{"id":53951,"date":"2020-08-02T17:00:28","date_gmt":"2020-08-03T00:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=53951"},"modified":"2020-08-04T01:07:27","modified_gmt":"2020-08-04T08:07:27","slug":"bitcoin-false-breakout-creates-pause-that-refreshes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/08\/02\/bitcoin-false-breakout-creates-pause-that-refreshes\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin: A False $12K Breakout Creates the Pause That Refreshes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Trees do not grow to the sky &#8211; even cryptocurrency trees with Bitcoin leaves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The old adage describes a core rule of the physics of price momentum. Whether buying or selling, traders and investors eventually exhaust themselves &#8211; whether existing resources are too low to maintain buying pressure or motivated sellers finally run out of inventory to dump on the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the case of Bitcoin&#8217;s current run-up, exhaustion happened right at the $12K level. More specifically, as soon as Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) broke above and then dipped below that psychologically important level, a wave of sellers jumped in likely afraid the run came to a sudden end on a false $12K breakout. I imagine the price action triggered stops below the $12K level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_BTCUSD-Bitcoin.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"774\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_BTCUSD-Bitcoin.png\" alt=\"The 15-minute chart of Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) shows how quickly the breakout above $12K was met by profit-taking and selling on high volume. Buyers are now struggling to hold $10,500 to $10,900 as support.\" class=\"wp-image-53959\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_BTCUSD-Bitcoin.png 1200w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_BTCUSD-Bitcoin-768x495.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>The 15-minute chart of Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) shows how quickly the breakout above $12K was met by profit-taking and selling on high volume. Buyers are now struggling to hold $10,500 to $10,900 as support.<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/MABJ8oBh\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/06\/30\/how-to-use-google-trend-momentum-check-with-bitcoin-prices\/\">Google Trend Momentum Check (GTMC)<\/a> suggests that the Bitcoin breakout is not yet over even in the short-term (I am getting more and more comfortable using GTMC as a trading signal). Neither the $10K breakout nor the subsequent run-up attracted a significant spike in search interest in &#8220;Bitcoin.&#8221; The jump in interest on July 27th and 28th paled in comparison even to the jump on May 11th when Bitcoin experienced a sharp and brief pull back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_Google-Trends-Bitcoin.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1139\" height=\"819\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_Google-Trends-Bitcoin.jpg\" alt=\"Google search trends for Bitcoin jumped in late July along with the $10K breakout but stopped far short of Mays's surge and interest quickly waned from there.\" class=\"wp-image-53957\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_Google-Trends-Bitcoin.jpg 1139w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_Google-Trends-Bitcoin-768x552.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1139px) 100vw, 1139px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Google search trends for Bitcoin jumped in late July along with the $10K breakout but stopped far short of Mays&#8217;s surge and interest quickly waned from there.<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?date=today%203-m&amp;q=bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Google Trends<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>So for now, I am sticking with the trading strategy I discussed in my last Bitcoin post equating <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/07\/26\/bitcoin-one-more-bet-continued-us-dollar-breakdown\/\" target=\"_blank\">Bitcoin to an anti-dollar trade<\/a>. I am chasing momentum higher so I am buying pullbacks in the middle of the run-up (note this strategy is exactly opposite <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/03\/21\/quick-hopeful-case-for-new-bitcoin-bottom\/\">the strategy I followed when Bitcoin crashed along with financial markets in March<\/a>). Even though the current pause looks like a refresher before the next leg higher, I did not buy the current pullback: prices are right around levels of the last pullback where I added to my position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am also eyeing the U.S. dollar index (DXY) which looks set up for a relief rally. The U.S. dollar suffered tremendous and persistent selling pressure through most of July. A small rebound similar to the one in the second half of June is very possible. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_DXY-US-Dollar-Index.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"645\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_DXY-US-Dollar-Index.png\" alt=\"The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is suffering tremendous downward pressure. Some buying on Friday has the look of initial sparks for a relief rally.\" class=\"wp-image-53958\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_DXY-US-Dollar-Index.png 1000w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/200802_DXY-US-Dollar-Index-768x495.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is suffering tremendous downward pressure. Some buying on Friday has the look of initial sparks for a relief rally.<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/XxM681gn\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>I am not expecting Bitcoin to pull back much in the face of a relief rally for the U.S. dollar index. Bitcoin slowly drifted downward during June&#8217;s dollar rebound. Even if a sharp pullback happens, I will remain patient through the move. The downward trend in the dollar is just beginning given the massive amount of devaluation happening between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government&#8217;s largesse in response to the economic emergencies driven by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long BTC\/USD, long and short various U.S. dollar currency pairs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trees do not grow to the sky &#8211; even cryptocurrency trees with Bitcoin leaves. The old adage describes a core rule of the physics of price momentum. Whether buying or selling, traders and investors eventually exhaust themselves &#8211; whether existing resources are too low to maintain buying pressure or motivated sellers finally run out of &#8230; <a title=\"Bitcoin: A False $12K Breakout Creates the Pause That Refreshes\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/08\/02\/bitcoin-false-breakout-creates-pause-that-refreshes\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,1974,921,20,62,21,920],"tags":[602,1958,2187,2049,1164,2222,1838],"class_list":["post-53951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-cryptocurrency-forex","category-downtrend","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","category-uptrend","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc-usd","tag-btcusd","tag-dxy","tag-google-trends","tag-google-trends-momentum-check","tag-u-s-dollar-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin: A False $12K Breakout Creates the Pause That Refreshes - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/08\/02\/bitcoin-false-breakout-creates-pause-that-refreshes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin: A False $12K Breakout Creates the Pause That Refreshes - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Trees do not grow to the sky &#8211; even cryptocurrency trees with Bitcoin leaves. 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The old adage describes a core rule of the physics of price momentum. Whether buying or selling, traders and investors eventually exhaust themselves &#8211; whether existing resources are too low to maintain buying pressure or motivated sellers finally run out of ... 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