{"id":61142,"date":"2022-08-26T18:41:26","date_gmt":"2022-08-27T01:41:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=61142"},"modified":"2024-09-07T08:27:40","modified_gmt":"2024-09-07T15:27:40","slug":"bears-push-bulls-down-the-jackson-hole-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/08\/26\/bears-push-bulls-down-the-jackson-hole-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Bears Push Bulls Down the Jackson Hole &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Jerome Powell, and the Federal Reserve, remained resolute with the anti-inflation rhetoric. The stock market hated it. Slowing growth, recession fears, and hopes for &#8220;peak inflation&#8221; are still not producing <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/07\/10\/why-wall-street-wants-a-recession\/\">the result Wall Street wants<\/a>: a Federal Reserve backing down from monetary tightening, also known as &#8220;the pivot.&#8221; The bears seized the opportunity in disappointment by pushing bulls down the Jackson Hole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/powell20220826a.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">his remarks at the annual confab<\/a>, Powell did his best to make the Fed&#8217;s hawkishness abundantly clear: &#8220;Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct&#8230;Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.&#8221; Powell went on to caution us that the work ahead will &#8220;bring some pain to households and businesses,&#8221; but such is the cost for longer-term price stability. For the &#8220;peak inflation&#8221; crowd, Powell warned that &#8220;high inflation has continued to spread through the economy.&#8221; There was nothing nice in Jackson Hole. The market&#8217;s accompanying plunge underlined the dour news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Jackson Hole Symposium Opening Remarks 2022\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/vhMRynjm3CI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With a 3.4% loss, the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) plunged its way into a reversal of July&#8217;s bullish breakout above the May, 2021 low. The failed test of resistance at the 200-day moving average (DMA) (the blue line) is a distant memory. With the lower Bollinger Band (BB) opening downward, gravity is tugging hard on the S&amp;P 500 and guiding it to an important test of uptrending 50DMA (the red line below) support. A breakdown below the 50DMA would push the index further down the hole toward a test of the bear market line. Recall that a bear market defines as a 20% loss from an all-time high.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1059\" height=\"496\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) finished reversing its breakout above the May, 2021 low with a 3.4% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-61150\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-SP-500-SPY.png 1059w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-SP-500-SPY-768x360.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1059px) 100vw, 1059px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) finished reversing its breakout above the May, 2021 low with a 3.4% loss.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) is already in the hole with a bear market fully entrenched. The uptrending 50DMA is converging on important support from the September, 2020 high. A breakdown below here would push the tech-laden index even deeper in the hole and set up an eventual test of the June low.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"496\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) confirmed resistance at its 20DMA with a 3.9% loss and looks set to test support at its September, 2020 high.\" class=\"wp-image-61151\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1050w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) confirmed resistance at its 20DMA with a 3.9% loss and looks set to test support at its September, 2020 high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) sank deeper into the hole of a bear market with a 3.3% loss. The plunge ended a 1-day fakeout above the bear market line. Now the ETF of small caps looks set to test uptrending 50DMA support. Per <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/08\/22\/and-then-there-was-just-one-the-market-breadth\/\">my short-term trading call<\/a>, I faded IWM after it rallied off Monday&#8217;s drop with a September $190\/$180 put spread. (I am still open to flipping into a buy at the 50DMA).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1053\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) reentered bear market territory with a 3.3% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-61152\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1053w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x365.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1053px) 100vw, 1053px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) reentered bear market territory with a 3.3% loss.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) left no doubt that its downtrend ended last week. A 17.3% surge broke out the VIX to a 5-week high. If not for the extreme one day move, I would expect a swift drive toward the June highs. Instead, the temptation for the VIX faders may be large enough to knock the VIX down before it can continue higher.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-volatility-index-VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1048\" height=\"495\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-volatility-index-VIX.png\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) broke out to a 5-week high with a 17.3% surge.\" class=\"wp-image-61153\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-volatility-index-VIX.png 1048w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-volatility-index-VIX-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1048px) 100vw, 1048px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The volatility index (VIX) broke out to a 5-week high with a 17.3% surge.