{"id":5663,"date":"2011-06-20T18:48:39","date_gmt":"2011-06-20T22:48:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=5663"},"modified":"2011-06-20T18:53:05","modified_gmt":"2011-06-20T22:53:05","slug":"t2108-update-110620","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/06\/20\/t2108-update-110620\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update &#8211; June 20, 2011"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/T2108.htm\">T2108 Resource Page<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p><strong>T2108 Status<\/strong>: 25% and neutral.<br \/>\n<strong>VIX Status<\/strong>: 20; reversed gains from the last day of last oversold period.<br \/>\n<strong>General (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Commentary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T2108 rose slightly to 25% on another lackluster trading day. I am suspecting that the market wants to put on a &#8220;good show&#8221; for the Federal Reserve&#8217;s meeting on Wednesday morning to remind the voting members just how much the stock market needs and deserves another round of quantitative easing. Remember how it seemed the market&#8217;s sell-off would worsen just in time for every Fed meeting when Greenspan was busy cutting rates after the tech bubble burst?<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, this two-day bounce out of the oversold period has been unimpressive (and I am NOT just saying that because my favorite oversold plays, Apple {AAPL} and Google {GOOG}, have been duds so far!). I am seeing some stark dichotomy in performance across industries and sectors. For example, AAPL&#8217;s ominously poor relative performance out of the oversold period stands in stark contrast to the nice 3% move in Caterpillar (CAT). Or the 5% gain for First Solar (FSLR) versus the 4% loss for Trina Solar (4%). This behavior makes it much harder to pick potential winners and losers for these short-term trades. I may need to stick to the indices until I can understand better what may be happening. <\/p>\n<p>The Fed&#8217;s jawboning on Wednesday is a large wildcard, but if our favorite currency crushers do not dish out the goods the market wants, I am expecting stocks to plunge very quickly back into oversold territory. I am shopping puts (and some shorts) in some of the poorer performing speculative stocks, especially in tech.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<em>Charts below are the <strong>latest<\/strong> snapshots of T2108 (and the S&#038;P 500)<\/em><br \/>\nRefresh browser if the charts are the same as the last T2108 update.<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>Daily T2108 vs the S&#038;P 500<\/strong><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.jpg\" width=\"525\" height=\"356\" alt=\"T2108 vs. the S&#038;P 500 (DAILY)\" title=\"T2108 vs. the S&#038;P 500 (DAILY)\"><\/p>\n<p>Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Red line: S&#038;P 500 (for comparative purposes)<br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<strong>Weekly T2108<\/strong><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.jpg\" width=\"525\" height=\"354\" alt=\"Weekly T2108\" title=\"Weekly T2108\"><br \/>\n*<strong>All charts created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/Content\/Banners\/images\/88x31.gif\"><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Related links:<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/T2108.htm\">The T2108 Resource Page<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily.jpg\">Expanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&#038;P 500<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly.jpg\">Expanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long SSO puts, AAPL call, GOOG calls, FSLR, and TSL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page.) T2108 Status: 25% and neutral. VIX Status: 20; reversed gains from the last day of last oversold period. General (Short-term) Trading Call: Hold. Commentary T2108 rose slightly to 25% on another &#8230; <a title=\"T2108 Update &#8211; June 20, 2011\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/06\/20\/t2108-update-110620\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-5663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>T2108 Update - June 20, 2011 - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/06\/20\/t2108-update-110620\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update - June 20, 2011 - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page.) T2108 Status: 25% and neutral. VIX Status: 20; reversed gains from the last day of last oversold period. General (Short-term) Trading Call: Hold. Commentary T2108 rose slightly to 25% on another ... 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