{"id":54646,"date":"2020-09-27T21:14:55","date_gmt":"2020-09-28T04:14:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=54646"},"modified":"2020-09-27T21:14:58","modified_gmt":"2020-09-28T04:14:58","slug":"t2108-update-oversold-stock-market-conditions-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/09\/27\/t2108-update-oversold-stock-market-conditions-end\/","title":{"rendered":"Oversold Stock Market Conditions End With An Immediate Challenge &#8211; Above the 40 (September 25, 2020)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Statistics<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>AT40<\/strong> = 23.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 2-day oversold period)<br><strong>AT200<\/strong> = 38.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs<br><strong>VIX<\/strong> = 26.4<br><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/09\/23\/t2108-update-oversold-with-plenty-of-downside-risk\/\">The oversold period<\/a> lasted just two days, a typical length of time for oversold periods. The oversold stock market conditions end with an immediate challenge. The stock market&#8217;s next challenge sits just overhead in the form of resistance from 50-day moving averages (DMAs) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ (COMPX). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) treated the 2019 close as perfect support. The index touched this support four out of the last 5 days. Friday&#8217;s 1.6% gain took the S&amp;P 500 back to the top of the channel formed by its lower Bollinger Bands (BB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_SP500-Standard-And-Poors-500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_SP500-Standard-And-Poors-500.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) bounced perfectly off its 2009 close for a 1.6% gain.\" class=\"wp-image-54660\"\/><\/a><figcaption>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) bounced perfectly off its 2009 close for a 1.6% gain.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQX) is not constrained by the channel formed by its lower BB. Overhead resistance from the 50DMA sits directly overhead after a 2.3% gain on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_NASDAQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_NASDAQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQX) gained 2.3% in a rush to challenge yet again its 50DMA resistance.\" class=\"wp-image-54659\"\/><\/a><figcaption>The NASDAQ (COMPQX) gained 2.3% in a rush to challenge yet again its 50DMA resistance.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Small caps have a different challenge. The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) is trying its best to avoid a bearish 200DMA breakdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-Index-Fund-ETF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_IWM-iShares-Russell-2000-Index-Fund-ETF.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) rebounded from 200DMA support with a 1.6% gain.\" class=\"wp-image-54662\"\/><\/a><figcaption>The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) rebounded from 200DMA support with a 1.6% gain.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) never got going much last week. Outside of two days, the VIX essentially refused to confirm the selling pressures in September. However, with all the presumed economic, political, and macro risks facing the stock market, I am still treating a languid volatility index as an opportunity to buy backside protection on the cheap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_VIX-volatility-index.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_VIX-volatility-index.png\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) faded into a 7.5% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-54658\"\/><\/a><figcaption>The volatility index (VIX) faded into a 7.5% loss.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT40 (T2108)<\/a>, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, popped out of a 2-day oversold period and closed at 23.3%. The conservative oversold trade triggers buys after the end of the oversold period. I already made purchases during the oversold period, and I am not interested in adding more until the next confirmation of bullish sentiment. A 50DMA breakout for the S&amp;P 500 will do the trick. At that point, I will switch from cautiously bullish to bullish and assume downside risks are greatly diminished. However, I am looking to go into that next bullish phase with a clean slate after taking profits on the early oversold buys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As usual, I will take the next steps one day at a time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Chart Reviews &#8211; Below the 50DMA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Walt Disney Company<\/strong> (DIS)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is fighting to hold on to 200DMA support. If the fight fails, DIS is likely headed to a fill of July&#8217;s post-earnings gap up. Recall that a lot of stocks gave up post-earnings gains in this month&#8217;s sell-off. I have DIS on my shopping list if\/when it closes above its 50DMA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_DIS-Disney.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_DIS-Disney.png\" alt=\"Disney (DIS) gained 1.2% as it clings to 200DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-54657\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Disney (DIS) gained 1.2% as it clings to 200DMA support.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Boeing<\/strong> (BA)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Boeing (BA) last peaked in June and has not been the same since. Resistance at its 50DMA has held firm for almost two months. If the market turns bearish again, BA goes on my shorting list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_BA-Boeing.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_BA-Boeing.png\" alt=\"Boeing (BA) jumped 6.8% but remains in a downtrend under 50DMA resistance.\" class=\"wp-image-54656\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Boeing (BA) jumped 6.8% but remains in a downtrend under 50DMA resistance.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Qualys<\/strong> (QLYS)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Qualys (QLYS) is one of the few stocks I sell call options against. I am putting those sales on hold as the stock attempts to confirm a 200DMA breakout. I will go back to the regularly scheduled programming at 50DMA resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_QLYS-Qualys.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_QLYS-Qualys.png\" alt=\"Qualys (QLYS) gained 1.7% and ended a 200DMA breakdown.\" class=\"wp-image-54653\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Qualys (QLYS) gained 1.7% and ended a 200DMA breakdown.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Chart Reviews &#8211; Above the 50DMA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Caterpillar<\/strong> (CAT)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With market sentiment turning around, I did something I have not done in a very long time: I went long Caterpillar (CAT). I bought a single October call to speculate on 50DMA support holding and acting like a launching pad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_CAT-Caterpillar.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_CAT-Caterpillar.png\" alt=\"Caterpillar (CAT) gained 0.5% as it levitates above 50DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-54655\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Caterpillar (CAT) gained 0.5% as it levitates above 50DMA support.