{"id":58993,"date":"2022-02-08T23:35:35","date_gmt":"2022-02-09T07:35:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=58993"},"modified":"2022-02-08T23:37:45","modified_gmt":"2022-02-09T07:37:45","slug":"bitcoin-tale-of-two-plunges-to-clear-2022-pathway","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/02\/08\/bitcoin-tale-of-two-plunges-to-clear-2022-pathway\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin: A Tale of Two Plunges Clear A 2022 Pathway"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Back in October and November, Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) created renewed excitement when the cryptocurrency challenged its all-time high and then set three new all-time highs. Unfortunately, the breakout turned into a fakeout. Bitcoin peaked with the NASDAQ (QQQ) in November as financial markets moved away from aggressively priced risk assets. However, a more sustainable bottom may have arrived. Two plunges on the way down could have cashed out enough motivated sellers to clear a path for healthy rallies in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_BTCUSD-Bitcoin.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1566\" height=\"853\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_BTCUSD-Bitcoin.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) made a move for a more sustained bottom by reversing its Russian losses with a 50DMA breakout.\" class=\"wp-image-58998\" title=\"Bitcoin (BTC\/USD)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_BTCUSD-Bitcoin.png 1566w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_BTCUSD-Bitcoin-768x418.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_BTCUSD-Bitcoin-1536x837.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_BTCUSD-Bitcoin-1320x719.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1566px) 100vw, 1566px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/6hLsvivu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bitcoin<\/a> (BTC\/USD) made a move for a more sustained bottom by reversing its Russian losses with a 50DMA breakout.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The selling started in earnest as <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/12\/04\/no-longer-oversold-but-still-ugly-stock-market-the-market-breadth\/\">the NASDAQ (COMPQX) dropped 1.9% and closed below support at its 50-day moving average<\/a> (DMA) on December 3rd. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/bitcoin-extends-downtrend-falls-121-47176-2021-12-04\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">selling was strong enough to carry into Saturday<\/a>.  I did not see any credible explanations for the drop. The episode just looked like on of those sporadic hiccups that are a feature of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fast Money&#8217;s Brian Kelly implied that the sell-off was related to institutional investors deciding to take off inflation hedges. Kelly called the drop a buying opportunity. I definitely agreed with that assessment as my long-standing strategy for Bitcoin remains to buy into price collapses. Bitcoin did indeed reverse sharply off the lows, but the price action never reversed the losses. That failure turned out to be a sign of further selling to come. December was just the first of two plunges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin joined in on the sell-off today. Our resident <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/crypto?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#crypto<\/a> expert <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BKBrianKelly?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@BKBrianKelly<\/a> on what he&#39;s watching <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CQNAnHrHgT\">pic.twitter.com\/CQNAnHrHgT<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC&#39;s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBCFastMoney\/status\/1466898635866714117?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 3, 2021<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-wisdom-of-google-trends\"><strong>The Wisdom of Google Trends<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin took a month to return to the lows of the December plunge. It held its ground there until crypto markets shuddered upon news that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/01\/20\/russian-central-bank-proposes-banning-cryptocurrencies-crypto-mining.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Russia&#8217;s central bank proposed banning cryptocurrencies<\/a>. (It turns out authoritarian governments still do not like decentralized money). The subsequent 2-day plunge was roughly equivalent to December&#8217;s however a key difference emerged. Google trends for the search &#8220;bitcoin&#8221; surged to a higher peak than at the time of December&#8217;s sell-off. While both Google trends responses were small compared to earlier surges, the relative increase for January appeared to flag a difference. Bitcoin soon bottomed and began a rally. The buying hit a kind of crescendo on February 4th and soon after generated a confirmed 50DMA breakout. It was <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/06\/30\/how-to-use-google-trend-momentum-check-with-bitcoin-prices\/\">the Google Trend Momentum Check (GTMC)<\/a> doing its work again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More importantly, the rally erased all the