{"id":61264,"date":"2022-09-10T17:35:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-11T00:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=61264"},"modified":"2022-09-10T17:42:22","modified_gmt":"2022-09-11T00:42:22","slug":"synchronized-breakout-flips-script-on-sentiment-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/10\/synchronized-breakout-flips-script-on-sentiment-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"A Synchronized Breakout Flips the Script On Sentiment &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The confluence of market-moving news the last two days of the week resolved into a stock market looking incrementally healthier. A synchronized breakout above resistance at respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) flipped the script on the negative sentiment that dominated trading going into last week. While weakness in the U.S. dollar from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/japan-finmin-says-no-options-ruled-out-forex-boj-kuroda-meets-pm-2022-09-09\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bank of Japan jawboning<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/09\/08\/fed-chair-powell-vows-to-raise-rates-to-fight-inflation-until-the-job-is-done.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a reiteration from Powell about the Fed&#8217;s anti-inflation determination<\/a> occupied the headlines, a long-time reader brought economic news to my attention that I consider most important of all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) that further contradicted the notion that the U.S. economy is already in <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/07\/10\/why-wall-street-wants-a-recession\/\">the recession that Wall Street wants<\/a>. After 3 monthly declines, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/us-service-sector-keeps-momentum-august-price-pressures-ease-ism-survey-2022-09-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the PMI increased two straight months with August&#8217;s data<\/a>. With pricing pressures apparently easing, &#8220;peak Fed&#8221; sentiment could follow the Fed&#8217;s anticipated 75 basis points hike later this month. If so, the market could enjoy a (surprising) goldilocks scenario of an economy that managed to survive aggressive tightening with the worst of rate hikes in the rearview mirror. Even if new economic trouble lies ahead, near-term anticipation of &#8220;peak Fed&#8221; could be sufficient to keep the market floating higher going into the September Fed meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) led the way forward with the synchronized breakout. Three straight days of buying ended with a 1.5% gain on Friday and a 50DMA breakout. The failure of sellers to plunge the S&amp;P 500 back into bear market territory signals the potential for a sustainable higher low. This new momentum puts the index on track to rechallenge its 200DMA resistance in coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"497\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) broke 50DMA resistance with a 1.5% gain. The index closed right on top of its May, 2021 low.\" class=\"wp-image-61271\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-SP-500-SPY.png 1050w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-SP-500-SPY-768x364.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) broke 50DMA resistance with a 1.5% gain. The index closed right on top of its May, 2021 low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) also enjoyed three straight days of buying. A 2.1% gain on Friday punched the tech-laden index above resistance at its converged 50DMA and September, 2020 highs. Follow-through buying would confirm the breakout and put the NASDAQ in play for a fresh challenge of its bear market line.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1053\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) broke through 50DMA resistance with a 2.1% gain. The NASDAQ also closed above its September, 2020 high.\" class=\"wp-image-61272\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1053w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x365.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1053px) 100vw, 1053px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) broke through 50DMA resistance with a 2.1% gain. The NASDAQ also closed above its September, 2020 high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) contributed the most convincing move to the synchronized breakout. IWM gapped above 50DMA resistance and kept moving higher from there. I moved quickly after the open to get an October call spread in place to play a run toward 200DMA resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1052\" height=\"499\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gapped above its 50DMA resistance and never looked back. IWM closed the day with a 2.1% gain.\" class=\"wp-image-61273\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1052w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x364.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1052px) 100vw, 1052px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gapped above its 50DMA resistance and never looked back. IWM closed the day with a 2.1% gain.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) gave up its breakout. Friday&#8217;s 3.5% loss opens up a bigger porthole for bulls and buyers. A return to a test of the all-important 20 level is now in the cards.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-volatility-index-VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1051\" height=\"497\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-volatility-index-VIX.png\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) suffered a fresh breakdown and looks set to rechallenge the 20 level.\" class=\"wp-image-61274\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-volatility-index-VIX.png 1051w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-volatility-index-VIX-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1051px) 100vw, 1051px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The volatility index (VIX) suffered a fresh breakdown and looks set to rechallenge the 20 level.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-a-promising-divergence\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:700\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With A Synchronized Breakout<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 52.