{"id":59867,"date":"2022-05-23T21:39:42","date_gmt":"2022-05-24T04:39:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=59867"},"modified":"2022-05-23T21:45:15","modified_gmt":"2022-05-24T04:45:15","slug":"oversold-ends-with-dimon-push-and-snap-pull-the-market-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/23\/oversold-ends-with-dimon-push-and-snap-pull-the-market-review\/","title":{"rendered":"Oversold Ends With A Dimon Push and A Snap Pull &#8211; The Market Review"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/YXzOehmS\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/YXzOehmS\/\" alt=\"JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM) pushed higher 6.2% with CEO Jamie Dimon spreading cheer about the U.S. economy. JPM closed above its downtrending 20DMA for the first time since March.\" title=\"JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co. (JPM)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/YXzOehmS\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co<\/a> (JPM) pushed higher 6.2% with CEO Jamie Dimon spreading cheer about the U.S. economy. JPM closed above its downtrending 20DMA for the first time since March.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-commentary\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>&#8220;The U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong, despite recent mixed data. Recent developments have increased the risk of a future adverse outcome. Our fortress principles are designed to withstand<br>any operating environment.&#8221;<\/p><cite>JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/ir\/events\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investor Day 2022, Firm Overview<\/a>, page 12<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Starting from <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/20\/apple-sits-out-latest-bear-market-bounce-the-market-breadth\/\">oversold conditions<\/a>, the market was looking for an excuse to rally. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co, delivered with Investor Day 2022 commentary. The market was all ears for the soundness of the economy and ignored the prospects for heightened risks. JPM responded with an impressive 6.2% rally. I call this the &#8220;Jamie Dimon push&#8221; that drove a lot of gains in the stock market. The rally was broad enough to lift the stock market out of oversold trading conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>&#8220;Well, the macroeconomic environment has definitely deteriorated further and faster than we expected when we issued our guidance for the second quarter. So even though our revenue continues to grow year-over-year in the second quarter, it\u2019s likely that revenue and EBITDA will come in below the low end of our guidance range.&#8221; <\/p><cite>Evan Spiegel, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Snap Inc (SNAP) at the J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference (<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4513959-snap-inc-snap-ceo-evan-spiegel-presents-j-p-morgans-50th-annual-global-technology-media-and\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Seeking Alpha transcript<\/a>)<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Spiegel pulled attention right back to risks with the above commentary at the very beginning of his discussion <a href=\"https:\/\/investor.snap.com\/events-and-presentations\/events\/event-details\/2022\/Snap-Inc-at-the-JP-Morgan-Global-Technology-Media-and-Communications-Conference\/default.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">at the J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference<\/a>. The heavy dose of economic reality overshadowed the rest of the review about the company&#8217;s business and product progress. SNAP lost a whopping 28.4% in after hours trading. The stock looks set to give up the rest of its pandemic era gains. This collapse is a devastating setback for a stock that hit the public market at $17 over 5 years ago. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Rru9Eh5u\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Rru9Eh5u\/\" alt=\"Snap Inc (SNAP) is set to cross the line at its pre-pandemic high.\" title=\"Snap Inc (SNAP)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Rru9Eh5u\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Snap Inc<\/a> (SNAP) is set to cross the line at its pre-pandemic high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>SNAP&#8217;s warning was bad enough to knock down a swath of related stocks in the after market. Last week&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/18\/back-to-oversold-as-retailers-increase-pain-the-market-breadth\/\">spotlight on troubled retailers<\/a> now turns to the health of the advertising market. Even Facebook lost 7%. Thus, the stock market looks set to sink right back into oversold trading conditions as economic concerns mount all over again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) jumped 1.8% as financials led the way higher. The automatic buying at and around the bear market line worked out one more time. Per plan, I promptly took profits on my SPY shares. I strongly suspect the S&amp;P 500 will not hold on a third test of this obvious and clear line of support. The index now needs buyers to step into whatever SNAP-related weakness greets the stock market at tomorrow&#8217;s open. Overhead resistance awaits with a convergence from the downtrending 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line below) and the May, 2021 low. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/jBmEl8rD\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/jBmEl8rD\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) broke through the bear market line for a brief moment. Buyers came to the rescue and closed the index flat on the day.\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/jBmEl8rD\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> (SPY) broke through the bear market line for a brief moment. Buyers came to the rescue and closed the index flat on the day.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQX) gained 1.6% yet failed to clear Friday&#8217;s intraday high. Still, the tech-laden index could have a date with overhead resistance before weakness returns. If Carter Braxton Worth&#8217;s technical observations hold, the NASDAQ (100) will lead a continuation of the bounce out of oversold conditions&#8230; or the S&amp;P 500 will lead the way right back down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Perhaps the single most important chart in the market.<br>We\u2019re thinking it bounces here.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24NDX&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$NDX<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24SPX&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$SPX<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24QQQ&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$QQQ<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1NGT3anFSk\">pic.twitter.com\/1NGT3anFSk<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Carter Braxton Worth (@CarterBWorth) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CarterBWorth\/status\/1528750801132347393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 23, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/rvNan30N\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/rvNan30N\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQX) gained 1.6% and closed right at the previous day's intraday high.