{"id":59800,"date":"2022-05-18T00:43:29","date_gmt":"2022-05-18T07:43:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=59800"},"modified":"2022-05-18T01:00:44","modified_gmt":"2022-05-18T08:00:44","slug":"extended-oversold-period-ends-wth-important-breakout-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/18\/extended-oversold-period-ends-wth-important-breakout-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Extended Oversold Period Ends With Important Breakout &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-commentary\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/05\/17\/powell-says-the-fed-will-not-hesitate-to-keep-raising-rates-until-inflation-comes-down.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reminded the market one more time<\/a> about the Fed&#8217;s determination to fight inflation with normalized monetary policy, and the market cared for the briefest of moments. After the anti-inflation dust settled, the major indices closed trading on a strong note. For example, the extended oversold period came to an end despite <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/17\/stock-chart-reviews-retailers-weighing-down-oversold-bounce\/\">retailers like Walmart (WMT) weighing on the trading action<\/a>. The otherwise broadly based buying sliced the S&amp;P 500 right through key resistance. This important breakout confirmed the end of oversold conditions and held out the tantalizing prospect of a continued rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) left behind the prospect of remaining trapped in a new churn zone between the May, 2021 low as resistance and the bear market line as support. The index&#8217;s 2.0% gain created the important breakout for the day. Follow-through buying will set up the potential for a rally right through the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line below) and to the 50DMA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Per <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/13\/apple-leads-picture-perfect-bear-market-bounce-the-market-breadth\/\">my plan<\/a>, I took profits on my SPY shares. I will now switch back to call options on a higher close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/BJIjgScy\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/BJIjgScy\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) printed the first important breakout of the bounce out of oversold conditions. The 2.0% gain put the index over its May, 2021 resistance line.\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/BJIjgScy\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> (SPY) printed the first important breakout of the bounce out of oversold conditions. The 2.0% gain put the index over its May, 2021 resistance line.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQX) came close to joining the S&amp;P 500 with its own important breakout. The tech-laden&#8217;s index gained 2.8% and stopped trading just under the important September, 2020 high. Like the S&amp;P 500, a confirmed breakout above this resistance would set up a run all the way to overhead 50DMA resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/fPavzelg\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/fPavzelg\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQX) gained 2.8% and closed just short of its September, 2020 resistance line.\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/fPavzelg\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">NASDAQ<\/a> (COMPQX) gained 2.8% and closed just short of its September, 2020 resistance line.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is converging on both its downtrending 20DMA and the former 2022 low. These two price levels represent stiff resistance. Accordingly, a breakout above this converged resistance would signal a new bullish phase for the bounce out of oversold conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/uHkpAsUu\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/uHkpAsUu\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained 3.1% and put downtrending 20DMA resistance into view.\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/uHkpAsUu\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">iShares Russell 2000 ETF<\/a> (IWM) gained 3.1% and put downtrending 20DMA resistance into view.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) confirmed the fresh wave of bullishness with another large decline. The VIX lost 5.0% for its 6th straight down day. The topping pattern from last week is now very clear. Going forward I will treat 35-40 as the likely maximum high for the next trip through oversold trading conditions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Note I took profits on my SVXY shares on Monday. I do not plan to buy shares again until the VIX experiences a large surge in the middle of oversold trading conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/pNNcbX0e\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/pNNcbX0e\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) continued its sharp slide from last week's topping pattern. Today's 5.0% loss nearly tested the low for the month.\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/pNNcbX0e\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">volatility index<\/a> (VIX) continued its sharp slide from last week&#8217;s topping pattern. Today&#8217;s 5.0% loss nearly tested the low for the month.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-a-promising-divergence\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call With A Bear Market Bounce<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Z4xNZmZ7\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">MMFI<\/a>) = 25.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (ending 6 days oversold)<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ANbs8wvg\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">MMTH<\/a>) = 26.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, gained for a fourth straight day. The 25.0% close launched my favorite technical indicator out of oversold trading conditions (defined by the 20% threshold). The 6-day long oversold period qualifies as an extended stay and validated <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/08\/how-much-longer-can-market-avoid-extended-oversold-period-the-market-breadth\/\">my read of the likelihood of such a period occurring in this moment<\/a>. The S&amp;P 500 gained 2.4% for this oversold period. This performance means that the aggressive strategy of buying the first oversold day worked yet again (recall that I chose to wait).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Normally, this would be a time to get more bullish. However, I remain wary because of the looming challenges of important overhead resistance for the major indices. As a result, I will continue to moderate by pursuit of buying opportunities. A confirmed 50DMA breakout for the S&amp;P 500 would convert me to bullish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Recession will be longer and deeper than most people believe, says Mark Tepper\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SlWHhyfy13A?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Z4xNZmZ7\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Z4xNZmZ7\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks above their respective 50DMAs, jumped to 17.6% for its 5th day stuck in oversold territory.\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/BlO5ucru\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">AT50 (MMFI<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/wQM6wb8G\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">)<\/a>, the percentage of stocks above their respective 50DMAs, surged above the oversold threshold of 20% and tested its current downtrend.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ANbs8wvg\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ANbs8wvg\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH), the percentage of stocks above their respective 200DMAs, continued its jump of its 2-year low on its approach to the primary downtrend.\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ANbs8wvg\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">AT200<b> (MMTH)<\/b><\/a><b>, the percentage of stocks above their respective 200DMAs,<\/b> continued its jump of its 2-year low on its approach to the primary downtrend.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods:<\/strong><\/strong> Day #1 over 20% (overperiod ending 6 days oversold), Day #9 under 30%, Day #18 under 40%, Day #29 under 50%, Day #34 under 60%, Day #305 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong>  no positions<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reminded the market one more time about the Fed&#8217;s determination to fight inflation with normalized monetary policy, and the market cared for the briefest of moments. After the anti-inflation dust settled, the major indices closed trading on a strong note. For example, the extended oversold period came &#8230; <a title=\"Extended Oversold Period Ends With Important Breakout &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/18\/extended-oversold-period-ends-wth-important-breakout-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1303,482,512,62],"tags":[1820,2832,1955,3113,2218,909,413,65,362,303,931],"class_list":["post-59800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bottom","category-breakout","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compqx","tag-david-tepper","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Extended Oversold Period Ends With Important Breakout - The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The S&amp;P 500 sliced through key resistance. 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