{"id":59915,"date":"2022-05-30T14:48:22","date_gmt":"2022-05-30T21:48:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=59915"},"modified":"2022-06-04T09:28:12","modified_gmt":"2022-06-04T16:28:12","slug":"200dma-signal-another-way-to-find-bottom-for-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/30\/200dma-signal-another-way-to-find-bottom-for-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"The 200DMA Signal: Another Way to Find A Bottom for this Bear Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Almost seven years ago, I developed the “200DMA Signal”<\/a> to provide a relative measure of major bottoms for the S&P 500 (SPY). The 200-day moving average (DMA) is a long-term measure of a price trend, so it provides a robust assessment of prevailing trends. The 200DMA Signal triggers when the S&P 500’s 200DMA suffers its first 5-day negative change after an all-time high. Such a move indicates the start of a downtrend for the 200DMA. Selling must become particularly strong and extended in time to push the 200DMA into a downtrend given the long-term positive bias to the stock market. Indeed, the 200DMA Signal has only been triggered 23 times since 1956. The 23rd time happened on April 26, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 (SPY) 200DMA Signal triggered on April 26, 2022 and ushered in the first long-term downtrend since January’s all-time high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The 200DMA Signal was particularly significant for this cycle because it was triggered shortly after the S&P 500 failed at 200DMA resistance<\/a>. That failure preceded the wave of selling that eventually took the index down to bear market territory (defined as a 20% loss from the all-time high). Note that while the NASDAQ closed in bear market territory<\/a>, the S&P 500 never did so. Its lowest close was -18.7% off the all-time high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using the 200DMA Signal<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The table below shows all the 200DMA Signal triggers since 1956. The first column provides the all-time high that proceeded the signal dated by the second column. The next all-time high is in the third column. The next two columns measure the losses associated with the 200DMA Signal. The fourth column shows the S&P 500’s closing loss on the day of the signal (again, dated by the second column). The fifth column shows the maximum closing loss between all-time highs. The “warning ratio” in the last column is 100 times the fourth column divided by the fifth column. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The<\/a>
The 200DMA Signal helps determine relative prospects for a bottom after the trendline turns negative following an all-time high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The warning ratio measures the share of the maximum loss between all-time highs achieved by the time of the DMA Signal. The closer to 100, the closer the maximum loss occurred at the time the DMA Signal triggered. The majority (51%) of DMA Signal triggers produced warning ratios higher than 60. The histogram below shows this distribution where the x-axis represents the top of a 10-point range. For example, 70 on the axis represents the range 60-70, exclusive of 60.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Distribution<\/a>
Distribution of Warning Ratios for the 200DMA Signal<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

When the S&P 500 hit its maximum closing loss on May 19th, the warning ratio hit 70. If that marked the bottom of this selling cycle before the next all-time high, then this cycle sits right on the edge of 33% of DMA Signals. Those are “decent” odds to bet on a bottom, but there remains a decent chance that the S&P 500 will suffer one more sell-off to lower lows before the next all-time high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using Market Breadth for A Market Bottom<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As long as the S&P 500 trades above its May 2021 high, I am willing to bet that the index has hit a bottom ahead of the next all-time high (whenever that happens). However, on a fresh breakdown, I will brace for the warning ratio going as low as 60. A warning ratio of 60 represents a 21.7% loss from the all-time high or a close of 3755.71. A bottom at that point would confirm approximate support at the March 2021 lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the way down, my favorite technical indicator for measuring market breadth<\/a> will come in handy as the final arbiter of bottoming potential. A breakdown below the May, 2021 would shift my latest trading call<\/a> from cautiously bullish to neutral. I would flip bullish again – anticipating a fresh bottom – once market breadth shifted down to oversold trading conditions. I cover these technicals in The Market Breath series<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Almost seven years ago, I developed the “200DMA Signal” to provide a relative measure of major bottoms for the S&P 500 (SPY). The 200-day moving average (DMA) is a long-term measure of a price trend, so it provides a robust assessment of prevailing trends. The 200DMA Signal triggers when the S&P 500’s 200DMA suffers its … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2830,1303,483,997,511,62,1210],"tags":[2108,65,362],"class_list":["post-59915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-above-the-50-trading-model","category-bottom","category-breakdown","category-sp-500-analysis","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-model","tag-200dma-signal","tag-sp-500","tag-spy"],"yoast_head":"\nThe 200DMA Signal: Another Way to Find A Bottom for this Bear Market<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The 200DMA Signal triggers when the S&P 500's 200DMA suffers its first 5-day 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