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-a-promising-divergence\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:700\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call for a Push Down the Jackson Hole<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 60.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (ended 1-day overbought period)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 32.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: bearish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, dropped almost 13 percentage points from a 1-day overbought period. That return to overbought conditions was a big fakeout. The market&#8217;s rebound into Powell&#8217;s speech at Jackson Hole was a bizarre sight and seemed to imply buyers knew &#8220;something.&#8221; By the time Powell dropped the hammer, buyers had spent up the fuel needed to brace against the push of the bears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Friday&#8217;s selling was so extreme that a Monday rebound will not surprise me. However, my short-term trading call remains firmly bearish. I remain inclined to fade rallies. I was hoping for a rally continuation on Friday for fresh fade opportunities. Instead, I rushed into Sept $95 put options on Industrial Select Sector SPDR&nbsp;Fund (XLI) given its fresh 200DMA breakdown. Given the premium I paid, I paired that position with a $230\/$240 call spread on VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) given its test of 50DMA support. I set up this pairs trade for quickly taking profits on SMH in case of a sharp relief rally rebound. The XLI puts should increase in value rapidly if the sell-off continues next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, I remain net bearish in my short-term positioning. My next round of profit-taking to the downside will come on tests of support. I will also refresh bearish trades on confirmed breakdowns below these support levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bearish push down Jackson Hole sharply adjusted rate expectations for 2023. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/interest-rates\/countdown-to-fomc.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The CME FedWatch<\/a> now shows a 61% chance for a 75 basis points hike in September and no expectations for a rate cut next year. A week prior the market assigned a 53% chance for a 50 bps rate hike. The market is taking Powell seriously again for now.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"877\" height=\"583\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220827_target-rate-probabilities-for-220921-Fed-meeting.jpg\" alt=\"Jackson Hole completed a sharp shift in expectations for the target rate probabilities for the September 21, 2022 Fed meeting.\" class=\"wp-image-61170\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220827_target-rate-probabilities-for-220921-Fed-meeting.jpg 877w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220827_target-rate-probabilities-for-220921-Fed-meeting-768x511.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 877px) 100vw, 877px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Jackson Hole completed a sharp shift in expectations for the target rate probabilities for the September 21, 2022 Fed meeting.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>With Powell projecting economic pain in the short-term, ain&#8217;t nothin&#8217; goin&#8217; on but the rent (shout out to Gwen Guthrie)&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Lancelot feat. Ngaiire - Ain&#039;t Nothin&#039; Goin&#039; on But the Rent\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/-GeiEWHmsKI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1053\" height=\"498\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) plunged from a 1-day overbought period to close at 60.9%.\" class=\"wp-image-61154\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-AT50-MMFI.png 1053w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-AT50-MMFI-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1053px) 100vw, 1053px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) plunged from a 1-day overbought period to close at 60.9%.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"494\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) returned to its primary downtrend line and looks set to continue lower.\" class=\"wp-image-61155\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-AT200-MMTH.png 1050w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/082622-AT200-MMTH-768x361.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) returned to its primary downtrend line and looks set to continue lower.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> Day #39 over 20%, Day #33 over 30%, Day #26 over 40%, Day #26 over 50%, Day #20 over 60%, Day #1 under 70% (ending 1 day overbought)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long QQQ put spread, long IWM put spread, long XLI puts, long SMH call spread<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: Jerome Powell, and the Federal Reserve, remained resolute with the anti-inflation rhetoric. The stock market hated it. Slowing growth, recession fears, and hopes for &#8220;peak inflation&#8221; are still not producing the result Wall Street wants: a Federal Reserve backing down from monetary tightening, also known as &#8220;the pivot.&#8221; The bears seized the &#8230; <a title=\"Bears Push Bulls Down the Jackson Hole &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/08\/26\/bears-push-bulls-down-the-jackson-hole-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61176,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,483,59,58,62],"tags":[1820,2832,2201,2225,2218,909,719,115,413,65,362,303,931],"class_list":["post-61142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-economy","category-federal-reserve","category-technical-analysis","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compq","tag-fed-fund-futures","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-jackson-hole","tag-monetary-policy","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bears Push Bulls Down the Jackson Hole - The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jay Powell&#039;s curt hawkishness set markets aback. 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