{"id":57492,"date":"2021-08-09T01:22:30","date_gmt":"2021-08-09T08:22:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=57492"},"modified":"2021-08-10T09:56:12","modified_gmt":"2021-08-10T16:56:12","slug":"market-breadth-a-breadth-divergence-mutes-the-mood","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/08\/09\/market-breadth-a-breadth-divergence-mutes-the-mood\/","title":{"rendered":"A Breadth Divergence Mutes the Mood &#8211; The Market Breadth (August 6, 2021)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether market breadth wanes or rallies, the stock market just maintains an upward drift through the path of least resistance. Last week, short-term market breadth partially improved thanks to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/empsit_08062021.htm\">a strong July jobs report<\/a>. The <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/07\/31\/market-breadth-weakness-lingers-as-oversold-rebound-cools\/\">lingering weakness<\/a> from the previous week receded just enough to given the stock market a more bullish tint. However, under the covers, long-term market breadth has significantly lagged short-term market breadth. The breadth divergence gives me a new dynamic to worry about even as I ride the market&#8217;s upward drift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) stayed locked in drift until the last day of the week. The jobs report helped nudge the index to a new marginal all-time high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/rI9DYfxL\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/rI9DYfxL\/\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) gained 0.9% and stretched for an all-time high.\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/rI9DYfxL\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> (SPY) gained 0.2% and closed at an all-time high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQX) had a very slight upward bias for most of the week. The tech-laden index had its time in the sun on Thursday with a 0.8% gain and all-time high. The NASDAQ closed the week with a slight pullback from that all-time high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/a8WZuZjX\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/a8WZuZjX\/\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQX) gained 0.7% to end a week the strung together a series of all-time highs.\"\/><\/a><figcaption><em><strong>T<b>he <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/a8WZuZjX\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NASDAQ<\/a><b> (COMPQX) <\/b>lost 0.4% off its all-time high.<\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>The iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) continues to make no progress overall. However, it out-performed the other major indices in the wake of the jobs report. I am looking for a breakout above the 50-day moving average (DMA) (red line below) to make a trade on a return to the top of the 2021 trading range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/z0sj2Zpq\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/eNJWnV5Y\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/eNJWnV5Y\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index ETF<\/a> (IWM) gained 0.6% but pulled away from overhead 50DMA resistance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) consolidated for almost two weeks. The VIX looked ready for a fresh pop until the jobs report brought out the faders in full force. A 6.5% loss took the VIX right to 16.2 and confirmed stiff resistance at the 20 level for this round of trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/c326APyg\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/c326APyg\/\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) continues to cling to the 20 threshold.\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/c326APyg\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">volatility index<\/a> (VIX) broke down from recent consolidation and lost 6.5%.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call As Market Breadth Makes Gains<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-8746fb62-8c65-4cd8-aa26-5b377e48018f\"><li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 43.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 62.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li><li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT50 (MMFI)<\/a>, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50DMAs, managed to close the week at a near 1-month high. The modest progress provided fresh fuel for my cautiously bullish short-term trading call. However, suddenly, AT200 (MMTH), the percentage of <span style=\"font-size: revert; color: initial; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif;\">stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, is a concerning laggard. <\/span>This indicator of longer-term market breadth finished net down for the week and has made precious little progress since <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/07\/20\/t2108-update-declining-market-breadth-resolved-into-an-oversold-trading-period\/\">July&#8217;s oversold trading<\/a>. This kind of significant divergence between AT50 and AT200 is rare. For now I interpret the divergence as a reason to stay cautious!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/d7HU9kEW\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/d7HU9kEW\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>Percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/d7HU9kEW\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView.com<\/a> (MMFI)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ETlqS4Pt\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ETlqS4Pt\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em>Percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200-day moving averages (DMAs) according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ETlqS4Pt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView.com<\/a> (MMTH)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Chart Reviews &#8211; Below the 50DMA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Uber Technologies, Inc.<\/strong> (UBER)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/07\/31\/market-breadth-weakness-lingers-as-oversold-rebound-cools\/\">My pre-earnings trade<\/a> on Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) netted out exactly flat. Both the short calls and long puts went out worthless. I capped gains on shares too fast with a fresh short call expiring this week. UBER was down as much as 8% in after hours trading and opened down about 4%. Buyers took over from there and created a bullish engulfing bottom. If my covered call position survives the week, I will hold on to the shares with a stop below the post-earnings intraday low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/6TDWPhe9\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/JYywrde8\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/6TDWPhe9\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Uber Technologies, Inc.<\/a> (UBER) rebounded sharply from an initial post-earnings gap down.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>GoDaddy, Inc.