{"id":59719,"date":"2022-05-14T17:59:31","date_gmt":"2022-05-15T00:59:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=59719"},"modified":"2022-05-15T15:55:29","modified_gmt":"2022-05-15T22:55:29","slug":"intuit-inc-valuation-normalized-by-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/14\/intuit-inc-valuation-normalized-by-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Intuit Inc: Valuation Normalized By the Bear Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>With a bear market underway and oversold trading conditions, I am actively looking for longer-term buys in the stock market. Tax, accounting, and personal finance services software company Intuit Inc (INTU) jumped into my radar thanks to CNBC&#8217;s Options Action. Michael Khouw laid out the case for buying a long-term INTU call option, but he seemed to cherry pick 1994&#8217;s 36x forward earnings to compare to today&#8217;s 29x forward earnings. I need a broader view, so I looked at multiple valuation metrics going back 10 years. These snapshots show Intuit has a valuation normalized by <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/13\/apple-leads-picture-perfect-bear-market-bounce-the-market-breadth\/\">a bear market<\/a> that has clobbered INTU 46% off its all-time high in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/2ajcCsqA\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/2ajcCsqA\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/2ajcCsqA\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Intuit Inc<\/a> (INTU) bounced off a bear market 18-month low but remains 46% off its all-time high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Valuation Normalized<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The sell-off in INTU has left valuation normalized back to multi-year lows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The price\/earnings ratio is at an 18-month low and back to the range that dominated trading from 2018 to 2020. Perhaps more importantly, the market finished wiping out Intuit&#8217;s entire pandemic era valuation premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1300\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/220514_INTU-Intuit-p-e-gaap-ttm.png\" alt=\"The price-to-earnings ratio for Intuit, Inc (INTU) normalized back to the 2018 - 2020 range.\" class=\"wp-image-59721\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/220514_INTU-Intuit-p-e-gaap-ttm.png 1300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/220514_INTU-Intuit-p-e-gaap-ttm-768x266.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1300px) 100vw, 1300px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/INTU\/charting?axis=linear&amp;compare=INTU&amp;interval=10Y&amp;metric=pe_ratio&amp;series=line\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">price-to-earnings ratio<\/a> for Intuit, Inc (INTU) normalized back to the 2018 &#8211; 2020 range.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Not only did the bear market erase Intuit&#8217;s pandemic era price-to-sales ratio premium, but also it pushed Intuit close to its P\/S valuation low from the March, 2020 crash. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/INTU\/charting?axis=linear&amp;compare=INTU&amp;interval=10Y&amp;metric=ps_ratio&amp;series=line\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1300\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/220514_INTU-Intuit-price-sales-ttm.png\" alt=\"Price-to-sales valuation normalized for Intuit, Inc (INTU).\" class=\"wp-image-59722\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/220514_INTU-Intuit-price-sales-ttm.png 1300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/220514_INTU-Intuit-price-sales-ttm-768x266.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1300px) 100vw, 1300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/INTU\/charting?axis=linear&amp;compare=INTU&amp;interval=10Y&amp;metric=ps_ratio&amp;series=line\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Price-to-sales<\/a> valuation normalized for Intuit, Inc (INTU).<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps most importantly, the price-to-cash-flow ratio for Intuit normalized back to pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/INTU\/charting?axis=linear&amp;compare=INTU&amp;interval=10Y&amp;metric=price_cf_ratio&amp;series=line\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1300\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/220514_INTU-Intuit-Inc-price-cash-flow-ttm.png\" alt=\"Price-to-cash-flow valuation normalized for Intuit, Inc (INTU).\" class=\"wp-image-59723\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/220514_INTU-Intuit-Inc-price-cash-flow-ttm.png 1300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/220514_INTU-Intuit-Inc-price-cash-flow-ttm-768x266.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1300px) 100vw, 1300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/INTU\/charting?axis=linear&amp;compare=INTU&amp;interval=10Y&amp;metric=price_cf_ratio&amp;series=line\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Price-to-cash-flow<\/a> valuation normalized for Intuit, Inc (INTU).<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Each of these three valuation snapshots show how far out of whack valuations got even for long-standing, solid businesses like Intuit. The popping of this valuation bubble, what I am calling &#8220;valuation normalized&#8221;, places Intuit back to pre-pandemic levels. Note well that even in the months and years leading into the pandemic, one might rightfully question the general uptrend in valuation. A complete normalization could take INTU down another 25-35%, especially if business slows down from a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Trade<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Buying a call in Intuit!<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Michael_Khouw?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Michael_Khouw<\/a> lays out the reasons why investors may want to trade <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24INTU&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$INTU<\/a> through options instead of the stock.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/OptionsPlay?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@OptionsPlay<\/a>&#39;s Tony Zhang and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CarterBWorth?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@CarterBWorth<\/a> also weigh in. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/n5VCNbZV0E\">pic.twitter.com\/n5VCNbZV0E<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Options Action (@OptionsAction) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/OptionsAction\/status\/1525237504219176965?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Khouw recommended buying a January 2023 $380 INTU call. While such a position makes sense as an alternative to buying 100 shares, the outlay still represents a large sum of money. I prefer to scale into a position buying shares and look to buy a call spread if\/when the market delivers a climactic type of surge to the downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: no position<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With a bear market underway and oversold trading conditions, I am actively looking for longer-term buys in the stock market. Tax, accounting, and personal finance services software company Intuit Inc (INTU) jumped into my radar thanks to CNBC&#8217;s Options Action. Michael Khouw laid out the case for buying a long-term INTU call option, but he &#8230; <a title=\"Intuit Inc: Valuation Normalized By the Bear Market\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/05\/14\/intuit-inc-valuation-normalized-by-bear-market\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1862,219,1311],"tags":[3063,3062,50],"class_list":["post-59719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business-services","category-high-tech","category-software","tag-intu","tag-intuit-inc","tag-valuation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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