{"id":58941,"date":"2022-02-04T20:54:02","date_gmt":"2022-02-05T04:54:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=58941"},"modified":"2022-02-05T18:32:38","modified_gmt":"2022-02-06T02:32:38","slug":"churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/02\/04\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"Churn Zones Hold Against Wild Price Swings &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-commentary\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/01\/29\/churn-zone-stands-against-bear-market-the-market-breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The churn zones<\/a> continued to hold sway over the market last week. Buyers effectively fought off a descent into a bear market by rallying the major indices up and out of the churn zone. Still, the narrative of churn stands thanks to a refresh of fear from Facebook&#8217;s post-earnings blow-up. Meta Platforms, Inc (FB) slammed the market with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/02\/03\/facebooks-232billion-drop-in-value-sets-all-time-record.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the largest ever one day loss in market cap<\/a>. Next, Amazon.com (AMZN) followed that performance with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/amazon-surges-eyes-wall-street-record-gain-value-2022-02-04\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">history&#8217;s largest ever one day gain in market cap<\/a>. On balance, wild price swings were the rule in a week that produced net gains for the indices. It was actually a week that delivered for bullish trades on a bounce away from <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/01\/24\/a-time-for-discipline-not-precision-the-market-breadth\/\">oversold trading conditions<\/a>. Still, churn rules everything around market stocks (CREAMS) thanks to <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/01\/30\/hawkish-yet-uncertain-a-toxic-elixir-from-the-fed-for-stocks\/\">hawkish monetary policy in the midst of heightened uncertainty<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Wu-Tang Clan - C.R.E.A.M. (Official HD Video)\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/PBwAxmrE194?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-stock-market-indices\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) gained 1.6% for the week. The continued buying off the oversold lows validated (once again) <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/01\/24\/a-time-for-discipline-not-precision-the-market-breadth\/\">the principles of staying disciplined with the AT50 trading rules<\/a>. If not for the historic plunge in the shares of Meta Platforms, Inc (FB), the S&amp;P 500 might have even tested resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below). Instead, the breakout above the churn zone turned into a fresh test of support at the 200DMA (the blue line). You guessed it. I bought a fresh SPY calendar call spread right at the 200DMA. I continue to choose spreads where options premiums are high. My $452\/$447 weekly configuration assumes that the index at best will churn along its 200DMA in the coming week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I took profits on my previous SPY $450\/$460 after the S&amp;P 500 broke out above its 20DMA (the dotted line).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220204_SPY-SP500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1566\" height=\"853\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220204_SPY-SP500.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) escaped the churn zone for two days. Sellers insisted on testing 200DMA support to close out the week.\" class=\"wp-image-58943\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220204_SPY-SP500.png 1566w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220204_SPY-SP500-768x418.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220204_SPY-SP500-1536x837.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220204_SPY-SP500-1320x719.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1566px) 100vw, 1566px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) escaped the churn zone for two days. Sellers insisted on testing 200DMA support to close out the week.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Like the S&amp;P 500, the NASDAQ (COMPQX) popped above the churn zone for two days. The tech laden index suffered even more from FB&#8217;s earnings disaster. The NASDAQ ended the week with a brief challenge of the top of the churn zone. The index gained 2.4% for the week. I never took profits on my QQQ call spread position, but I will need to act this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/xlrfhRi0\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/xlrfhRi0\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQX) has its own churn zone of indecision. A fresh breakdown would plunge the NASDAQ right into a bear market.\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/xlrfhRi0\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">NASDAQ<\/a> (COMPQX) escaped its churn zone for two days. Facebook&#8217;s awful earnings helped force the NASDAQ back into churn.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained 1.6% for the week. IWM started the week with an impressive 3.1% surge where I took profits on my IWM call spread. You guessed it again. I bought a fresh IWM call spread when IWM dropped to the 20% line (see below) on Friday. I really stretched on this position with a March 04\/18 $215\/$210 calendar call spread configuration. This position gives IWM room to rally. If IWM drops further and tests the recent lows, I will reload on a fresh IWM call spread position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/8pOwuSew\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/8pOwuSew\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) slowed its descent to the pre-pandemic high. However, IWM is struggling to stay out of bear market territory.\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/8pOwuSew\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">iShares Russell 2000 ETF<\/a> (IWM) essentially retested the top of the bear market line before rebounding for a 0.4% gain.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"stock-market-volatility\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) provided the best visual of the week&#8217;s wild prince swings. The VIX dropped 10.5% and 11.4% the first two days of the week. It held steady on Wednesday and of course popped again on Thursday. The VIX ended the week with a 16.1% drop, but it never broke through the critical 20 level. I fully expect the VIX to remain elevated in the coming week. I am also bracing for the next VIX surge; once a month seems about right given the current patterns and the current upside bias. Timing these surges is not attractive with the stock market close to oversold. Instead, I will embrace the next surge as a fresh opportunity to fade the VIX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/x07JyJEc\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/x07JyJEc\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) faded sharply to start the week but did not quite test the critical 20 level. A slight uptrend continues from the January lows.