{"id":5490,"date":"2011-06-15T13:10:23","date_gmt":"2011-06-15T17:10:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=5490"},"modified":"2011-06-15T13:10:23","modified_gmt":"2011-06-15T17:10:23","slug":"judgment-day-rimm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/06\/15\/judgment-day-rimm\/","title":{"rendered":"Judgment Day for Research In Motion Could Yield Upside Surprise"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/274954-judgment-day-for-research-in-motion-could-yield-upside-surprise\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Trailing P\/E and forward P\/E both below 6<\/li>\n<li>Price\/Sales below 1<\/li>\n<li>$2.12 billion in cash on the balance sheet<\/li>\n<li>Zero debt<\/li>\n<li>Double digit profit margins<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sounds like a steal, especially for a technology company (valuation metrics from <a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q\/ks?s=RIMM+Key+Statistics\">Yahoo!Finance<\/a>). Except this company is Research In Motion (RIMM), a company dogged by competitive pressures&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The chart below shows that shorts in RIMM increased around 50% close to multi-year highs just ahead of its earnings warning (ok &#8211; who let the news leak?). During the subsequent drop, around half that gain has been closed out (as of May 31, 2011). I was expecting short interest to continue soaring.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5492\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5492\" style=\"width: 482px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/110614_RIMMShortInterest.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/110614_RIMMShortInterest.jpg\" alt=\"Short interest in RIMM has declined ahead of earnings\" title=\"Short interest in RIMM has declined ahead of earnings\" width=\"492\" height=\"381\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5492\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/110614_RIMMShortInterest.jpg 492w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/110614_RIMMShortInterest-300x232.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 492px) 100vw, 492px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5492\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Short interest in RIMM has declined ahead of earnings<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/aspxcontent\/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=RIMM&#038;selected=RIMM\">NASDAQ.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The put\/call ratio for RIMM reveals very little fear in the options pits for RIMM&#8217;s earnings (see <a href=\"http:\/\/www.schaeffersresearch.com\/streetools\/indicators\/putcall_open_interest_ratio.aspx?TICKER=RIMM\">Schaeffer&#8217;s Research for charts<\/a>). While the put\/call ratio spiked rapidly in mid-May from 0.66 to 0.80, the current levels are a far cry from the one-year high reached in February at 1.35&#8230;.you guessed it, just ahead of a 10-month peak for RIMM. The stock has tumbled downhill ever since. <\/p>\n<p>In other words, declining short interest and listless put buying suggest that the market, in general, is not anticipating calamity. For RIMM these days, even a &#8220;non-calamity&#8221; is good news. <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The June $37.50 call seems to provide an efficient way to dare to make this speculative bet&#8230;.{snip}&#8230;. <\/p>\n<p>Note that in Canadian dollars, RIMM broke the dreaded &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/080629_PsychologyOfATripleBottom.htm\">triple bottom<\/a>&#8221; weeks ago<\/a>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5502\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5502\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/110614_RIMM.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/110614_RIMM.jpg\" alt=\"In the land up north, RIMM has already broken through the dreaded triple bottom\" title=\"In the land up north, RIMM has already broken through the dreaded triple bottom\" width=\"525\" height=\"480\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5502\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/110614_RIMM.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/110614_RIMM-300x274.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5502\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">In the land up north, RIMM has already broken through the dreaded triple bottom<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/globe-investor\/markets\/stocks\/chart\/?q=RIM-T\">Globe and Mail<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long RIMM shares and puts, long AAPL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Trailing P\/E and forward P\/E both below 6 Price\/Sales below 1 $2.12 billion in cash on the balance sheet Zero debt Double digit profit margins Sounds like a steal, especially for a technology company (valuation &#8230; <a title=\"Judgment Day for Research In Motion Could Yield Upside Surprise\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/06\/15\/judgment-day-rimm\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,219],"tags":[253,252,419],"class_list":["post-5490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-high-tech","tag-research-in-motion","tag-rimm","tag-short-interest"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Judgment Day for Research In Motion Could Yield Upside Surprise - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/06\/15\/judgment-day-rimm\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Judgment Day for Research In Motion Could Yield Upside Surprise - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. 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