\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/rvNan30N\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">NASDAQ<\/a> (COMPQX) gained 1.6% and closed right at the previous day&#8217;s intraday high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) was relatively unexciting. The ETF of small caps gained 1.2% as it continues to churn under its downtrending 20DMA.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/bhBqcxDe\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/bhBqcxDe\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained 1.2% under the shadow of its downtrending 20DMA.\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/bhBqcxDe\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">iShares Russell 2000 ETF<\/a> (IWM) gained 1.2% under the shadow of its downtrending 20DMA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) surprised last week with an inability to push to greater heights. The VIX surprised today with resilience in the face of a broad market rally. The VIX faded from earlier gains to close with a modest 3.2% loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/d06ZLihs\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/d06ZLihs\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) faded from its highs to lose 3.2% at the close.\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/d06ZLihs\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">volatility index<\/a> (VIX) faded from its highs to lose 3.2% at the close.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-a-promising-divergence\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With A Dimon Push and A Snap Pull<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/VB1DjWTu\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">MMFI<\/a>) = 20.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (ending 3 days oversold)<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/yUXn7tZF\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">MMTH<\/a>) = 23.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, pushed out of oversold conditions with a close at 20.9%. I was expecting a stronger push, especially with Apple Inc (AAPL) playing catch-up. A 4.0% surge saved AAPL from a more convincing breakdown below its October, 2021 close. If AAPL manages to hold the momentum, it can join forces with the Jamie Dimon push to buttress the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/5J4BqbdA\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/5J4BqbdA\/\" alt=\"Apple (AAPL) mounted a screaming comeback with a 4.0% surge breaking through resistance.\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/5J4BqbdA\/\">Apple<\/a> (AAPL) mounted a screaming comeback with a 4.0% surge breaking through resistance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Even with the prospects of oversold conditions starting up all over again, I am good leaving the short-term trading conditions at cautiously bullish. I remain much more interested in looking for excuses to buy for short-term trades than braving bear rallies to stick by a commitment to bet against a stock. This attitude will change on a rally into overhead resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 gained 1.3% over the course of the 3-day oversold period. This performance is right below expectations per the chart below (note this chart was made with the former market breadth indicator AT40 (T2108)).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/SP500PerformanceOversold_200409.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"679\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/SP500PerformanceOversold_200409.jpg\" alt=\"Performance of the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) from the beginning to the end of an oversold period.\" class=\"wp-image-52493\" title=\"Performance of the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) after an oversold period ends.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/SP500PerformanceOversold_200409.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/SP500PerformanceOversold_200409-768x521.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>Performance of the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) from the beginning to the end of an oversold period<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/VB1DjWTu\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/VB1DjWTu\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks above their respective 50DMAs, returned to where it started the week. It closed oversold for the 9th day out of the last 10.\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/VB1DjWTu\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">AT50 (MMFI<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/wQM6wb8G\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">)<\/a>, the percentage of stocks above their respective 50DMAs, returned to where it started the week. It closed oversold for the 9th day out of the last 10.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/FKNcMWUs\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/FKNcMWUs\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH), the percentage of stocks above their respective 200DMAs, continued its jump of its 2-year low on its approach to the primary downtrend.\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/FKNcMWUs\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">AT200<b> (MMTH)<\/b><\/a><b>, the percentage of stocks above their respective 200DMAs,<\/b> continued its jump off its 2-year low on its approach to the primary downtrend.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> Day #1 over 20% (first day over 20% ending 3 days oversold), Day #13 under 30%, Day #22 under 40%, Day #33 under 50%, Day #38 under 60%, Day #309 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  long SPY call calendar spread, long QQQ calls<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: &#8220;The U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong, despite recent mixed data. Recent developments have increased the risk of a future adverse outcome. Our fortress principles are designed to withstandany operating environment.&#8221; JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM), Investor Day 2022, Firm Overview, page 12 Starting from oversold conditions, the market was looking for &#8230; <a title=\"Oversold Ends With A Dimon Push and A Snap Pull &#8211; The Market Review\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/23\/oversold-ends-with-dimon-push-and-snap-pull-the-market-review\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,921,548,219,599,512,62],"tags":[250,534,1820,2832,2259,1955,2218,909,3115,351,963,413,65,1829,3058,362,303,931],"class_list":["post-59867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-downtrend","category-financials","category-high-tech","category-internet","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-carter-worth","tag-compqx","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-jamie-dimon","tag-jpm","tag-jpmorgan-chase","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-snap","tag-snap-inc","tag-spy","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oversold Ends With A Dimon Push and A Snap Pull - The Market Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The market cheered words about a sound economy and ignored heightened risks. I call this the &quot;Jamie Dimon push&quot;\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/23\/oversold-ends-with-dimon-push-and-snap-pull-the-market-review\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oversold Ends With A Dimon Push and A Snap Pull - The Market Review\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The market cheered words about a sound economy and ignored heightened risks. 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