\" title=\"volatility index (VIX)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/x07JyJEc\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">volatility index<\/a> (VIX) faded sharply to start the week but did not quite test the critical 20 level. A slight uptrend continues from the January lows.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-short-term-trading-call-with-wild-price-swings\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call with Wild Price Swings<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/fML1oCHo\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">MMFI<\/a>) = 30.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/o5raGC57\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\">MMTH<\/a>) = 32.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: bullish<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50<\/a> (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, surged to start the week. My favorite technical indicator closed that first day at 29.4%. AT50 made slight progress from there with a 30.0% close for the week. At these levels, AT50 remains &#8220;close enough&#8221; to oversold. Accordingly, my short-term trading call remains bullish. I want to buy dips in the major indices in this zone. Buying individual stocks remains quite hazardous given the wild price swings following earnings reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The week&#8217;s trading action validated my claim that the earlier extremes &#8220;created a <strong><em>sustainable<\/em><\/strong> bottom.&#8221; However, beyond the brief breakout above the churn zones, I have little confidence the indices can pop above stiffer resistance levels. The S&amp;P 500 and IWM must contend with a downtrending 50DMAs. The NASDAQ must contend with even more ominous converging 50 and 200DMAs. As these moving averages decline, I will likely need to revisit my short-term trading call. Until the big tests come, I expect the stock market to churn away: churn rules everything around market stocks (CREAMS). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/sJ5iOtAL\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/sJ5iOtAL\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks above their respective 50DMAs, surged the first two days of the week but ran out of gas for the rest of the week.\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/sJ5iOtAL\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AT50 (MMFI)<\/a>, the percentage of stocks above their respective 50DMAs, surged the first two days of the week but ran out of gas for the rest of the week.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/o5raGC57\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/o5raGC57\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH), the percentage of stocks above their respective 200DMAs, failed to escape its churn zone and remains stuck in a telling downtrend.\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/o5raGC57\/?offer_id=10&amp;aff_id=29373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AT200<b> (MMTH)<\/b><\/a><b>, the percentage of stocks above their respective 200DMAs,<\/b> failed to escape its churn zone and remains stuck in a telling downtrend.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods<\/strong>:<\/strong> Day #455 over 20%, Day #1 over 30% (overperiod), Day #14 under 40%, Day #22 under 50%, Day #55 under 60%, Day #235 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure: long QQQ call spread and short QQQ call spread, long IWM call spreads, long SPY call spread<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary: The churn zones continued to hold sway over the market last week. Buyers effectively fought off a descent into a bear market by rallying the major indices up and out of the churn zone. Still, the narrative of churn stands thanks to a refresh of fear from Facebook&#8217;s post-earnings blow-up. Meta Platforms, &#8230; <a title=\"Churn Zones Hold Against Wild Price Swings &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2022\/02\/04\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[219,62,982],"tags":[1820,2832,1955,2218,909,413,65,362,303,931],"class_list":["post-58941","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-high-tech","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-compqx","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Churn Zones Hold Against Wild Price Swings - The Market Breadth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Wild price swings were the rule in a week that produced net gains for the stock market indices. 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The indices ended the week in the churn zones.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/220204_SPY-SP500.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/04\\\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/04\\\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"headline\":\"Churn Zones Hold Against Wild Price Swings &#8211; The Market Breadth\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-05T04:54:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-06T02:32:38+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/04\\\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1123,\"commentCount\":7,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/04\\\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/220204_SPY-SP500.png\",\"keywords\":[\"AT200\",\"AT50\",\"COMPQX\",\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF\",\"IWM\",\"NASDAQ\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"SPY\",\"VIX\",\"volatility index\"],\"articleSection\":[\"High Tech\",\"Technical Analysis\",\"Trading Range\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/04\\\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/04\\\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/04\\\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\\\/\",\"name\":\"Churn Zones Hold Against Wild Price Swings - The Market Breadth\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/04\\\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/04\\\/churn-zones-hold-against-wild-price-swings-the-market-breadth\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/220204_SPY-SP500.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-05T04:54:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-06T02:32:38+00:00\",\"description\":\"Wild price swings were the rule in a week that produced net gains for the stock market indices. 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