{"id":55279,"date":"2020-11-26T23:26:39","date_gmt":"2020-11-27T07:26:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=55279"},"modified":"2020-11-26T23:26:41","modified_gmt":"2020-11-27T07:26:41","slug":"shift-technologies-insider-buying-drives-stock-off-all-time-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/11\/26\/shift-technologies-insider-buying-drives-stock-off-all-time-lows\/","title":{"rendered":"Shift Technologies: Insider Buying Drives Stock Off All-Time Lows"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Trade<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After a relative experienced a positive process in buying a used car from Shift Technologies (SFT) several years ago, I kept an eye out for the opportunity to invest in the company. That opportunity came this year with an acquisition by Insurance Acquisition Corp in the form of a SPAC (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/s\/spac.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Special Purpose Acquisition Company<\/a>). I bought some stock shortly after the SPAC and right before SFT broke down below important support in October . I accumulated more shares ahead of the small run-up into earnings. The stock market crushed SFT in the wake of those earnings. However, I am a bit relieved as insider buying drives the stock off fresh all-time lows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/201125_SFT-Shift-Technologies.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"766\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/201125_SFT-Shift-Technologies.png\" alt=\"Shift Technologies (SFT) soared another 22.8% in the wake of news of insider buying.\" class=\"wp-image-55281\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/201125_SFT-Shift-Technologies.png 1200w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/201125_SFT-Shift-Technologies-768x490.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Shift Technologies (SFT) soared another 22.8% in the wake of news of insider buying. <strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/JnLtcIsL\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Insider Buy<\/strong>ing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On Tuesday, November 24th, the company issued a very encouraging <a href=\"https:\/\/investors.shift.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/shift-executives-announce-purchase-shares\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">press release<\/a> to announce insider buying: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>&#8220;Shift&#8230;.announced both completed and intended purchases of SFT Class A common stock on the open market by certain executives and board members: Co-Founder and Co-CEO George Arison; Chief Operating Officer Sean Foy; Chief Revenue Officer Mark McCollum; and Board Member and Audit Committee Chair Victoria McInnis.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>While the company did not announce the amount of the insider buys (no SEC filing exists at the time of writing), the breadth of participation delivers a strong buying signal. Indeed, Shift Technologies went on to declare&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>&#8220;Our decision to purchase shares on the open market reflects our continued confidence and excitement about Shift\u2019s opportunity in the $840 billion used car market&#8230;&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock is now a clear buy-on-the-dips. Insider buying drives stock momentum. As a result, I plan to accumulate more shares, more aggressively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Opportunity<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A Seeking Alpha article published a month ago titled &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4380007-pick-shift-over-carvana-and-vroom\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Pick Shift Over Carvana And Vroom<\/a>&#8221; gives a good primer on the company&#8217;s background, operations, and the investing thesis. The valuation comparison really caught my attention: &#8220;Despite estimates for over 100% growth over the next few years, Shift is valued at a measly 1.3x 2021E revenues, or around $500mil.&#8221; Competitors Carvana (CVNA) and Vroom (VRM) sold at 4.6 and 2.4 multiples at the time. <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/SFT\/key-statistics?p=SFT\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yahoo Finance<\/a> now reports SFT at an enterprise value of $877.4M which boosts the presumed multiple to 2.2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Earnings<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/investors.shift.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/shift-announces-record-60-million-revenue-third-quarter-2020\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The first earnings report<\/a> as a publicly-traded company is even more interesting. I did not read or hear anything that tells me to throw the stock overboard like the stock market did. Here are some key highlights for the second quarter:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Year-over-year revenue growth of 31%, hitting a record $59.9M<\/li><li>Gross profit per unit flipped positive<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/investors.shift.com\/static-files\/6b8f7f57-ca38-46fd-afa9-fe7d39195389\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The detailed shareholder letter<\/a> provided the financial outlook. Here are some key highlights:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Increased Q4 revenue guidance: &#8220;in the range of $72 million to $75 million, representing 163% &#8211; 174% year over year growth, the strongest revenue growth rate in the Company\u2019s history.&#8221; Q4 revenue will also be a quarterly record for the company.<\/li><li>&#8220;Adjusted EBITDA Margin to improve by 250 &#8211; 350 basis points year over year in Q4.&#8221;<\/li><li>Gross Profit per Unit (GPU) will grow 100%-200% year-over-year which was a reduction to accommodate investments in overtime and a third party conditioning company to deal with outsized demand for used cars.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps the drop in GPU guidance is what spooked the stock market. If so, this bout of market inefficiency carved out a fantastic buying opportunity. (<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/seeing-incredible-demand-shift-ceo-194901118.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CEO Toby Russell spoke to Yahoo Finance<\/a> about the large upside opportunity for on-line sales of used cars).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long SFT, long VRM shares and short call<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Trade After a relative experienced a positive process in buying a used car from Shift Technologies (SFT) several years ago, I kept an eye out for the opportunity to invest in the company. That opportunity came this year with an acquisition by Insurance Acquisition Corp in the form of a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition &#8230; <a title=\"Shift Technologies: Insider Buying Drives Stock Off All-Time Lows\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/11\/26\/shift-technologies-insider-buying-drives-stock-off-all-time-lows\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":55281,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[368,338],"tags":[453,2595,2596,1872],"class_list":["post-55279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-automotive","category-retail","tag-insider-stock-buy","tag-sft","tag-shift-technologies","tag-used-cars"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Shift Technologies: Insider Buying Drives Stock Off All-Time Lows<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Online used car seller Shift Technologies sold off heavily post-earnings. 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