{"id":59386,"date":"2022-04-07T01:04:45","date_gmt":"2022-04-07T08:04:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=59386"},"modified":"2022-04-07T01:12:36","modified_gmt":"2022-04-07T08:12:36","slug":"fed-speak-triggers-swirl-of-resistance-breakdowns-stiff-support-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/04\/07\/fed-speak-triggers-swirl-of-resistance-breakdowns-stiff-support-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed-Speak Triggers A Swirl of Resistance, Breakdowns, and Stiff Support &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-commentary\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>How many times and how many ways does the Fed need to communicate its seriousness about normalizing monetary policy and fighting inflation? Apparently, the answer for Fed-speak is many times and a LOT of ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered one way with a speech on Tuesday titled &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/brainard20220405a.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Variation in the Inflation Experiences of Households<\/a>&#8220;. Brainard&#8217;s speech mentioned or referenced inflation 76 times including inflation-fighting reassurance like &#8220;it is of paramount importance to get inflation down&#8230;inflation is very high, particularly for food and gasoline. All Americans are confronting higher prices, but the burden is particularly great for households with more limited resources.&#8221; As a result, Brainard went on the explain that &#8220;the Committee will continue tightening monetary policy methodically through a series of interest rate increases and by starting to reduce the balance sheet at a rapid pace as soon as our May meeting.&#8221; While this plan is quite consistent with <a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2022\/03\/22\/transitory-complete-fed-chair-jay-powell-gets-comfortable-with-the-inflation-hawks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#8217;s game-changing speech on inflation<\/a> last month, the market was somehow caught by surprise by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcminutes20220316.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the minutes from the March meeting<\/a>. While the chatter in the minutes does not represent policy, the revelation of specific numbers apparently spooked markets all over again. The end result: two days of sharp selling in the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/04\/01\/near-bearish-reversal-carves-quick-crest-in-rally-the-market-breadth\/\">near bearish reversal<\/a> clearly put the stock market in a jittery mood. Steve Liesman perfectly summarized sentiment in CNBC&#8217;s Fast Money segment. He explained that if you haven&#8217;t been paying attention, the minutes shocked you. &#8220;The monetary policy dove is an endangered species,&#8221; and the minutes demonstrate no one on the Fed has interest in opposing the path to normalization. The result: a swirl of resistance, breakdowns, and stiff support in the major indices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Wall Street selling off today!<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/steveliesman?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@steveliesman<\/a> joins the crew at the Nasdaq to discuss the Fed&#39;s plan to shrink its balance sheet by $95B a month. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/timseymour?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@timseymour<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/karenfinerman?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@karenfinerman<\/a> weigh in on if now is the time for a shift in strategy. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yWE2Z61LM5\">pic.twitter.com\/yWE2Z61LM5<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC&#39;s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBCFastMoney\/status\/1511816493801029632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 6, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-stock-market-indices\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) put an exclamation point on <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/03\/29\/latest-oversold-cycle-powers-up-for-potential-climax-the-market-breadth\/\">its false breakout<\/a>. The Brainard sell-off took the index down 1.3%. The Fed Minutes sell-off took the S&amp;P 500 down another 1.0% and even cracked support at the 200-day moving average (DMA) (the blue line below). The uptrending 20DMA (the dotted line) held as support for the day. An uptrending 50DMA is rushing higher to serve as potentially stronger support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Kfw6mxNW\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Kfw6mxNW\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) lost 1.0% and closed below 200DMA support. Buyers picked up the index from 20DMA support.  \" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/JXmZuHNv\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> (SPY) lost 1.0% and closed below 200DMA support. Buyers picked up the index from 20DMA support. <\/em> <\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQX) found support at its 50DMA (the red line below). However, the one-two punch of Fed-driven sell-offs cost the tech-laden index a combined 4.6%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/jfUOibd2\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/jfUOibd2\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQX) lost 2.2% but managed to bounce off 50DMA support.\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/jfUOibd2\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">NASDAQ<\/a> (COMPQX) lost 2.2% but managed to bounce off 50DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) found NO support during its 2-day 3.8% slide. The reversal from the false breakout planted IWM right back in the middle of the muck from the previous trading range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/8TjXLyyU\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/8TjXLyyU\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) lost 1.4% and close below 50DMA support.\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/8TjXLyyU\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">iShares Russell 2000 ETF<\/a> (IWM) lost 1.4% and close below 50DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) benefited from the 2-day sell-off. Still, faders left a scar by pushing the VIX from a 17.8% gain to just a 5.1% advance on the day. This fade keeps open the prospect of a pivot around the 20 level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ufVXIBlb\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ufVXIBlb\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) soared 17.8% at its high of the day. Faders took the VIX down to a 5.1% gain.\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ufVXIBlb\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">volatility index<\/a> (VIX) soared 17.8% at its high of the day. Faders took the VIX down to a 5.1% gain.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-a-promising-divergence\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call with A Potential Climax<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/EKPIP4pk\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">MMFI<\/a>) = 47.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/fq6f0j07\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">MMTH<\/a>) = 36.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, finished a reversal from its false breakout. The sharp pullback from the overbought threshold of 70% took AT50 all the way back to 47.4%. This follow-through sets up the conditions for flipping bearish if the S&amp;P 500 breaks down below its 50DMA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since initial reactions to Fed-speak often get reversed, I moved on a new tranche of index options. I scooped up the trifecta: QQQ call spreads, an SPY call spread, and an IWM call spread. The bearish tinges of the market this week were so strong that old hedges sprang to life. Those gains gave me more confidence to reach for this next tranche of call options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/EKPIP4pk\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/U8unjN3y\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks above their respective 50DMAs, fell another 5 percentage points as a part of a sharp reversal away from the overbought threshold at 70%.\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/BLLOfPg2\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AT50 (<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/U8unjN3y\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">MMFI<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/wQM6wb8G\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">)<\/a>, the percentage of stocks above their respective 50DMAs, fell another 5 percentage points as a part of a sharp reversal away from the overbought threshold at 70%.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Q6y1UqqE\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Q6y1UqqE\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH), the percentage of stocks above their respective 200DMAs, fell out of its recent uptrend and almost looks set to resume its previous downtrend.\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/syodjUUI\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">AT200<b> (MMTH)<\/b><\/a><b>, the percentage of stocks above their respective 200DMAs,<\/b> fell out of its recent uptrend and almost looks set to resume its previous downtrend.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods<\/strong>:<\/strong> Day #497 over 20%, Day #22 over 30%, Day #16 over 40% (overperiod), Day #1 under 50% (underperiod), Day #6 under 60%, Day #277 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure: long QQQ call spreads, long SPY call spreads, long IWM call spread<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: How many times and how many ways does the Fed need to communicate its seriousness about normalizing monetary policy and fighting inflation? Apparently, the answer for Fed-speak is many times and a LOT of ways. Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered one way with a speech on Tuesday titled &#8220;Variation in the Inflation &#8230; <a title=\"Fed-Speak Triggers A Swirl of Resistance, Breakdowns, and Stiff Support &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/04\/07\/fed-speak-triggers-swirl-of-resistance-breakdowns-stiff-support-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,58,512,511,62],"tags":[1820,2832,1955,1595,1598,2218,909,3004,115,413,65,362,2658,303,931],"class_list":["post-59386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-federal-reserve","category-resistance","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compqx","tag-federal-reserve","tag-inflation","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-lael-brainard","tag-monetary-policy","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-steve-liesman","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed-Speak Triggers A Swirl of Resistance, Breakdowns, and Stiff Support<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fed-speak reminded the stock market yet again about aggressive inflation-fighting underway. 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