<\/strong> (GDDY)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>After a 2-month sprint off the pandemic lows, GoDaddy, Inc. (GDDY) has remained stuck in a trading range with a subtle upward drift. This upward bias came to an abrupt end with a 9-month low. GDDY could be a trade to return to the top of the trading after it shoves its way to a close above the intraday post-earnings high. Otherwise, the stock looks like it has downside risk to the lows of the trading range set in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/T9Umcy6b\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/T9Umcy6b\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/T9Umcy6b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">GoDaddy Inc.<\/a> (GDDY) lost 12.4% post-earnings and closed the week at a 9-month low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jack In the Box<\/strong> (JACK)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Casual dining not named Chipotle or Dominos continue to struggle. Jack in the Box (JACK) became the latest casual dining (or fast food) establishment to tumble post-earnings. JACK tumbled 2.7% and suffered a 200DMA breakdown. Buyers bought the stock off a 5-month low but quickly retreated from overhead resistance at the 200DMA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/eAft6UNM\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/eAft6UNM\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/eAft6UNM\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Jack In the Box<\/a> (JACK) attempted a recovery from a post-earnings gap down, but the stock faded sharply from overhead 200DMA resistance.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>CMC Materials, Inc<\/strong> (CCMP)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Semiconductor materials company CMC Materials, Inc (CCMP) struggled to make progress for 15 months. Two consecutive poor post-earnings performances dropped CCMP to prices last seen in May, 2020. This sell-off is quite bearish for CCMP. However, at this juncture, I prefer to look for signs of life to bet on a recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/WQQu4sVf\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/WQQu4sVf\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/KFLgFVLG\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CMC Materials, Inc (CCMP) <\/a><\/em><\/strong>lost 0.6% a day after losing 14.4% post-earnings. CCMP trades at a 15-month low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Maxar Technologies<\/strong> (MAXR)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I followed an analyst upgrade on Maxar Technologies (MAXR) right into a post-earnings disappointment. Only an 8.1% rebound on strong volume on Friday keeps me in the stock. A close below the post-earnings intraday low will take me out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/9glpl1Y6\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/9glpl1Y6\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/WQtJMKDc\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Maxar Technlogies Inc<\/a> (MAXR) gained 8.1% a day after losing 14.4% post-earnings.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Chart Reviews &#8211; Above the 50DMA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Micron Technology, Inc<\/strong> (MU)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Micron Technology, Inc (MU) meandered downward from the 2021 highs for almost 4 months. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/02\/25\/t2108-update-another-swift-drop-in-stocks-paved-way-for-fresh-buying-power\/\">Back in February<\/a>, I made an ill-fated bet on MU finally cracking the $100 level. A confirmed 200 and 50DMA breakout has MU back in bullish shape. MU could eventually make another run for $100. I am a buyer here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ety0DUGg\/\" alt=\"\"\/><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/ety0DUGg\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Micron Technology<\/a> (MU) confirmed both a 50DMA and 200DMA breakout.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>QuinStreet<\/strong>, Inc (QNST)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Internet performance marketing company QuinStreet, Inc (QNST) appeared to break the gloomy spell in place since the February peak. However, sellers descended quickly on Thursday&#8217;s post-earnings gap up over 200DMA resistance. The selling was strong enough to nearly push QNST into another test of 50DMA support. On net, QNST remains in limbo. I am not a buyer until a close above the 200DMA. The stock could be a short below the previous trading range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/JTxdT02k\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/JTxdT02k\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/JTxdT02k\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">QuinStreet, Inc<\/a> (QNST) gapped well above its 200DMA post-earnings. However, sellers stepped right in and have faded two straight days.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods<\/strong>:<\/strong> Day #331 over 21%, Day #14 over 31%, Day #2 over 41% (overperiod), Day #25 under 51% (underperiod), Day #37 under 62%, Day #101 under 72%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Grammar checked by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thesaurus.com\/grammarcoach\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Grammar Coach<\/a> from Thesaurus.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure<\/strong>: long UVXY call spread, long MAXR, long UBER covered call<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary Whether market breadth wanes or rallies, the stock market just maintains an upward drift through the path of least resistance. Last week, short-term market breadth partially improved thanks to a strong July jobs report. The lingering weakness from the previous week receded just enough to given the stock market a more bullish &#8230; <a title=\"A Breadth Divergence Mutes the Mood &#8211; The Market Breadth (August 6, 2021)\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/08\/09\/market-breadth-a-breadth-divergence-mutes-the-mood\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1303,483,482,1862,1054,219,599,512,796,511,62,982,518,920],"tags":[1820,2832,830,2851,1955,2848,2847,2630,909,2047,2849,2756,2757,2563,2833,2750,1669,413,2852,2853,65,362,226,2186,2407,303],"class_list":["post-57492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bottom","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-business-services","category-dining","category-high-tech","category-internet","category-resistance","category-semiconductors","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","category-transportation","category-uptrend","tag-at200","tag-at50","tag-ccmp","tag-cmc-materials-inc","tag-compqx","tag-gddy","tag-godaddy-inc","tag-ishares-trust-russell-2000-index-etf","tag-iwm","tag-jack","tag-jack-in-the-box","tag-maxar-technologies","tag-maxr","tag-micron-technology","tag-mmfi","tag-mmth","tag-mu","tag-nasdaq","tag-qnst","tag-quinstreet-inc","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2108","tag-uber","tag-uber-technologies","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Breadth Divergence Mutes the Mood<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Long-term market breadth has lagged short-term breadth. 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