{"id":59270,"date":"2022-03-22T21:01:39","date_gmt":"2022-03-23T04:01:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=59270"},"modified":"2022-03-23T00:02:05","modified_gmt":"2022-03-23T07:02:05","slug":"bullish-signals-hard-to-believe-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/03\/22\/bullish-signals-hard-to-believe-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"The Bullish Signals That Are Hard to Believe &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-commentary\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/03\/19\/relentless-comeback-melts-away-key-resistance-the-market-breadth\/\">The stock market continued its quest<\/a> to convince us that the world is getting or soon will get a lot better. Perhaps the market is somehow feeding off <a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2022\/03\/22\/transitory-complete-fed-chair-jay-powell-gets-comfortable-with-the-inflation-hawks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the definitive hawkishness from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. Whatever the explanation, market breadth expanded to levels last seen 4 months ago. The rally demonstrates broadly based buying in the stock market. This strength culminated in bullish signals that are hard to believe all things considered. The S&amp;P 500 managed to break out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) (the blue line in the chart below) &#8211; a very bullish event. The NASDAQ cleared its downtrending 50DMA (the red line) for the first time since the beginning of the year. These bullish signals are happening even while the volatility index remains elevated. The currency market tops off the bullish chorus. The Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen (AUD\/JPY) is now in a <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/12\/28\/how-to-identify-parabolic-trading-in-stocks-and-currencies\/\">parabolic<\/a> push.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am freshly taken aback by this rally given Fed Chair Jerome Powell started this week with a staunch defense of his new hawkish religion. He delivered a pivotal speech that is likely the signature moment of his career as Fed Chair. I reviewed this speech in &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2022\/03\/22\/transitory-complete-fed-chair-jay-powell-gets-comfortable-with-the-inflation-hawks\/\">Transitory Complete: Fed Chair Jay Powell Gets Comfortable With the Inflation&nbsp;Hawks<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Rate hikes have historically created a rally in the markets, says Mark Smith\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7J_RXOrTWMU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-stock-market-indices\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) added to its 6.2% gains last week with a 1.1% gain. That move printed a bullish 200DMA breakout that also confirmed last week&#8217;s 50DMA breakout. The twin peaks of February are now in play as the next important test of overhead resistance. I now await confirmation of the new bullishness from a higher close. At that point I will add SPY back into the shopping basket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/tJollAgB\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/tJollAgB\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) broke out above 200DMA resistance. While the February highs present a large challenge, the index is enjoying a 8.1% rally off its 9-month low.\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/U6WgoYGj\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> (SPY) broke out above 200DMA resistance. While the February highs present a large challenge, the index is enjoying a 8.1% rally off its 9-month low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>While the S&amp;P 500 ended its 50DMA downtrend last week, the NASDAQ (COMPQX) is still laboring away. Today&#8217;s impressive 2.0% gain pushed the NASDAQ over its 50DMA resistance. The last (clear) close above this downtrend happened at the beginning of the year. I used this extension of the rally to take profits on one of my QQQ call spreads purchased just on Friday. Like the S&amp;P 500, the tech-laden index is in the middle of a V-shaped rebound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/vgLSsVrv\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/vgLSsVrv\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQX) broke out above its 50DMA and closed above this downtrend for the first time since the beginning of the year.\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/lpebas1G\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NASDAQ<\/a> (COMPQX) broke out above its 50DMA and closed above this downtrend for the first time since the beginning of the year.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained 1.0% but faded from its intraday high. As a result, IWM closed below February&#8217;s intraday high. Still, the ETF of small cap stocks pushed further away from the February closing highs. The breakout continues on IWM with 200DMA overhead resistance in play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/GXpOlrzr\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/GXpOlrzr\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is continuing its bullish 50DMA breakout despite an intraday fade back to a 1.0% gain on the day.\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/kNhCoW1g\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">iShares Russell 2000 ETF<\/a> (IWM) is continuing its bullish 50DMA breakout despite an intraday fade back to a 1.0% gain on the day.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) looks &#8220;destined&#8221; to hit the 20 level in due time. Faders have pressured the VIX throughout the current rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/LOL99G2D\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/LOL99G2D\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) lost another 2.5% on its way to what looks like a rendezvous with the important 20 level.