{"id":56846,"date":"2021-05-26T07:29:11","date_gmt":"2021-05-26T14:29:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=56846"},"modified":"2021-05-26T07:30:40","modified_gmt":"2021-05-26T14:30:40","slug":"realtors-rebound-despite-housings-supply-shortage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/05\/26\/realtors-rebound-despite-housings-supply-shortage\/","title":{"rendered":"Realtors Rebound Despite Housing&#8217;s Supply Shortage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">2 of 15: There are now more Realtors than listings.<\/p>&mdash; Glenn Kelman (@glennkelman) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glennkelman\/status\/1397189638398349317?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 25, 2021<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I heard this tweet referenced twice in the financial media: the first time unsourced and the second time sourced. I must assume that the bizarre data points of the U.S. housing market from Glenn Kelman, Redfin&#8217;s CEO, went viral. Redfin&#8217;s commentary and observations on the housing market are typically astute and insightful, but this particular observation &#8211; &#8220;there are now more Realtors than listings&#8221; &#8211; called me to track down the original data (I am surprised Kelman did not provide his references). I cobbled together a few data points that tell me that realtors have outnumbered listings for quite some time. However, the data provide stark reminders of a housing market suffering from an extreme supply shortage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Inventory Shortage, Realtor Glut?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/05\/01\/housing-market-review-april-2021-strong-start-spring-selling-season\/\">previous Housing Market Reviews<\/a>, I referenced plunging inventories of existing and new homes across the country and an outright implosion of active listings in California. California is not alone. Active listings across the U.S. imploded during the pandemic following a multi-year downtrend. From February, 2020 to April, 2021, active listings fell slightly over 50%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1168\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/210525_US-Active-Listings.png\" alt=\"Active listings of single family homes, condos, and townhomes plunged from 1M to 500K over the course of the pandemic.\" class=\"wp-image-56850\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/210525_US-Active-Listings.png 1168w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/210525_US-Active-Listings-768x296.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1168px) 100vw, 1168px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>Active listings of single family homes, condos, and townhomes plunged from 1M to 500K over the course of the pandemic. Source: Realtor.com, Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in the United States [ACTLISCOUUS], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/ACTLISCOUUS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, May 26, 2021.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/196269\/us-national-association-of-realtors-number-of-members-since-1910\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Statista provides membership data for the National Association of Realtors<\/a> (NAR). Nearly all these members should be licensed realtors. According to these data, the U.S. had 1.45M realtors in 2020. That number exceeds the active listings from 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<center><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/196269\/us-national-association-of-realtors-number-of-members-since-1910\/\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/graphic\/1\/196269\/us-national-association-of-realtors-number-of-members-since-1910.jpg\" alt=\"Statistic: Number of National Association of Realtors members in the United States from 2009 to 2020 (in millions) | Statista\" style=\"width: 100%; height: auto !important; max-width:1000px;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;\"><\/a><br>Find more statistics at  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\" rel=\"nofollow\">Statista<\/a><\/center>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Since Statista does not have partial 2021 data, I turned to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/empsit_05072021.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs data<\/a> for a count of all employees in real estate. Assuming the rebound of these employees reflects a similar rebound in realtors, I can safely assume that 2021&#8217;s number of realtors is the same, if not higher, than 2020&#8217;s count.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/fredgraph.png?g=EgW6\" alt=\"\"\/><figcaption><strong><em>Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Real Estate [CES5553100001], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/CES5553100001\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, May 26, 2021.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Employment in the industry rebounded sharply from the pandemic lows. Now near the pre-pandemic high, realtors may soon face down a kind of labor supply glut if housing inventory fails to respond to the ending of the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Other Reference Points<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Just for other reference points, <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/fredgraph.png?g=EgWo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">I added together the annualized new and existing homes for sale<\/a>. For April, 2021, that combined number is 1.46M, exactly the same number of realtors. March&#8217;s total was 1.35M. (The NAR only provides the last 12 months of data).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1168\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/210525_Existing-and-New-Homes-for-Sale.png\" alt=\"Existing and New Homes for Sale\" class=\"wp-image-56854\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/210525_Existing-and-New-Homes-for-Sale.png 1168w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/210525_Existing-and-New-Homes-for-Sale-768x296.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1168px) 100vw, 1168px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>Existing and New Homes for Sale. Source: National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales: Housing Inventory [HOSINVUSM495N], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/HOSINVUSM495N\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>; U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Homes for Sale in the United States [HNFSEPUSSA], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/HNFSEPUSSA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, May 26, 2021.