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 31.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, underlined the synchronized breakout with a convincing surge from 44% to 52%. The surge confirmed <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/07\/overdue-relief-rally-stretches-markets-toward-key-resistance-the-market-breadth\/\">the &#8220;close enough to oversold&#8221;<\/a> bottom of the latest market cycle. Accordingly, as planned, I flipped the script on my short-term trading call from (cautiously) bearish to neutral without waiting for confirmation of the synchronized breakout. While I moved quickly to buy the IWM call spread, I also added one last bearish position. I paired the surviving long side of my QQQ calendar put spread with one more put. I see no reason to make any more bearish moves until either a) a fresh 50DMA breakdown and\/or b) another failed test of overhead resistance at the 200DMA by the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In another flip of the script, Apple Inc (AAPL) fell behind the market on a technical basis. Its failure to join the synchronized breakout signals that buyers still have a little more work ahead to create a completely convincing flip of the script on sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1052\" height=\"498\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-Apple-Inc.-AAPL.png\" alt=\"Sellers took a day to fade Apple's product release news, but buyers came back again to close the week with a 1.9% gain. Apple Inc (AAPL) still lagged the indices by stopping just short of 50DMA resistance.\" class=\"wp-image-61270\" title=\"Apple Inc. (AAPL)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-Apple-Inc.-AAPL.png 1052w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-Apple-Inc.-AAPL-768x364.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1052px) 100vw, 1052px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>Sellers took a day to fade Apple&#8217;s product release news, but buyers came back again to close the week with a 1.9% gain. Apple Inc (AAPL) still lagged the indices by stopping just short of 50DMA resistance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1055\" height=\"497\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) surged another 8 percentage points and confirmed &quot;close enough to oversold&quot; bottom.\" class=\"wp-image-61275\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-AT50-MMFI.png 1055w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-AT50-MMFI-768x362.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1055px) 100vw, 1055px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) surged another 8 percentage points and confirmed &#8220;close enough to oversold&#8221; bottom.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1055\" height=\"494\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) punched higher in a convincing attempt to end the downtrend one more time.\" class=\"wp-image-61276\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-AT200-MMTH.png 1055w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/090922-AT200-MMTH-768x360.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1055px) 100vw, 1055px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) punched higher in a convincing attempt to end the downtrend one more time.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> Day #48 over 20%, Day #42 over 30%, Day #3 over 40%, Day #1 over 50% (overperiod ending 7 days under 50%), Day #9 under 60% (underperiod), Day #10 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long QQQ puts, long SPY put, long IWM call spread<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: The confluence of market-moving news the last two days of the week resolved into a stock market looking incrementally healthier. A synchronized breakout above resistance at respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) flipped the script on the negative sentiment that dominated trading going into last week. While weakness in the U.S. dollar from &#8230; <a title=\"A Synchronized Breakout Flips the Script On Sentiment &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/10\/synchronized-breakout-flips-script-on-sentiment-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61300,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,219,62],"tags":[250,534,1820,2832,2201,2218,909,413,65,362,2303,303,931],"class_list":["post-61264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breakout","category-high-tech","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compq","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-trading-call-change","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Synchronized Breakout Flips the Script On Sentiment \u2013 The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A synchronized breakout above 50DMAs flipped the script on the negative sentiment that dominated trading going into last week.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/10\/synchronized-breakout-flips-script-on-sentiment-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Synchronized Breakout Flips the Script On Sentiment - The Market Breadth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A synchronized breakout above 50DMAs flipped the script on the negative sentiment that dominated trading going into last week.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/09\/10\/synchronized-breakout-flips-script-on-sentiment-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-09-11T00:35:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-09-11T00:42:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/synchronized-breakout.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"964\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"A Synchronized Breakout Flips the Script On Sentiment - The Market Breadth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"A synchronized breakout above 50DMAs flipped the script on the negative sentiment that dominated trading going into last week.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/09\\\/10\\\/synchronized-breakout-flips-script-on-sentiment-the-market-breadth\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/09\\\/10\\\/synchronized-breakout-flips-script-on-sentiment-the-market-breadth\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"headline\":\"A Synchronized Breakout Flips the Script On Sentiment &#8211; 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