pre-pandemic high. The 2.3% loss on the day was the worst across the three major indices and planted IWM at a fresh 2-month low. Perhaps IWM will look interesting for a speculative bet on a rebound off the pre-pandemic high as support.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1055\" height=\"502\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) lost 2.3% and stretched closer to its pre-pandemic high.\" class=\"wp-image-61398\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1055w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x365.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1055px) 100vw, 1055px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) lost 2.3% and stretched closer to its pre-pandemic high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) continues to confound. Despite the extended selling in the stock market, the VIX actually LOST 2.3%. As a result, the VIX remains locked in a 1-month trading range. This behavior makes speculating on a bounce from oversold conditions uninteresting.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-volatility-index-VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1054\" height=\"497\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-volatility-index-VIX.png\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) lost 2.3% and remains locked in a trading range.\" class=\"wp-image-61400\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-volatility-index-VIX.png 1054w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-volatility-index-VIX-768x362.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1054px) 100vw, 1054px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The volatility index (VIX) lost 2.3% and remains locked in a trading range.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-a-promising-divergence\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:700\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call While Oversold and Uninteresting<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 17.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (oversold day #1)<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 21.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, closed at 17.6% and ended the day in oversold territory. While <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">the AT50 trading rules<\/a> recommend covering most or all shorts and getting bullish, I am doing neither. This decision is unprecedented for me as I prefer the aggressive option for speculating on a rebound out of oversold conditions. Instead, I am choosing the conservative route by waiting for my favorite technical indicator to exit oversold conditions AND waiting for the S&amp;P 500 to end its latest bear market. Accordingly I am staying neutral on the stock market. I will flip the script and get aggressively bullish if the VIX surges during this oversold period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brian Kelly offered a fascinating explanation for the market&#8217;s weakness by pointing at the Japanese yen (FXY). The Bank of Japan held rates negative yet again but decided to try having its cake and eating it too with <a href=\"https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/Business\/Markets\/Currencies\/Without-rate-hike-impact-of-Japan-s-yen-intervention-likely-limited\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a currency intervention to stop the bleeding in the yen<\/a>. Kelly claimed the BoJ had to sell U.S. treasuries to generate dollar sales against the yen. The subsequent spike in Treasury yields pressured stocks. While the story fits the trading action, the Bank of Japan actually has plenty of dollars on tap to sell. Bloomberg reported that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-09-22\/japan-has-a-pile-of-dollars-it-can-tap-before-selling-treasuries\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the Bank of Japan has over $110B stashed in the Federal Reserve&#8217;s Foreign and International Monetary Authorities repo pool<\/a>. Still, the on-going prospects of a major central bank intervening in currency markets adds yet one more distortion to financial markets which are trying to adjust the Fed&#8217;s rapid unwind of its last policy distortion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Making sense of the market moves post-Fed: Our traders <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BKBrianKelly?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@BKBrianKelly<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/karenfinerman?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@karenfinerman<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RiskReversal?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@RiskReversal<\/a> weigh in on after-effects of the &#39;move heard around the world&#39; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8DQCg4mgVR\">pic.twitter.com\/8DQCg4mgVR<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC&#39;s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBCFastMoney\/status\/1573058801145712646?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 22, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1055\" height=\"499\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61401\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-AT50-MMFI.png 1055w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-AT50-MMFI-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1055px) 100vw, 1055px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) closed with a &#8220;day&#8217;s range&#8221; of oversold trading conditions.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1052\" height=\"501\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61402\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-AT200-MMTH.png 1052w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/092222-AT200-MMTH-768x366.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1052px) 100vw, 1052px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>The AT200 (MMTH) confirmed its return to a downtrend with a 2-month closing low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> Day #1 under 20% (underperiod ending 56 days over 20%), Day #3 under 30%, Day #8 under 40%, Day #10 under 50%, Day #18 under 60%, Day #19 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long QQQ put vertical and calendar spreads, short SPY put spread<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: Sellers followed through with yesterday&#8217;s post-Fed selling. With losses across the board, market breadth dropped into oversold trading conditions. Yet, as I explained could be the case, the stock market looks uninteresting. Because the major indices are fresh off important breakdowns, substantial downside risk remains. Because the volatility index actually closed down &#8230; <a title=\"A Stock Market Oversold and Uninteresting &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/22\/stock-market-oversold-uninteresting-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61394,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,204,491,62,982],"tags":[1820,2832,420,2201,421,513,2218,909,138,413,65,362,303,931],"class_list":["post-61391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex","category-japan","category-oversold","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-bank-of-japan","tag-compq","tag-currency-intervention","tag-fxy","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-japanese-yen","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Stock Market Oversold and Uninteresting - The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The stock market looks uninteresting despite oversold trading conditions. 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