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Lithium Americas Corp<\/strong> (LAC)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>An <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/rbowley\/message\/244210999\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">online friend alerted me<\/a> to Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) on September 16th. Given my bearish market posture at the time I tucked LAC on to the shelf. A 50DMA test later, and I jumped in. Elon Musk&#8217;s comments about battery shortages for Tesla (TSLA) pushed me to move. The market sold LAC on the news presumably because battery manufacturing constraints could lead to a glut of lithium. Even if a glut unfolds, the situation should be  short-term as the industry rushes to increase manufacturing capacity and in turn ramp the demand of lithium right up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_LAC-Lithium-Americas-Corp.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_LAC-Lithium-Americas-Corp.png\" alt=\"Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) soared 18.9% a day after a minor 50DMA breakdown.\" class=\"wp-image-54654\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) soared 18.9% a day after a minor 50DMA breakdown.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Upwork<\/strong> (UPWK)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Upwork (UPWK) is finally waking up again. I like the way UPWK held 50DMA support after the post-earnings pullback. I looked to sell calls against my position, but the premiums were too low. The options pricing suggests the market expects little near-term upside from here. Still, I am sticking with UPWK (<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/tag\/upwk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">click here to see past analysis on UPWK<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_UPWK-Upwork.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_UPWK-Upwork.png\" alt=\"Upwork (UPWK) jumped 9.7% and closed near its pre-earnings high\" class=\"wp-image-54652\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Upwork (UPWK) jumped 9.7% and closed near its pre-earnings high<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bullish 200DMA Breakout<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Martin Marrietta Materials<\/strong> (MLM)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Now that I am bullish again, I am re-introducing the bullish 200DMA breakout section. Martin Marrietta Materials (MLM) is attractive because it is in the materials space that I prefer for bullish plays going forward. Recall that I was concerned about MLM just a month ago after a 50DMA breakdown. MLM spent a few weeks working through that resistance on the way to the current challenge of 200DMA resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_MLM-Martin-Marietta-Materials.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/200925_MLM-Martin-Marietta-Materials.png\" alt=\"Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) gained 2.3%, closed a previous gap down, and defended 200DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-54650\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) gained 2.3%, closed a previous gap down, and defended 200DMA support.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212; &#8211; &#8212;<br>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<center><br>\n<strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/feedburner.google.com\/fb\/a\/mailverify?uri=onetwentytwo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">email<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><br>\n<\/center>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 40&#8221; uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) to assess the technical health of the stock market and to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Abbreviated as AT40, Above the 40 is an alternative label for &#8220;T2108&#8221; which was created by <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\" target=\"_blank\">Worden<\/a>. Learn more about T2108 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or T2107, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Active AT40 (T2108) periods<\/strong>: Day #1 over 20% (overperiod ended 2 oversold days), Day #3 under 30% (underperiod), Day #5 under 40%, Day #14 under 50%, Day #16 under 60%, Day #19 under 70% (note I failed to update these numbers in <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/09\/23\/t2108-update-oversold-with-plenty-of-downside-risk\/\">the last AT40 post<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<center><br>\n<strong>Daily AT40 (T2108)<\/strong><br>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"T2108 (DAILY)\" src=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\"><\/a><\/figure><p><\/p>\n<p>Black line: AT40 (T2108) (% measured on the right)<br>\nRed line: Overbought threshold (70%); Blue line: Oversold threshold (20%)<br>\n<\/p><\/center>\n\n\n\n<center><br>\n<strong>Weekly AT40 (T2108)<\/strong><br>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Weekly T2108\" src=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\" alt=\"Weekly T2108\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\"><\/a><\/figure><br>\n*<strong>All charts created using <\/strong><strong>FreeStockCharts<\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center>\n\n\n\n<p>The T2108 charts above are my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given AT40 post. For my latest AT40 post <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/tag\/t2108\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure<\/strong>: long QQQ put spread, long UVXY, long QLYS, long UPWK, long CAT call, long LAC<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: FreeStockCharts stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. TradingView.com charts for currencies use Tokyo time as the start of the forex trading day. FreeStockCharts currency charts are based on Eastern U.S. time to define the trading day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 23.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 2-day oversold period)AT200 = 38.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 26.4Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The oversold period lasted just two days, a typical length of time for oversold periods. &#8230; <a title=\"Oversold Stock Market Conditions End With An Immediate Challenge &#8211; Above the 40 (September 25, 2020)\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/09\/27\/t2108-update-oversold-stock-market-conditions-end\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,1303,482,199,1576,219,43,1312,1311,62,518],"tags":[1819,2031,2032,64,930,1955,1578,915,909,2535,2536,2399,1927,413,1292,2537,65,362,226,2449,2124,2410,303,931],"class_list":["post-54646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-bottom","category-breakout","category-commodities","category-entertainment","category-high-tech","category-industrial-sector","category-manufacturing-2","category-software","category-technical-analysis","category-transportation","tag-at40","tag-ba","tag-boeing","tag-cat","tag-caterpillar","tag-compqx","tag-dis","tag-ishares-russell-2000-index-fund-etf","tag-iwm","tag-lac","tag-lithium-americas-corp","tag-martin-marietta-materials","tag-mlm","tag-nasdaq","tag-qlys","tag-qualys","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2108","tag-the-walt-disney-company","tag-upwk","tag-upwork","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oversold Stock Market Conditions End With An Immediate Challenge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oversold stock market conditions ended after just two days. 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