\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/wvII0q8e\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">volatility index<\/a> (VIX) lost another 2.5% on its way to what looks like a rendezvous with the important 20 level.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-a-promising-divergence\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call with Hard to Believe Bullishness<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/KVWAxuVk\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">MMFI<\/a>) = 56.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/LqN10ifx\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">MMTH<\/a>) = 40.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, increased from last week&#8217;s close by almost three percentage points to 56.6%. My favorite technical indicator is underlining the bullish tone of the stock market by signaling expanding market breadth. While the bullish breakouts are hard to believe at this juncture, the sellers have the heavy burden of proof to demonstrate a different reality. I am now at the edge of my seat pondering the prospects for a test of the overbought threshold at 70%. Even AT200 looks as bullish as can be with higher highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps fund managers are already putting cash stockpiles back to work! Add to the list of hard to believe bullish signals the recent surge in cash back to shares last seen during the 2020 stock market crash. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"503px;\" height=\"342px;\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/dRG0WU6Xeg41jSpNECUEDYHrQhtq5sDhDQTCzCbJIdKf6sm6J-Xf_9CkwHwDTcKtSdg_eq5nc3nM9iCDqnWXqECRRwmtjgb2Rg4hbYrARDcEzD_ZsQcaI6cYgU4Cxw1bzjyNnL2zRHWX\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, the currency market is weighing in with a parabolic move in the Australian dollar versus the Japanese Yen (AUD\/JPY). This forex tell on market sentiment has flagged bullish signals for over month. I could not quite accept the signal because soaring commodity prices are sharply shifting the balance of trade between Australia and Japan. However, at this point, AUD\/JPY is one more hard to believe bullish signal. Once this parabolic move comes to an abrupt end (as is <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/12\/28\/how-to-identify-parabolic-trading-in-stocks-and-currencies\/\">typical of parabolic price runs<\/a>), I fully expect the stock market to remain in sync with <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/04\/13\/why-australian-dollar-japanese-yen-matter-for-stock-traders\/\">this tell on market sentiment<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/R0Tlu1Lm\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/R0Tlu1Lm\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/R0Tlu1Lm\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen<\/a> (AUD\/JPY) accelerated to the upside alongside the hard to believe rally in the stock market.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/KVWAxuVk\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/KVWAxuVk\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks above their respective 50DMAs, surged through its downtrend and stretched to its high of the year. An eventual test of overbought conditions is now in play.\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/BLLOfPg2\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AT50 (<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/uMY4T5Ny\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">MMFI<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/wQM6wb8G\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">)<\/a>, the percentage of stocks above their respective 50DMAs, surged through its downtrend and stretched to its high of the year. An eventual test of overbought conditions is now in play.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/6AyhHQuD\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/6AyhHQuD\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH), the percentage of stocks above their respective 200DMAs, pushed further away from the February highs.\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/OY5FqJQ6\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AT200<b> (MMTH)<\/b><\/a><b>, the percentage of stocks above their respective 200DMAs,<\/b> pushed further away from the February highs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods<\/strong>:<\/strong> Day #486 over 20%, Day #11 over 30%, Day #5 over 40%, Day #3 over 50% (overperiod), Day #86 under 60% (underperiod), Day #266 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure: net long QQQ call spreads, long IWM call spread<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: The stock market continued its quest to convince us that the world is getting or soon will get a lot better. Perhaps the market is somehow feeding off the definitive hawkishness from the Federal Reserve. Whatever the explanation, market breadth expanded to levels last seen 4 months ago. The rally demonstrates broadly &#8230; <a title=\"The Bullish Signals That Are Hard to Believe &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/03\/22\/bullish-signals-hard-to-believe-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,20,62],"tags":[1820,2832,772,310,1955,2218,909,138,413,1816,65,362,303,931],"class_list":["post-59270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-audjpy","tag-australian-dollar","tag-compqx","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-japanese-yen","tag-nasdaq","tag-parabolic","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Bullish Signals That Are Hard to Believe \u2013 The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This rally demonstrates broad buying in the stock market. 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