{"id":60601,"date":"2022-07-16T22:15:00","date_gmt":"2022-07-17T05:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=60601"},"modified":"2022-07-17T07:19:13","modified_gmt":"2022-07-17T14:19:13","slug":"apple-bear-market-tease-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/07\/16\/apple-bear-market-tease-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Apple&#8217;s Bear Market Tease &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week&#8217;s scene from the summer of discontent included hand-wringing over <a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2022\/07\/13\/so-much-for-peak-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the June inflation report<\/a>. However, almost &#8220;quietly&#8221;, Apple Inc (APPL) pulled off a technical breakout contrary to the current bear market (especially for technology stocks). The previous week, AAPL confirmed a breakout above resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below) but proceeded to drift and follow the still downtrending 50DMA lower. Last Thursday, AAPL soared 2.1% off 50DMA support. Friday&#8217;s 1.2% gain printed a firmer confirmation of the 50DMA breakout. AAPL was last this high 6 weeks ago. This move places Apple among <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/07\/07\/stock-chart-reviews-bear-market-green-shoots\/\">the bear market green shoots<\/a> I described almost two weeks ago. However, with the NASDAQ still stuck in a bear market, this move also looks like Apple&#8217;s bear market tease. Is it too good to be true?<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-Apple-Inc.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1056\" height=\"501\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-Apple-Inc.png\" alt=\"Apple Inc (AAPL) printed two straight days of gains to confirm 50DMA support at a 6-week high.\" class=\"wp-image-60631\" title=\"Apple Inc (AAPL)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-Apple-Inc.png 1056w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-Apple-Inc-768x364.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1056px) 100vw, 1056px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>Apple Inc (AAPL) printed two straight days of gains to confirm 50DMA support at a 6-week high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) ended the week with its third appearance above bear market territory in the last month. Apple&#8217;s bear market tease suggests to me that the index may finally be ready to challenge overhead resistance at its 50DMA. Still, I sold my latest tranche of SPY shares into the 1.9% gain to trim the bullish side of my short-term trading exposure. Will the third time really be the charm?<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-SP-500-SPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1060\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-SP-500-SPY.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) jumped 1.9% to end the week punching its way out of bear market territory. Apple's bear market tease helped wake up the index.\" class=\"wp-image-60632\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-SP-500-SPY.png 1060w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-SP-500-SPY-768x362.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1060px) 100vw, 1060px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) jumped 1.9% to end the week punching its way out of bear market territory. Apple&#8217;s bear market tease helped wake up the index.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) is still limping along below 50DMA resistance. This churn really makes Apple&#8217;s bear market tease so tantalizing. The tech-laden index needs to contend with 50DMA resistance and then the recent double-top from the last two peaks.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1059\" height=\"496\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) gained 1.8% and looks set for another challenge of overhead, downtrending 50DMA resistance.\" class=\"wp-image-60633\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1059w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x360.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1059px) 100vw, 1059px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) gained 1.8% and looks set for another challenge of overhead, downtrending 50DMA resistance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The drift downward for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) took the ETF of small cap stocks right back to support at its pre-pandemic high. I am still clinging to a call option, so I am now looking for continuation to take IWM back to 50DMA resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1059\" height=\"501\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained 2.1% in a bid to hold support at its pre-pandemic high.\" class=\"wp-image-60641\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1.png 1059w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1059px) 100vw, 1059px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained 2.1% in a bid to hold support at its pre-pandemic high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) quickly returned to limping along. Friday&#8217;s stock market rally took the VIX right to the June lows. This test adds to the tantalizing feel of Apple&#8217;s bear market tease. If the VIX breaks through the June lows, the market should get a fresh whiff of anti bear market feeling and follow Apple higher.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-volatility-index-VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1057\" height=\"496\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-volatility-index-VIX.png\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) lost 8.3% and tested its June lows.\" class=\"wp-image-60637\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-volatility-index-VIX.png 1057w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-volatility-index-VIX-768x360.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1057px) 100vw, 1057px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The volatility index (VIX) lost 8.3% and tested its June lows.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-a-promising-divergence\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:700\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With Apple&#8217;s Bear Market Tease<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 37.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 19.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, jumped over 6 percentage points and confirmed broad based buying pressure on Friday. The surge was like a delayed reaction to Apple&#8217;s surge the prior day. If the stock market continues taking cues from Apple, its bear market tease could go from tantalizing to satisfying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking of satisfying, Fundstrat&#8217;s Tom Lee was back to talking big bullish game on CNBC. Despite his fund&#8217;s technician calling for a lower low on the market still to come in July, Lee is confident in a strong second half of the year. Talk about a tease! I still have every reason to stay short-term neutral. A lower low on the market should deliver the oversold conditions that would flip me back to bullish. I would love to ride that bullishness for the rest of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All eyes on Apple? The company reports earnings on July 28th&#8230;a day after the Fed issues <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/calendar.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">its next missive on monetary policy<\/a>. What a combination!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The market is putting the Fed into a position to be more measured, says Fundstrat&#039;s Tom Lee\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XdNg_hrzDVs?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1056\" height=\"499\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-60636\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-AT50-MMFI.png 1056w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-AT50-MMFI-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1056px) 100vw, 1056px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their 50DMAs, fell back in a move that seems to signal the end of upward momentum for now.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1053\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-60638\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-AT200-MMTH.png 1053w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/071622-AT200-MMTH-768x365.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1053px) 100vw, 1053px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH), the percentage of stocks trading above their 200DMAs, remains stalled between 17% and 21%.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> Day #12 over 20%, Day #6 over 30% (overperiod), Day #22 under 40%, Day #66 under 50%, Day #71 under 60%, Day #342 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a>, Credit for photo of bears eating apples: @SteveWinterPhoto as seen on twitter and <a href=\"https:\/\/people.com\/pets\/bears-make-happy-noises-over-apples-video\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">People Magazine<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long QQQ put spread, long SPY call spread, long IWM call<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary Last week&#8217;s scene from the summer of discontent included hand-wringing over the June inflation report. However, almost &#8220;quietly&#8221;, Apple Inc (APPL) pulled off a technical breakout contrary to the current bear market (especially for technology stocks). The previous week, AAPL confirmed a breakout above resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the &#8230; <a title=\"Apple&#8217;s Bear Market Tease &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/07\/16\/apple-bear-market-tease-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":60646,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[393,482,219,511,62],"tags":[250,534,1820,2832,2201,2218,909,413,65,362,2649,303,931],"class_list":["post-60601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyst-coverage","category-breakout","category-high-tech","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compq","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-tom-lee","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Apple&#039;s Bear Market Tease - The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Almost quietly, AAPL pulled off a breakout. 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With the NASDAQ still stuck in a bear market, this move looks like Apple\u2019s bear market tease.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/07\/16\/apple-bear-market-tease-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-07-17T05:15:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-07-17T14:19:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/220716-Apples-Bear-Market-Tease.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"960\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Apple&#039;s Bear Market Tease - The Market Breadth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Almost quietly, AAPL pulled off a breakout. 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