{"id":58345,"date":"2021-12-11T01:02:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-11T09:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=58345"},"modified":"2021-12-11T01:09:41","modified_gmt":"2021-12-11T09:09:41","slug":"why-did-peloton-interactive-sink-on-analyst-rating-allowing-20-percent-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/12\/11\/why-did-peloton-interactive-sink-on-analyst-rating-allowing-20-percent-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Did Peloton Interactive Sink On An Analyst Rating Allowing 20% Upside?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/peloton-downgrades-by-credit-suisse-which-slashes-price-target-to-50-2021-12-10\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Credit Suisse downgraded<\/a> Peloton Interactive (PTON) from outperform to neutral. The analyst at Credit Suisse also slashed their price target from $112 to $50. Despite a price target higher than the previous day&#8217;s closing price of $40.70, PTON still fell 5.4% to $38.51 and a 19-month low. So why did PTON sink on an analyst rating allowing 25% upside?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/svhfrcpS\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/svhfrcpS\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/svhfrcpS\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Peloton Interactive<\/a> (PTON) is down 76% from its all-time high a year ago. A Credit Suisse downgrade applied fresh pressure to the selling initiated by a 35% post-earnings loss last month.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>A price target with 25%+ upside from current prices looks like a buy signal. However, the psychology of a downgrade can weigh heavy right past the price target. This belated bout of pessimism helped remind investors of the downside surprise from earnings. Credit Suisse called out &#8220;improving mobility and a return to in-person fitness after a strong 2021.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More importantly, Credit Suisse warned &#8220;Peloton has been increasing advertising and discounting more to fight slowing demand, which change[s] the economic model.&#8221; This reported change is damaging because Peloton Interactive&#8217;s business has sunk back into negative quarterly operating income after just four quarters of small operating income at the height of the company&#8217;s revenues. An increase in spending in the face of slowing demand threatens deepening losses at a time when <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/12\/01\/j-pow-hawkish-jawboning-sparked-fresh-market-jolt-the-market-breadth\/\">the stock market is penalizing unprofitable (or expensive) growth<\/a>. In other words, Credit Suisse conjured up images of on-going downward momentum in the business and thus the stock&#8217;s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/0LzvNs6C\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/0LzvNs6C\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/0LzvNs6C\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Peloton Interactive<\/a> (PTON) peaked just ahead of peak quarterly revenue. Negative operating income ended hopes for a recovery back to all-time highs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>(Note I highly doubt <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/3779271-peloton-interactive-slides-after-getting-caught-up-in-hbo-plot-twist\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Peloton&#8217;s appearance in a fictional, tragic storyline<\/a> had anything to do with the stock&#8217;s decline on the day. If so, THAT reaction is definitely something to fade.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Potential Analyst Downside To Come<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/PTON\/ratings\/sell-side-ratings\">Analysts remain overall bullish on PTON with an average price target of $77.56<\/a>. Accordingly, there remains plenty of room for bullishness to turn bearish in cascading bouts of analyst capitulation. Credit Suisse signaled this downshift is on-going and could bring lower and lower price targets. In fact, according to Seeking Alpha, analysts slowly backed away from PTON after an initial rush of post-IPO optimism. As a group, analysts were slow to appreciate pandemic-drive tailwinds. The last earnings report accelerated the ratings downtrend as analysts recognize the waning tailwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/211210_PTON-Peloton-Interactive-analyst-ratings-history.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2600\" height=\"900\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/211210_PTON-Peloton-Interactive-analyst-ratings-history.png\" alt=\"The Peloton Interactive (PTON) analyst ratings history has steadily declined since the beginning of 2020, a full year before the stock actually peaked.\" class=\"wp-image-58348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/211210_PTON-Peloton-Interactive-analyst-ratings-history.png 2600w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/211210_PTON-Peloton-Interactive-analyst-ratings-history-768x266.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/211210_PTON-Peloton-Interactive-analyst-ratings-history-1536x532.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/211210_PTON-Peloton-Interactive-analyst-ratings-history-2048x709.png 2048w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/211210_PTON-Peloton-Interactive-analyst-ratings-history-1320x457.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2600px) 100vw, 2600px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The Peloton Interactive (PTON) analyst ratings history has steadily declined since the beginning of 2020, a full year before the stock actually peaked. (Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/PTON\/ratings\/sell-side-ratings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Seeking Alpha<\/a>)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Trade<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Even with the end of the pandemic-driven tailwinds, PTON is making a lot money. At some point, the company should find a way to return to profitability with a lower run rate. Evidence of such an achievement should signal stabilization and even a bottom in the stock. Peloton clearly recognizes action is necessary. From <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4465784-peloton-interactive-inc-pton-ceo-john-foley-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the Seeking Alpha transcript<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>&#8220;&#8230;we are taking significant corrective actions to improve our profitability outlook, which will impact the back half of fiscal year 2022 and into fiscal year 2023. While it&#8217;s important for us to optimize fixed cost across the company, we won&#8217;t compromise our Net Promoter Score position in the process. We remain committed to our goal of winning Connected Fitness and our long-term thesis of fitness moving into the home is unchanged.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the market is in &#8220;prove it&#8221; mode. FY 2023 feels like an eternity away. Accordingly, the downward price momentum looks headed at least to a complete reversal of PTON&#8217;s first pandemic era breakout. (I am also positioned for such a move with a put spread). PTON broke out above $35 just ahead of May, 2020 earnings which drove the stock up 16% and launched an epic uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long PTON put spread<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Credit Suisse downgraded Peloton Interactive (PTON) from outperform to neutral. The analyst at Credit Suisse also slashed their price target from $112 to $50. Despite a price target higher than the previous day&#8217;s closing price of $40.70, PTON still fell 5.4% to $38.51 and a 19-month low. So why did PTON sink on an analyst &#8230; <a title=\"Why Did Peloton Interactive Sink On An Analyst Rating Allowing 20% Upside?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/12\/11\/why-did-peloton-interactive-sink-on-analyst-rating-allowing-20-percent-upside\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[393,220,1576],"tags":[2284,2282],"class_list":["post-58345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analyst-coverage","category-earnings","category-entertainment","tag-peloton-interactive","tag-pton"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Did Peloton Interactive Sink On Analyst Rating Allowing 20% Upside?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Credit Suisse downgraded Peloton Interactive with a price target still 20% higher than price at that time. 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