{"id":56073,"date":"2021-02-27T00:17:08","date_gmt":"2021-02-27T08:17:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=56073"},"modified":"2021-02-27T00:17:10","modified_gmt":"2021-02-27T08:17:10","slug":"rising-mortgage-rates-record-high-lumber-prices-weigh-on-home-builders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/02\/27\/rising-mortgage-rates-record-high-lumber-prices-weigh-on-home-builders\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising Mortgage Rates, Record High Lumber Prices Weigh On Home Builders"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Mortgage rates are on the rise following record high lumber prices. Together, these measures are starting to weigh on the stocks of home builders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>30-Year Mortgage Rate<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The 30-Year fixed rate mortgage average in the United States hit 2.97% on Thursday, February 25th. Not only is this rate a 6-month high, but also the rise appeared to form a bottoming for rates. By surpassing the former peak of 2.79% on January 14th and leaving behind a trough, the 30-year formed the higher high and higher low that typically mark an uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/graph-landing.php?g=Bqk7&amp;width=670&amp;height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" allowtransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Source: Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States [MORTGAGE30US], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/MORTGAGE30US\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>; February 26, 2021.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Record High Lumber Prices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Lumber prices were making record highs when the <a href=\"https:\/\/nahbnow.com\/2020\/08\/wto-finds-in-canadas-favor-in-softwood-lumber-dispute\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled against lumber tariffs<\/a> applied by the U.S. on Canada. After a dip, a rally, and another dip, lumber prices are back to record highs. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) marked the milestone by complaining <a href=\"https:\/\/nahbnow.com\/2021\/02\/record-high-lumber-prices-add-24k-to-the-price-of-a-new-home\/?_ga=2.114177732.2112528628.1614290501-1046236997.1614290501\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">these record prices add $24K to the price of a single-family home<\/a>. Since the breakout on February 9th, lumber prices have continued to drift higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/n6z6sTcH\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/n6z6sTcH\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/n6z6sTcH\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Lumber prices<\/a> have been on the move for over a month and are now drifting around all-time highs.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Home Builder Stocks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) made its last all-time high just as lumber prices broke out above the former all-time high. ITB is down 7.3% since then. Soaring rates helped drive ITB down 5.2% in one day. The ETF is now fighting to hold support at its 50-day moving average (DMA). The combination of rising mortgage rates and record high lumber prices put significant pressure on the near-term prospects for home builder margins and consumer demand for new housing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Ud9GnHXb\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Ud9GnHXb\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Ud9GnHXb\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF<\/a> (ITB) has reversed its last two breakouts but still holds its 50DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Trade<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Time is now officially running out on <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/04\/20\/how-to-trade-seasonal-patterns-for-home-builder-stocks\/\">the seasonal trade on home builders<\/a>. In addition to the rising rates and record high lumber prices, <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/02\/25\/t2108-update-another-swift-drop-in-stocks-paved-way-for-fresh-buying-power\/\">the technicals on the stock market are leaning bearish<\/a>. Still, I deferred to the rules of the trade by buying into the latest dip. The success of buying January&#8217;s dip helped to motivate me to stick to the trading plan. As the Spring selling season warms up, I fully expect the headwinds to keep a low ceiling over the prices of home builder stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long ITB call options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mortgage rates are on the rise following record high lumber prices. Together, these measures are starting to weigh on the stocks of home builders. 30-Year Mortgage Rate The 30-Year fixed rate mortgage average in the United States hit 2.97% on Thursday, February 25th. Not only is this rate a 6-month high, but also the rise &#8230; <a title=\"Rising Mortgage Rates, Record High Lumber Prices Weigh On Home Builders\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2021\/02\/27\/rising-mortgage-rates-record-high-lumber-prices-weigh-on-home-builders\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,199,35,511,62],"tags":[2663,1206,1852,2689,1162,1161],"class_list":["post-56073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-commodities","category-housing","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-ishares-u-s-home-construction-etf","tag-itb","tag-lumber","tag-mortgage-rates","tag-nahb","tag-national-association-of-home-builders"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mortgage Rates, Record High Lumber Prices Weigh On Home Builders<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Mortgage rates are on the rise following record high lumber prices. 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