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Notably, existing home inventory finally increased month-over-month. However,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/housing-statistics\/existing-home-sales\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> sales for existing homes actually declined<\/a>. This divergence warrants close watching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps most representative of the recency of Gelman&#8217;s observation is the active listing count versus the &#8220;offices of real estate agents and brokers.&#8221; FRED includes data for California and New York but not nationally. The graph below shows the ratio for California. Starting December, 2020, active listings dropped below the number of real estate agents and brokers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/210525_California-Active-Listings-vs-Real-Estate-Agents.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1168\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/210525_California-Active-Listings-vs-Real-Estate-Agents.png\" alt=\"In California, the number of active listings fell below the number of real estate agents starting December, 2020.\" class=\"wp-image-56847\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/210525_California-Active-Listings-vs-Real-Estate-Agents.png 1168w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/210525_California-Active-Listings-vs-Real-Estate-Agents-768x296.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1168px) 100vw, 1168px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>In California, the number of active listings fell below the number of real estate agents starting December, 2020. <strong><em>Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, All Employees: Financial Activities: Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers in California [SMU06000005553120001SA], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/SMU06000005553120001SA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>; Realtor.com, Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in California [ACTLISCOUCA], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/ACTLISCOUCA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, May 25, 2021.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Trade<\/strong> (intraday snapshots)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Given the dearth of housing inventory, I am surprised the real estate service companies that rely on transactions are doing so well. For example, Realogy (RLGY), which includes well-known real estate brands like Century 21, Coldwell Banker, Sotheby&#8217;s International Realty, and Better Homes and Gardens, sits comfortably at 27-month highs. RLGY rebounded from its pandemic low around $2.00 with brief pullbacks along the way to today&#8217;s highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/dfV6x1vC\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/dfV6x1vC\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/dfV6x1vC\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Realogy<\/a> (RLGY) is enjoying an epic rebound&#8230;as if the pandemic was good for business and improved business!<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Zillow Group (ZG) and Redfin (RDFN) show more of the recent pain of limited inventories and constraints on transactions. Both ZG and RDFN are well off all-time highs and down significantly year-to-date. Both stocks peaked at all-time highs in February and suffered during <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/04\/04\/t2108-update-as-growth-tantrum-calms-stock-market-extends-bullish-signals\/\">the growth tantrum<\/a> that took down stocks with high revenue growth (or growth potential), low to negative earnings, and extremely high valuations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/e2ywjP17\/\" alt=\"\"\/><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/e2ywjP17\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Zillow Group<\/a> (ZG) is drifting off a 6-month low after suffering a 50% retrenchment from its all-time high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/C2ZwOhf5\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/C2ZwOhf5\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/C2ZwOhf5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Redfin<\/a> (RDFN) is sharply rebounding from a 6-month low which represented a 50% collapse from the all-time high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>RDFN suffered large losses after both of this year&#8217;s earnings reports. ZG did well at its first of the year, but the stock plunged after the company&#8217;s second earnings report. However, both stocks are now in bottoming processes. RDFN is sprinting off its bottom. Accordingly, it has a decent chance to break through stiff overhead resistance from its 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs). ZG is drifting higher and should experience a greater challenge breaking out. Since ZG looks relatively weaker, I dipped my toe into a June put spread on the stock. Both stocks become buys on breakouts above resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long ZG put spread<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I heard this tweet referenced twice in the financial media: the first time unsourced and the second time sourced. I must assume that the bizarre data points of the U.S. housing market from Glenn Kelman, Redfin&#8217;s CEO, went viral. Redfin&#8217;s commentary and observations on the housing market are typically astute and insightful, but this particular &#8230; <a title=\"Realtors Rebound Despite Housing&#8217;s Supply Shortage\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/05\/26\/realtors-rebound-despite-housings-supply-shortage\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1303,59,35,512,62],"tags":[1053,1149,2771,1692,321,84,2151,977,1738,2152],"class_list":["post-56846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bottom","category-economy","category-housing","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","tag-california","tag-existing-home-sales","tag-housing-inventory","tag-nar","tag-national-association-of-realtors","tag-real-estate","tag-redfin","tag-z","tag-zg","tag-zillow-group"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Realtors Rebound Despite Housing&#039;s Supply 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