{"id":55351,"date":"2020-12-03T01:27:22","date_gmt":"2020-12-03T09:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=55351"},"modified":"2020-12-03T01:29:08","modified_gmt":"2020-12-03T09:29:08","slug":"t2108-update-bullish-kind-of-bearish-call-stock-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/12\/03\/t2108-update-bullish-kind-of-bearish-call-stock-market\/","title":{"rendered":"A Bullish Kind of Bearish Call on the Stock Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The stock market has enjoyed overbought trading conditions for the last 13 trading days and 14 of the last 15. I consider <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">the stock market overbought<\/a> when AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), trades above 70%. Overbought periods are times of mixed feelings. The stock market tends to look very strong, but the duration and\/or the extent of the strength can evoke discomfort. A pullback seems inevitable, but the timing is very difficult to gauge. Canaccord&#8217;s Tony Dwyer appeared on CNBC&#8217;s Fast Money to express a kindred discomfort. Yet his message was a bullish kind of bearish. Dwyer expects a buyable 3-5% pullback that could follow a seasonally strong December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter aligncenter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Investors might want to bundle up because Tony Dwyer of Canaccord warns the market rally is about to enter a \u201cchill zone\u201d for December. He explains why and what point is best to enter. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/QIWsKoFuBz\">pic.twitter.com\/QIWsKoFuBz<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC&#39;s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBCFastMoney\/status\/1334261607887724545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 2, 2020<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Different Overbought Signals<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"260\" height=\"260\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/AboveThe40_AnimatedLogo.gif\" alt=\"Above the 40 (Animated Logo)\" class=\"wp-image-52522\"\/><figcaption>Above the 40 (Animated Logo)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>While I scratched my head over how to interpret this message as an actionable warning, I was intrigued by Dwyer&#8217;s notions of overbought and oversold. Dwyer uses the 10DMA, a method to-date I have never seen or heard. Dwyer&#8217;s stock market hits overbought with 90% of S&amp;P 500 stocks over their respective 10DMAs and oversold when 90% trade below. The market was at the 90% over mark on November 11th and is now at 66%. Dwyer suggested this bearish divergence with the S&amp;P 500 indicates an eroding base. However, I think the problem is the indicator and not the market. A 10DMA indicator can subject a trader to more false signals as the short-term trend fluctuates sharply with natural market volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, AT40 (T2108) looks perfectly comfortable in the mid to high 70s and tells me that the <strong>average<\/strong> stock is NOT &#8220;pulling back a bit&#8221; as Dwyer says. Instead, the average stock is more milling around awaiting the next catalyst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/201202_T2108.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/201202_T2108.png\" alt=\"AT40 (T2108) is in overbought position.\" class=\"wp-image-55355\"\/><\/a><figcaption>AT40 (T2108) is in overbought position. <strong>Source: FreeStockCharts<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, is UP since November 11th and had another good day. In other words, while a <strong>few<\/strong> stocks are no longer smoking hot, more and more stocks are establishing bullish breakouts for the longer term. I claim that the longer-term breadth indicators more accurately reflect the market&#8217;s strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/201202_T2107.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/201202_T2107.png\" alt=\"AT200 (T2107) is still pushing multi-year highs.\" class=\"wp-image-55354\"\/><\/a><figcaption>AT200 (T2107) is still pushing multi-year highs. <strong>Source: FreeStockCharts<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The S&amp;P 500<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A 3-5% pullback feels like an odd concern not only in the context of expectations for an imminent leg higher in the market but also given the overall relentless rise in the S&amp;P 500. For example, the two-month decline in the index from September to October was only one of seven periods where the S&amp;P 500 dropped for two or more consecutive months. Blink and we might miss a 3-5% pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/FhRUuNhe\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/SSamsiLx\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) has relentlessly pushed higher despite the more turbulent trading of recent years. <strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/FhRUuNhe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly, Dwyer&#8217;s prediction aligns well with historic S&amp;P 500 performance after the end of an overbought period. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/11\/14\/t2108-update-overbought-trading-resumes-fresh-momentum-reopen-trade\/\">The current overbought period started on November 13th<\/a> (soon after Dwyer claims the overbought period <strong>peaked<\/strong>). Since then, the S&amp;P 500 is up 2.3%. If the overbought period ended tomorrow, the chart below suggests the index could end up with roughly a flat performance of the span of the overbought period, very close to the low end of Dwyer&#8217;s 3-5% pullback scenario. If the overbought period ends in another few days, the pullback could reach the upper range of Dwyer&#8217;s prediction. After that, a 3-5% pullback might just reverse some future breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"911\" height=\"623\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/SP500PerformanceOverbought.png\" alt=\"Performance of the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) After An Overbought Period Ends\" class=\"wp-image-47043\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/SP500PerformanceOverbought.png 911w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/SP500PerformanceOverbought-768x525.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 911px) 100vw, 911px\" \/><figcaption>Performance of the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) After An Overbought Period Ends<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Message from Currencies<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen (AUD\/JPY) confirms underlying strength in the stock market. While <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/04\/13\/why-australian-dollar-japanese-yen-matter-for-stock-traders\/\">my favorite forex indicator of market sentiment<\/a> has yet to surpass its high from the beginning of September, the currency pair is trending in the right direction. Indeed, the S&amp;P 500 and AUD\/JPY have been pretty solid traveling buddies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/yY0DLWku\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/yY0DLWku\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption>The Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen (AUD\/JPY) is on a steady rebound similar to the S&amp;P 500. <strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/yY0DLWku\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Trade<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After having quibbled with Dwyer&#8217;s market read, I remain <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/11\/05\/time-to-retreat-neutral-on-stock-market\/\">neutral on the stock market<\/a>. I am mentally prepared to respond the moment when the market&#8217;s latest fever breaks with a breakdown from overbought conditions. Unlike Dwyer&#8217;s bullish kind of bearish positioning, I will not suddenly flip bullish at that time. Without a true close encounter with oversold conditions, I will at best flip away from bearish back to neutral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long AUD\/USD, long AUD\/JPY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The stock market has enjoyed overbought trading conditions for the last 13 trading days and 14 of the last 15. I consider the stock market overbought when AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), trades above 70%. Overbought periods are times of mixed feelings. The stock market tends &#8230; <a title=\"A Bullish Kind of Bearish Call on the Stock Market\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/12\/03\/t2108-update-bullish-kind-of-bearish-call-stock-market\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[393,20,490,997,1154,62,1210],"tags":[772,65,362,225,226,2332],"class_list":["post-55351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analyst-coverage","category-forex","category-overbought","category-sp-500-analysis","category-t2108-model","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-model","tag-audjpy","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2107","tag-t2108","tag-tony-dwyer"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Bullish Kind of Bearish Call on the Stock Market<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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