{"id":56694,"date":"2021-05-03T00:43:09","date_gmt":"2021-05-03T07:43:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=56694"},"modified":"2021-05-03T00:43:13","modified_gmt":"2021-05-03T07:43:13","slug":"sell-in-may-and-go-away-now-throwaway-adage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/05\/03\/sell-in-may-and-go-away-now-throwaway-adage\/","title":{"rendered":"Sell In May and Go Away: Now A Throwaway Adage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Sell In May?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Sell in May&#8221; is an old stock market adage that advises investors to sell in May and leave the stock market alone until November. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/s\/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investopedia<\/a>, the adage identifies May through October as a period of under-performance. The adage survives despite its persistently poor performance as a stand-alone strategy. For example, the average underperformance is not average negative performance. Instead, the performance falls short of the seasonal strength from November through April. Exiting the market during from May through October leaves money on the table in an effort to sidestep the big drawdowns that can occur during <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/12\/01\/sp500-historic-october-drawdown-bled-into-november\/\">the most dangerous months<\/a> of the year. Investors should instead build cash to <strong><em>buy<\/em><\/strong> into those drawdowns. Buying <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">the extremes of the market<\/a> can enhance returns. The adage is now a throwaway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Do Not (Automatically) Sell In May<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I created scenarios to quantify the poor performance of the sell in May adage. I examined the performance of the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) during May, the summer months (June through August), and the &#8220;go away&#8221; months of June through October using the 71 years from 1950 to 2020 (inclusive). For each time period I counted out the occurrence of positive performance over the 71 years. The table below summarizes the results as a percentage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, the 59% for the &#8220;Positive May&#8221; time period from 1950-2020 means 42 of the 71 years from 1950-2020 delivered a month of May with a positive performance for the S&amp;P 500. Not only does May tend to deliver upside for investors, but also the summer AND the go away periods tend to deliver positive performances. In all but one case, these counts are even better so far in the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Time Period<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>1950-2020<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2000-2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Positive May<\/strong><\/td><td>59%<\/td><td>67%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Positive Summer<\/strong><\/td><td>63%<\/td><td>62%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Positive summer after negative May<\/strong><\/td><td>55%<\/td><td>57%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>May + Summer better than May<\/strong><\/td><td>63%<\/td><td>62%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Positive Go Away<\/strong><\/td><td>72%<\/td><td>76%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>May + Go Away better than May<\/strong><\/td><td>72%<\/td><td>76%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Even a negative May performance does not suggest a negative summer lies ahead. More than 50% of the years with a negative May delivered a positive summer. Moreover, combining May with either the summer or the entire go away period delivers a better performance than May alone. Timing the year when a significant drawdown warrants selling in May and going away appears futile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Strength in Numbers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The following scatterplot juxtaposes the performance of May with the subsequent summer performance for a given year. The graph shows the magnitude of positive and negative periods. The green shading indicates positive Mays. The light green indicates years with both positive Mays and summers. The black dots indicate negative Mays. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1684\" height=\"1012\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/image.png\" alt=\"A Sell In May Visual for the S&amp;P 500: May vs Summer Performance, 1950 to 2020\" class=\"wp-image-56699\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/image.png 1684w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/image-768x462.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/image-1536x923.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/image-1320x793.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1684px) 100vw, 1684px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>In the majority of years, May and\/or the summer deliver positive and even strong performances for the S&amp;P 500 (Source for data: <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/%5EGSPC\/history?p=%5EGSPC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yahoo Finance<\/a>)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Note how the data are skewed towards negative performance. These outliers create low averages. However, the positive performances have the strength in counts as demonstrated by the medians in the table below showing S&amp;P 500 performance for the different scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Years<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Period<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Average<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Median<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>1950 &#8211; 2020<\/strong><\/td><td>May<\/td><td>0.2%<\/td><td>1.1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><\/td><td>Summer<\/td><td>1.3%<\/td><td>2.0%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><\/td><td>Go Away<\/td><td>1.4%<\/td><td>2.8%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>2000 &#8211; 2020<\/strong><\/td><td>May<\/td><td>0.3%<\/td><td>1.2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><\/td><td>Summer<\/td><td>0.8%<\/td><td>2.5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><\/td><td>Go Away<\/td><td>0.9%<\/td><td>1.4%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I posted all the data and analysis <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Q-ePPgJGsxxFx-S_9UK10UdNY7aHVXCLxw6b3k5IB8c\/edit?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">in a Google spreadsheet<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long SPY puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Why Sell In May? &#8220;Sell in May&#8221; is an old stock market adage that advises investors to sell in May and leave the stock market alone until November. According to Investopedia, the adage identifies May through October as a period of under-performance. The adage survives despite its persistently poor performance as a stand-alone strategy. For &#8230; <a title=\"Sell In May and Go Away: Now A Throwaway Adage\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/05\/03\/sell-in-may-and-go-away-now-throwaway-adage\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[997],"tags":[2748,65,583,362],"class_list":["post-56694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-analysis","tag-adage","tag-sp-500","tag-sell-in-may","tag-spy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Sell In May and Go Away: Now A Throwaway Adage<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The old 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