losses from the Russian news. That reversal is an important bullish and bottoming signal. Combined with the GTMC signal, this second of two plunges likely cleared the pathway for 2022 rallies. A break below the recent lows would invalidate the bullish signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1122\" height=\"513\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_Google-Trends-Bitcoin-12months.jpg\" alt=\"The last two Google trends surges for Bitcoin pale in comparison to the surge in May, 2021 (which in turn corresponded with a massive crypto sell-off)\" class=\"wp-image-59000\" title=\"Google trends surges for Bitcoin\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_Google-Trends-Bitcoin-12months.jpg 1122w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_Google-Trends-Bitcoin-12months-768x351.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1122px) 100vw, 1122px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>The last two <a href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?q=bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Google trends surges for Bitcoin<\/a> pale in comparison to the surge in May, 2021 (which in turn corresponded with a massive crypto sell-off)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_Google-Trends-Bitcoin-90days.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1127\" height=\"513\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_Google-Trends-Bitcoin-90days.jpg\" alt=\"Google trends from the last 90 days show how Bitcoin's two plunges exactly corresponded with search surges.\" class=\"wp-image-59001\" title=\"Google trends from the last 90 days\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_Google-Trends-Bitcoin-90days.jpg 1127w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220208_Google-Trends-Bitcoin-90days-768x350.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1127px) 100vw, 1127px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?date=today%203-m&amp;q=bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Google trends from the last 90 days<\/a> show how Bitcoin&#8217;s two plunges exactly corresponded with search surges.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-trade-with-two-plunges\"><strong>The Trade with Two Plunges<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I dutifully accumulated Bitcoin (and Ethereum (ETH\/USD)) on the way down. I focused my buying on big down days. While I did not use GMTC to guide my decisions this time around, I am still gratified to see the trading model working. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I took profits on my BTC\/USD on the current breakout. However, I am still holding the Bitcoin products Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) at small losses. These positions stay put until at least a fresh challenge on the Bitcoin $50-$60K range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, I have become more interested in Ethereum than Bitcoin. Each cryptocurrency benefits from dedicated fan bases and staunch adherents, but I am more interested in the growing applications for Ethereum (for example, NFTs &#8211; non-fungible tokens). If Bitcoin is like a &#8220;store of value,&#8221; then Ethereum is a &#8220;store of use cases.&#8221; In other words, I remain comfortable trading either crypto since they continue to enjoy (eventual) floors after steep sell-offs. I am just accumulating larger ETH positions on the dips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart below shows ETH\/USD has not yet reversed the Russia losses. Moreover, ETH still needs to clear its 50DMA hurdle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/t4IcmsFJ\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/t4IcmsFJ\/\" alt=\"Ethereum (ETH\/USD) is staring down formidable resistance from its 50DMA and next 200DMA.\" title=\"Ethereum (ETH\/USD)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/t4IcmsFJ\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ethereum<\/a> (ETH\/USD) is staring down formidable resistance from its 50DMA and next 200DMA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long ETH\/USD, long GBTC, BITO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Back in October and November, Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) created renewed excitement when the cryptocurrency challenged its all-time high and then set three new all-time highs. Unfortunately, the breakout turned into a fakeout. Bitcoin peaked with the NASDAQ (QQQ) in November as financial markets moved away from aggressively priced risk assets. However, a more sustainable bottom may &#8230; <a title=\"Bitcoin: A Tale of Two Plunges Clear A 2022 Pathway\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/02\/08\/bitcoin-tale-of-two-plunges-to-clear-2022-pathway\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,482,1974,512,62,1210],"tags":[602,2174,2187,2310,1975,2241,2223],"class_list":["post-58993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-cryptocurrency-forex","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-model","tag-bitcoin","tag-brian-kelly","tag-btcusd","tag-eth-usd","tag-ethereum","tag-google-trend-momentum-check","tag-gtmc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin: A Tale of Two Plunges Clear A 2022 Pathway<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A more sustainable bottom may have arrived. 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